3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 9

[kold weather]

Some big uncertainties about how quickly the front decays, the 0z NAE was very progressive in weakening the system, however the 06z runs are much better and thus crertainly a decent snow risk for northern parts of this region at least and the threat may well extend almost into Suffolk looking at some of the models.

Eye, I'd certainly be excited if I was you, the timing on the models are perfect for settling snow IMO in both your region and the East Midlands.

[jimben]

It is remarkable that heavy snow I am seeing is only coming from light/dark blue echo's on the NW radar (beta version). NN3

Edited February 18, 2010 by jimben

[Ben_Cambs]

I look forward to later this evening, its good to see that in the heavier bursts of rain there are snow flakes mixed in aswell, the NAE has me just within the snow this evening, an interesting set of 12z's to come later

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=12&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

[Mr_Pessimistic]

bet i only get rain here in south norfolk. as usual.

[Mrsf16]

Heads up TEITS... snow just started here!

[pinball wizard]

It's been interesting here today, very cold overnight with freezing fog - the fog slowly cleared around about 11am (am guessing this was as the warmer air aloft began mixing out the cooler air at the surface). Rain started about an hour ago, occasioanlly with sleetiness for a while in the heavier bursts, now just rain. Temp 2c, dp 1.5c. Will need both temp and dp to reduce by 1.5 to 2c for any snow in south east Suffolk.

[stormchaser.co.uk]

Chucking it down here in Borehamwood, Hertfordshire!

[Ben_Cambs]

Personally Im not expecting snow reports from this region until around 6pm onwards, as the colder air in the LP is still out in the West Midlands. raining here with some flakes of snow mixed in.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Snowman0697

[kold weather]

Yeah I agree snowman any snowfall is going to have to wait to the eveing hours, the great thing is this area is rather favoured thanks due to the timing of the system, my only fear is if a NAE evolution occured which would mean the front undergoes thermal collapse as the cold air reduces the thermal gradient, esp as the system wil lbe fully matured by then and another LP will be developing upstream in the Atlantic which will sap some energy away from the LP over us.

If that does happen then 3-5cms would be the logical outcome...but there is a risk for more I agree...esp because as I said your going to have the front stay with you throughout the whole eveing and snow reports should become widespread during those hours.

[jimben]

Still snowing moderate to heavy, close to 1cm on bin and now settling on all surfaces

[TEITS]

Snow has arrived, didn't even start as sleet or rain!

[pinball wizard]

Snow has arrived, didn't even start as sleet or rain!

Alright for some LOL. Hope you enjoy it mate, and if you're feeling generous send some this way, damn the icy rain!!

[kold weather]

Still snowing moderate to heavy, close to 1cm on bin and now settling on all surfaces

Yep that height is going to have really helped, I suspect you could get quite a lot of snow today if this keeps up, you'll probably end up with 10-15cms IMO depending on the exact track of the front, if it ends up taking a slightly more due east track then your going to cop it!

[Mrsf16]

Snow has arrived, didn't even start as sleet or rain!

Fluctuating between sleet and snow here not settling this side of town! See you at Tescos later TEITS? lol

[TEITS]

Fluctuating between sleet and snow here not settling this side of town! See you at Tescos later TEITS? lol

Yes not quiet heavy enough just yet. We need to wait until we're under the yellows/greens on the radar rather than the blues.

Conditions are excellent though with temps at 0C, DPs -1C. Just need that intial heavy burst to kick start the settling.

[BucksSnow]

heavy rain in high wycombe

do i have any chance of seeing anything

[Mrsf16]

Yes not quiet heavy enough just yet. We need to wait until we're under the yellows/greens on the radar rather than the blues.

Conditions are excellent though with temps at 0C, DPs -1C. Just need that intial heavy burst to kick start the settling.

Big fat flakes falling thick and fast here!

[Mrsf16]

And now back to the more skinnier stuff! The big fat flakes were doing so well too!!

[huntso]

Time for the family to return to base by the sounds of it then

Still raining here

[BucksSnow]

Still rain in high wycombe

Hope some snow

does anyone think i will

[Mrsf16]

Time for the family to return to base by the sounds of it then

Still raining here

Not settling on roads, but they are v wet. Starting to give a VERY light covering on grass. Hope they get home easily!

[John London]

If you're into rain this is the place to be, it's settling as well.

[huntso]

Thanks Mrsf for the weather reports and best wishes, good idea for them to to leave now before it gets any worse when its dark

Hope you get a good dumping there, never know it might even break through the St Ives snowshield for the first time this year

[Ben_Cambs]

Still rain in high wycombe

Hope some snow

does anyone think i will

Its unlikely according to the NAE model that places south and west of Cambridgeshire will see snowfall, the prime areas for snow today are NW Cambs, Northants, Norfolk and Lincolnshire

[Tom D]

Hi all - if any one is giving up hope of snow, there's no need. It might be rain now, but overnight as the band sweeps east the back edge is likely to give at least a dusting for most of this region I would have thought.

Currently here in Leicester we've got heavy snow, settling on all surfaces.