London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[yamkin]

Had a look at the charts for you guys and Monday is defiantly the one to watch, the potential is there for heavy disruptive snowfall. This is all quite far away so things will change, ideally you want the precipitation to move further north if you Live in the London are or further south you live in Kent.

MetO's 6-15 day outlook is interesting for snow in the Southern and Eastern parts:

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 3 Mar 2010:

An area of rain, probably falling as snow on high ground, and perhaps to lower levels for a time, is expected to affect southern and eastern parts of the U.K. for a time Monday, followed by clearer skies and a frost in many parts Monday night. Thereafter, unsettled weather is likely to continue throughout the last week of February and into the first part of March. Further showers or longer outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely, which could turn to snow at times in the north, and over high ground. Some brighter, clearer spells will also occur, with some overnight frost likely. Although on the cold side of average for much of the period, temperatures are likely to rise to near the average in the south at times.

Updated: 1200 on Wed 17 Feb 2010

[thegreat316]

cold Uppers further south on the 12z, Every GFS run seems to bring em further south.

liking the snow fest on the t+72 hour chart, if only i could see that at t+06

[ZONE 51]

the latest GFS run has increased snow chances for more of us in the SE over next few days. models are changing frequently to were the risk for snow is .

Edited February 17, 2010 by nimbilus

[yamkin]

cold Uppers further south on the 12z, Every GFS run seems to bring em further south.

liking the snow fest on the t+72 hour chart, if only i could see that at t+06

To add to your chart, here are some more

[thegreat316]

To add to your chart, here are some more

Lol, if these came off the folks up in the midlands would moan, cause we stealing there weekend snow!

[ZONE 51]

before i look at yamkins charts the bbc say

UK Warnings

Last updated at 13:20, Wednesday 17 February

Weather Warning

Tuesday 16 February( thats gone?)

EARLY WARNING

Rain in southwest England overnight will turn to snow as it crosses southern England, eastern Wales, The Midlands and Lincolnshire during Thursday. Up to 10cm may fall, especially across high ground

Further updates will appear here.bbc weather warnings

Edited February 17, 2010 by nimbilus

[thegreat316]

before i look at yamkins charts the bbc say

UK Warnings

Last updated at 13:20, Wednesday 17 February

Weather Warning

Tuesday 16 February

EARLY WARNING

Rain in southwest England overnight will turn to snow as it crosses southern England, eastern Wales, The Midlands and Lincolnshire during Thursday. Up to 10cm may fall, especially across high ground

Further updates will appear here.bbc weather warnings

the front moving up from the south west, looks like being a rain event for most of us, more north western parts of the S.E should hopefully see rain to snow. Not untill the weekend will the conditions be right for snow

Latest NAE +36-48

Edited February 17, 2010 by thegreat316

[ZONE 51]

updated today but still says tuesdayof course its for thursday but ...

Edited February 17, 2010 by nimbilus

[thegreat316]

updated today but still says tuesdayof course its for thursday but ...

That may have been for todays event, dont know. tomorrows event looks to be going a very similar way to todays. South east just missing out:wallbash:

Edited February 17, 2010 by thegreat316

[ZONE 51]

dew points i know, but theres always hail

Edited February 17, 2010 by nimbilus

[Lazarus]

dew points i know, but theres always hail

I've yet to see a REALLY huge hailstorm. Pencil me in for one tomorrow ok? Golf ball (oh, hang on, my car!) pea sized & at least a foot in an hour please! :lol:

[West Sussex Kate]

monday lookin good, cant take this stress again tho LOL!!

[Guest FireStorm]

i think there is the risk of hail cover tomorow in the se

Where do you see this? CAPE values by 12z GFS of 200 J/Kg do not look that supportive of hail generally and with temperatures above freezing during the day wouldn't support a covering of hail I'd have thought

[Weathizard]

To add to your chart, here are some more :winky:

Nothing like a good bit of ramping is there.

[Guest archiesmummy]

monday lookin good, cant take this stress again tho LOL!!

LOL am with you there! Am so excited for Mon its the anticipation, i might not look on here til sun eve........

no good i need to get my will it/wont it snow fix!!!!!!

love it when Yamkin is ramping!

[<<Ryan>>]

even better :lol:

[slb97]

That would be fab especially as it's my birthday!!! What a great present that would be but feet still firmly on the ground here....

[wee]

Hi guys ,when will we know if this is likely to happen? Like you slb97 i am trying to keep my excitement under wraps and feet def stuck to the floor he he

[yamkin]

Hi guys ,when will we know if this is likely to happen? Like you slb97 i am trying to keep my excitement under wraps and feet def stuck to the floor he he

Hi wee, if you are referring to Saturday, best check this regional thread plus charts on Friday. The same applies for Monday's event if you know what I mean.

BBC London showed snow on Friday & Saturday on their chart

[wee]

Hi wee, if you are referring to Saturday, best check this regional thread plus charts on Friday. The same applies for Monday's event if you know what I mean.

BBC London showed snow on Friday & Saturday on their chart

Hi Yamkin thanks for the reply,will keep one eye on the charts and the other on this thread,lets just hope this is one that comes off and we all get some good amounts before winter is over .

[steve1971]

please dont get to excited just seen update looks like rain on coast even inland areas at times //just wish i was wrong.

[wee]

please dont get to excited just seen update looks like rain on coast even inland areas at times //just wish i was wrong.

oh,burst my bubble lol,to be honest we have had a good winter and i am happy with what we have had,but not saying i wouldnt like one last dumping .

[wee]

Well its very quiet in here tonight,i am off to bed and wanted to say it is very cold here a frost already on the shed,car ,roof tops ,but very clear skys and crisp.

[snowydayz]

Yamkin is that you mentioning snow again

[thegreat316]

There are two main areas of snow risk Saturday and sunday night/monday.

The 12z GFS had the patten further south meaning we had more chance of snow on the saturday event but had the sunday night snowefest in the channel.

the 18z has the patten further north. More rain then snow on saturday, still could be a bit around, But a lot of snow coming in from the channel reaching much of the south east on sunday night.

you choose which is better.

dont forget, that there still is a chance of snow tomorrow night in the northern half of our region, the meto raw output has this further south.