London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[snowray]

Saying all that has been said the 12z ECM goes for a very snowy outlook for our region for Monday, so still quite a lot of uncertainty yet, we can't rule out anything just yet it seems, the 18z runs will be most interesting!

Certainly does, just as I had lost all hope, up pops the ECM....why is it always such an almighty struggle!??? Wouldn't mind if we were talking about charts out at T180 or something.

[snowray]

Certainly does, just as I had lost all hope, up pops the ECM....why is it always such an almighty struggle!??? Wouldn't mind if we were talking about charts out at T180 or something.

Having said that, still too warm even on the ECM.

Yet again its only a few miles too far north though, if it could just shift about 30-50 miles further South then game on maybe.

Edited February 18, 2010 by snowray

[thegreat316]

Well this mornings GFS 00z run had this feature and tonights 12z from ECM seems to also have it running up the Channel, or close to. The GFS 06z and both GFS and UKMO 12z though have this feature way, way too far north, so only rain would be guaranteed for the SE.

Must say I've not been all that impressed with the GFS 06z or 12z runs of late, and contrary to what has historically been the oposite, I have found both 00z and 18z more acurate since the upgrade in December, they seem to keep things a bit further South and are less progressive.

UKMO has not been much cop, so I think it would be interesting to see if tonights GFS 18z runs with the ECM, which is looking rather tasty again.

Great summary. People like me right on the south coast still wouldent see much if any snow on tonights ecm, very hard for snow to fall on the coast in this setup due to the flow of the wind.

Just want to see one great snowfall event for london, they really have not seen that much this year. By tonights ECM there could still be one last hurrah.

Lets hope for us in the south east the pattern gets shifted even further south

Having said that, still too warm even on the ECM.

Yet again its only a few miles too far north though, if it could just shift about 30-50 miles further South then game on maybe.

Yes, but its still good to see the uppers further south then on the GFS 18Z, Lets see where the trend lies after tomorrows 0z ECM.

wouldent be surprised if it shifts further south as t+0 arrives. maybe wishful thinking on my part

Edited February 18, 2010 by thegreat316

[kold weather]

Too warm for Kent thats true, but probably for the London region northwards that would be very much a 50-50 shot, its marginal thats for sure but every single event is going to be marginal I suspect from now on, still I'd rather take a risk with the 12z ECM rather then have utterly zero chance on the 12z GFS/UKMO which shunt the fun right up into Scotland.

[Beasterly]

Holy Moley! Huge flakes falling out of the sky at the moment! Snow starting to settle on almost all the surfaces and even starting to cover the puddles. LOL!

[stewfox]

Too warm for Kent thats true, but probably for the London region northwards that would be very much a 50-50 shot, its marginal thats for sure but every single event is going to be marginal I suspect from now on, still I'd rather take a risk with the 12z ECM rather then have utterly zero chance on the 12z GFS/UKMO which shunt the fun right up into Scotland.

Raining in North Oxfordshire so dont get your hopes up

[stewfox]

Raining in North Oxfordshire so dont get your hopes up

You have to laugh the rain now turn to wet snow

[stewfox]

You have to laugh the rain now turn to wet snow

I cant be the only house in the whole of the South East where its snowing

Very lonely in this thread

Settling everywhere moderate snow

[wee]

I cant be the only house in the whole of the South East where its snowing

Very lonely in this thread

Settling everywhere moderate snow

You lucky thing,dont feel lonely feel happy that you have snow,i wish i had some its just been wet and some pretty big downpours today and tonight and only of rain.

[XLNC]

Here in Reading Berks we got rain??

[yamkin]

COAMPS 12Z 60h is showing snow in the SE

Edited February 18, 2010 by yamkin

[Callie]

COAMPS 12Z 60h is showing snow in the SE

Hmmm had heavy rain here half an hour ago.

[stewfox]

Here in Reading Berks we got rain??

I work in Reading and drove up A34 at 6pm in heavy rain (4c) and you could see the temp drop just in 30 miles (2c)

Get in your car drive a few miles north

Snow everywhere , it settle fairly quickly as well had moderate snow now for 90 mins (guess 1c)

[yamkin]

Both WMC 12Z and COMAPS 12Z 850hpa are showing very good uppers. I have a feeling the SE are in for snow surprises from Saturday :lol:

[stewfox]

Both WMC 12Z and COMAPS 12Z 850hpa are showing very good uppers. I have a feeling the SE are in for snow surprises from Saturday

I am assuming only oxfordshire have snow in the current set up ,in the South East ?, hence why its so quite in here ?

If its rain in reading what about south Oxfordshire any reports from there ? Would be interesting where the line is

Must be right on the edge

what surprised how quickly it settled

[wee]

Both WMC 12Z and COMAPS 12Z 850hpa are showing very good uppers. I have a feeling the SE are in for snow surprises from Saturday

Hi Yamkin,does that mean the south coast aswell? or is it still likely to be rain here?

[wintrywend]

Thanks yamkin you always keep me positive. Rain rain and more rain here.

[yamkin]

I am assuming only oxfordshire have snow in the current set up ,in the South East ?, hence why its so quite in here ?

If its rain in reading what about south Oxfordshire any reports from there ? Would be interesting where the line is

Must be right on the edge

what surprised how quickly it settled

The MetO called your area correct for snow which is great. Interested to know how much you get tonight.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Last winter NOAA commented at one of their sessions about a late winter retrograde feature that can appear on the Mongolian plains and can cause a low level global torque which can in turn enhance blocking features. That is to put it in simple terms.

It has appeared again this time around but with much lower upper 850's in the mix.

Worth looking out for this in forthcoming meetings by these chaps, because it could influence the end of February evolution towards the next easterly. A bitter one at that

I would expect the WMC Moscow model to pick up on this first - watch for ensemble members diving off the bottom of the chart

Edited February 18, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[thegreat316]

Our saturday event has shifted much further south,

Turns out to be a non-event

Further ups and downs will occur still though im sure

THX Tamara great to have your input in here. If you mention cold in the model thread Badboys will giver his usual mild speech.

Edited February 18, 2010 by thegreat316

[stewfox]

The MetO called your area correct for snow which is great. Interested to know how much you get tonight.

On BBC Oxford (going up A34) they were playing raining men at 5.55pm (heavy rain)

Advisory came out 6pm, forcast before totally different

Still snowing now nealry 2hrs and might be in for 7/8 cm total ? at low level

radar suggest im in a good location (ox25)

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[yamkin]

Some wintry GFS 18Z charts up to Saturday :lol:

Edited February 18, 2010 by yamkin

[wee]

Going to get an early night guys as i have a date tomorrow and also cant take much more in will it or wont it? lets just hope we all get a total whiteout lol,night all.

[thegreat316]

Got to laugh 18z GFS has saturdays event to far south, and has mondays event to far north. we might not even get rain here now. Expect many changes

Could get back edge snow on monday, thats somthing

Edited February 18, 2010 by thegreat316

[yamkin]

Monday looks interesting for a time. Sky News also showed snow in the SE

As the ppn pushes from the West, colder uppers covers the SE.

Edited February 18, 2010 by yamkin