Model Chat And Moods

[Thundery wintry showers]

I certainly sympathise with your view, the problem is getting the balance right moderation wise- there are a lot of posts in the Model Output Discussion thread that would be better placed in the Moods thread but there's a fine line involving keeping the MOD on topic vs. being seen to be moving too many people's posts.

[Lynxus]

I will be saving this image on my hard drive for a long time. the GEM T+240

I know its in lalal land but for snow and cold lovers its a dream come true. if that came off i would be speechless!!! i will look on this image in the height of summer and remember what a fantastic winter 09/10 was.

OK , I said "BANK!" to a chart the other day.

I now would like to sell the chart i BANKED the other day and would now like this one.

Tbh, while i love the snow and cold. Really cant see must happening from this.

Its looking increasingly like a dry cold spell, So not much snow for inland or western areas.

Also I dont think its gonna get "that" cold. So when the atlantic breaks in, Its just gonna be rain for 60% of the UK.

While i do hope to see a proper return of winter. And if that chart really did come off ( or even close ) that would be great.

With regards to TWS's post.

yes, This country is going to pot. Im fed up of being told that having fun or wanting to see some snow is childish.

for example:

At work, when it snowed i was quite excited. People took the p*** ( but i couldnt care less ) . However as soon as it settled and there was some snow. It was funny to watch everyone suddenly turn to a child.

Whats the point in living if all you do is , Work, Work, Work. Only want dry mild weather and nothing exciting to happen in your life.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Lynxus

[SP1986]

I'm pleased by the questioning of the ramping going on.

If I was a new poster who was interested in the weather (and not biased towards a particular weather type) I would want to know the following things from the Model Output Thread

- What the overall model pattern is suggesting

- What the potential is for extreme events

- What the chances are for an alternative outcome.

All of this without the "OMG look at 240" or "WOW thats amazing were all going to be snowed in yaaay"

I'm not suggesting no one should ramp from time to time but it is refreshing every so often to have people who are interest in weather/model outputs and not interest in ramping.

[John London]

I'm pleased by the questioning of the ramping going on.

If I was a new poster who was interested in the weather (and not biased towards a particular weather type) I would want to know the following things from the Model Output Thread

- What the overall model pattern is suggesting

- What the potential is for extreme events

- What the chances are for an alternative outcome.

All of this without the "OMG look at 240" or "WOW thats amazing were all going to be snowed in yaaay"

I'm not suggesting no one should ramp from time to time but it is refreshing every so often to have people who are interest in weather/model outputs and not interest in ramping.

Excellent post Stephen. It won't make a jot of difference, but still an excellent post. In fact I'd go as far as to say it's nailed on it won't make a jot of difference, I might even lay money on it not making a jot of difference.

Edited February 7, 2010 by John London

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's also good to have some inputs from weather enthusiasts who are interested in more than just one or two weather types. For instance while I am a snow nut like most people on here, I also enjoy sunny anticyclonic spells (I remember being very disappointed around 20 February 2008 when that particular anticyclonic spell ended) and those showery polar maritime regimes from the Atlantic, to quote the two most obvious examples. Even certain dry cloudy days have a fair amount going on, when there are frequent changes of cloud type and a reddish hue towards the horizon for example.

Philip Eden's first involvement with Net-weather was an interview where he made the insightful point that being fixed on one type of weather and closed to other types can result in the weather seeming uninteresting for a large majority of the time. Of course, it is unreasonable to tell people to appreciate all types of weather, just as it is unreasonable to tell them to enjoy all sports- different people see more beauty in some things than in others. But there's a difference between that and becoming fixed on one thing, and sometimes the over-fixation on snow can indeed hinder the quality of discussions, especially with the ramping at promising-looking snow setups and then the despair if they fail to come to fruition.

[La Bise]

Good post TWS. I get mildy annoyed when I read doom-ladden comments about a coming spell and upon further inspection, realise they are so because we do not get buried under a ton of snow, that cold per se is worthless. When I see a comment that a cold high is "boring", I do wonder if there is a life for those people beyond lamp post watching and getting mental in front of screen. A crisp winter morning, with the sun shining on you, reflecting on the frozen trees, the air fresh and bracing is many things but boring...? There is too much anticipation of extreme events, a rarity in the UK and a lack of appreciation of the aspects of weather that makes life here enjoyable.

[Evening thunder]

Very much agree with the above two posts, Even though I would like snow like many others on here, I would not go and say things like 'oh there's no snow then so a cold spell is all a waste of time and is pointless etc etc' as I do find many other types of weather interesting, and I do find it a bit annoying when there's so many negative posts like this. In fact clear frosty winter anticyclones are one of my favourite types in winter especially as I'm in quite a good area for low mins for this region. I can even find mild zonality interesting ways and although I may be disappointed if cold charts change to milder ones, after a day or so I then switch to watching interesting things in this like heavy rain from Atlantic fronts (living very near a river and another stream that can both rise and fall quite quickly and watching rainfalls effect on it adds interest here), and also strong winds, showery polar maritime westerly's etc.

So overall I would be happy with a cold, frosty and sunny spell of weather as well as a snowy one, although I wouldn't bet against some more widespread snow appearing at some point anyway. If skies remain clear in the night this week then I can see me getting comfortably below -5°C (for the 11th time this winter)

Edited February 7, 2010 by StormMad26

[John London]

I've got a torn hamstring which is now bandaged with an ice pack on it. I'm fed up and I would like to know where this "Beast From The East" is. Edit to say: Also drinking copious amounts of alcohol purely for medicinal reasons

[nick sussex]

I think it's also good to have some inputs from weather enthusiasts who are interested in more than just one or two weather types. For instance while I am a snow nut like most people on here, I also enjoy sunny anticyclonic spells (I remember being very disappointed around 20 February 2008 when that particular anticyclonic spell ended) and those showery polar maritime regimes from the Atlantic, to quote the two most obvious examples. Even certain dry cloudy days have a fair amount going on, when there are frequent changes of cloud type and a reddish hue towards the horizon for example.

Philip Eden's first involvement with Net-weather was an interview where he made the insightful point that being fixed on one type of weather and closed to other types can result in the weather seeming uninteresting for a large majority of the time. Of course, it is unreasonable to tell people to appreciate all types of weather, just as it is unreasonable to tell them to enjoy all sports- different people see more beauty in some things than in others. But there's a difference between that and becoming fixed on one thing, and sometimes the over-fixation on snow can indeed hinder the quality of discussions, especially with the ramping at promising-looking snow setups and then the despair if they fail to come to fruition.

Perhaps its down to living in a temperate climate that perhaps draws people to the extremes. I've often said that eventually lets say there was winter after winter of cold and snow would this forum be as busy? Then would the 5cm snowfall be derided as not upto much, even this winter there have been times when peoples expectations became too high, I think it's a case of the more you have the more you want, and then it has to be bigger and better than the last time.

I think people have to view the model discussion in the context that the majority of people in here during the winter like the cold and snow, they're on here because they're looking for that in the models, just as perhaps people in the summer are looking for those hot spells and Spanish plumes, perhaps with thunderstorms.

Some people are more objective than others, some show their emotions, toys out of prams happens occasionally but that is unavoidable, it might seem strange to some people viewing the thread, how can people get so happy, distraught, hysterical etc over cold and snow. But thats what people do, thats why they're not robots! And thats why this forum can be at times frustrating but equally entertaining and also people can learn a bit more about the models and the weather in general.

I like the fact that there are other people out there just like me who love the snow, I don't care if other people think it's childish or sad or whatever,I still even now get excited if its going to snow, still look at in awe and wonderment and thank my lucky stars that I'm able to enjoy the beauty of it. And even if it doesn't snow here in the valley theres always the Pyrenees to look at so I feel lucky either way.

[John London]

I think the bottom line is we live in the UK and we don't get extreme weather, but we do get changeable weather which keeps it interesting. I like a nice storm, I love a bit of sunshine, I'm also partial to some strong winds and a bit of snow. All in moderation. What I find disturbing are the people on here who would only be happy if there was some kind of weather that would cause severe disruption to peoples lives. That is just sad.

[nick sussex]

I think the bottom line is we live in the UK and we don't get extreme weather, but we do get changeable weather which keeps it interesting. I like a nice storm, I love a bit of sunshine, I'm also partial to some strong winds and a bit of snow. All in moderation. What I find disturbing are the people on here who would only be happy if there was some kind of weather that would cause severe disruption to peoples lives. That is just sad.

Well i think most people on here given recent mild winters would just be happy to see a few cms, there are of course a few that won't be happy unless the Thames freezes over!

I think it's when expectations run above what can be expected in the UK that becomes a problem, and this winter some people have forgotten that its the UK not Canada.

A few cms of snow and some lovely clear sunny days to get out and enjoy it is perfect for me, unfortunately in the UK it doesn't take much to cause drama, I don't think its really the fault of the government or councils, its not cost effective to spend huge amounts on tackling snow when by and large its been very rare over many recent winters.

[John London]

Well i think most people on here given recent mild winters would just be happy to see a few cms, there are of course a few that won't be happy unless the Thames freezes over!

I think it's when expectations run above what can be expected in the UK that becomes a problem, and this winter some people have forgotten that its the UK not Canada.

A few cms of snow and some lovely clear sunny days to get out and enjoy it is perfect for me, unfortunately in the UK it doesn't take much to cause drama, I don't think its really the fault of the government or councils, its not cost effective to spend huge amounts on tackling snow when by and large its been very rare over many recent winters.

I agree. I also have to say because I'm a big mouth that where I live this winter has been pretty ordinary. Nothing special has happened here. It got a bit cold for a few days. We had a bit of snow. So what. Get used to it, we live where we live, this country is great, we have no extreme weather and we have never had a revolution, I have no idea if the two are linked but I'm pi''sed

[smarty81]

Yes but this is a forum that bases it facts on good science, and prediction, that is surely the essence of weather forecasting? However there does seem to be an attitude of rather looking at the facts and reporting in bias of a snow event based solely on what the reporter wishes.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the bottom line is we live in the UK and we don't get extreme weather, but we do get changeable weather which keeps it interesting. I like a nice storm, I love a bit of sunshine, I'm also partial to some strong winds and a bit of snow. All in moderation. What I find disturbing are the people on here who would only be happy if there was some kind of weather that would cause severe disruption to peoples lives. That is just sad.

My response to that is dependent on what you mean. If the argument is that it's sad/disturbing to wish for some kind of weather because it causes severe disruption to people's lives, then I agree. But if the argument runs:

i) Those who are only happy if there is a kind of weather that causes severe disruption to people's lives are sad/disturbing.

ii) Snow causes severe disruption to people's lives.

iii) Therefore, people who are only happy if it's snowy are sad/disturbing (but those who are only happy if it's mild cloudy drizzly weather are not sad/disturbing because that weather type doesn't cause severe disruption to people's lives.)

...then I'm afraid I have to strongly disagree.

[fear sneachta]

I think the bottom line is we live in the UK and we don't get extreme weather, but we do get changeable weather which keeps it interesting. I like a nice storm, I love a bit of sunshine, I'm also partial to some strong winds and a bit of snow. All in moderation. What I find disturbing are the people on here who would only be happy if there was some kind of weather that would cause severe disruption to peoples lives. That is just sad.

The reality is, nobody can change the weather and change what's coming. So, if people like storms/snowmageddons or anything else that's 'disruptive', that's their prerogative.

Perhaps its down to living in a temperate climate that perhaps draws people to the extremes. I've often said that eventually lets say there was winter after winter of cold and snow would this forum be as busy? Then would the 5cm snowfall be derided as not upto much, even this winter there have been times when peoples expectations became too high, I think it's a case of the more you have the more you want, and then it has to be bigger and better than the last time.

I think people have to view the model discussion in the context that the majority of people in here during the winter like the cold and snow, they're on here because they're looking for that in the models, just as perhaps people in the summer are looking for those hot spells and Spanish plumes, perhaps with thunderstorms.

Some people are more objective than others, some show their emotions, toys out of prams happens occasionally but that is unavoidable, it might seem strange to some people viewing the thread, how can people get so happy, distraught, hysterical etc over cold and snow. But thats what people do, thats why they're not robots! And thats why this forum can be at times frustrating but equally entertaining and also people can learn a bit more about the models and the weather in general.

I like the fact that there are other people out there just like me who love the snow, I don't care if other people think it's childish or sad or whatever,I still even now get excited if its going to snow, still look at in awe and wonderment and thank my lucky stars that I'm able to enjoy the beauty of it. And even if it doesn't snow here in the valley theres always the Pyrenees to look at so I feel lucky either way.

That's a nice post.

The Pyrenees are beautiful in the snow. I've skied there twice before. I think there's an innate beauty in snow and snowflakes look amazing up close.

I'll be skiing in the Tatra Mountains next week, so I hope I don't miss the snow in Ireland next week, if there is any. Hope it awaits my return home!

Edited February 7, 2010 by fear sneachta

[Bobby]

Why can't people understand that different people have different preferences? Some are happy with dry frosty anticylonic spells and aren't bothered by snow, others aren't interested in the former and want megablizzards. Neither is wrong, it's preference. It doesn't harm anybody if someone loves snow.

Also I can't understand the argument sometime heard that people shouldn't wish for snow because it causes disruption, economic damage etc. All types of weather cause disruption to people's lives. Cold frosty anticyclonic weather freezes pipes, causes people to fall into frozen ponds, causes hypothermia. Rain causes floods. Gales blow things over. Sunny weather causes hayfever in summer, causes sunburn, heatwaves kill the elderly, thunderstorms kill people with lightning strikes, dull anticylonic weather pumps up pollution and causes asthma attacks etc etc.

Should we never wish for any type of weather then?

[La Bise]

Well said Barb, problems arising when the snow falls are rather more an indication of society's failure to help the vulnerable rather than any real issues with the weather per se (even a big snow event in the UK is nowhere near as destructive as a snowstorm in a colder country)

[galba]

Should we never wish for any type of weather then?

Of course we should. I most enjoy changeable weather - a few days of wet and windy followed by a few days of calm and sunny...whatever the season. Too much of any single type quickly becomes boring <_<

Edited February 7, 2010 by galba

[peterf]

I agree. I also have to say because I'm a big mouth that where I live this winter has been pretty ordinary. Nothing special has happened here. It got a bit cold for a few days. We had a bit of snow. So what. Get used to it, we live where we live, this country is great, we have no extreme weather and we have never had a revolution, I have no idea if the two are linked but I'm pi''sed

that could be just the welsh in yaself.you lot came upto Newcastle and wrecked our historic builds.

just aswell we stood back and watched your brain dead followers do their their stuff on the night.

you all forget ya day in court is up here lol.

cctv has the lot of yas, and a warm unpoliced welcome will be awaiting yas.

HAPPY DAYS AND PAYBACK <_<

[Thundery wintry showers]

Why can't people understand that different people have different preferences? Some are happy with dry frosty anticylonic spells and aren't bothered by snow, others aren't interested in the former and want megablizzards. Neither is wrong, it's preference. It doesn't harm anybody if someone loves snow.

Also I can't understand the argument sometime heard that people shouldn't wish for snow because it causes disruption, economic damage etc. All types of weather cause disruption to people's lives. Cold frosty anticyclonic weather freezes pipes, causes people to fall into frozen ponds, causes hypothermia. Rain causes floods. Gales blow things over. Sunny weather causes hayfever in summer, causes sunburn, heatwaves kill the elderly, thunderstorms kill people with lightning strikes, dull anticylonic weather pumps up pollution and causes asthma attacks etc etc.

Should we never wish for any type of weather then?

I agree with the sentiments completely.

The reason why the media, business etc. doesn't follow the 2nd paragraph is that some weather types cause more disruption and economic damage than others, and this can easily be assessed, for example, by raw number crunching of the relative impacts on the economy and excess mortality. So their argument will be that we should all wish for weather types that cause low overall economic damage and excess mortality, and vice versa. That stance contains numerous flaws a mile wide, but I can see how they arrive at it- it's a logical by-product of looking at the weather purely in raw economic/health terms and not considering other factors.

Society does fail to help the vulnerable- as a nation we simply aren't prepared for cold snowy weather- but it is so easy as a society to blame anything but ourselves, so the weather is an easy target for blame.

What I'd like to see is tolerance for different preferences across the board and all year around- so people should be allowed to wish for snow, or mild, or whatever, without being shot down for it (and yes, that does include me enjoying sunshine and snow showers in the middle of April!).

[NorthantsSnow]

Not the best model runs this morning if you're after a notable snow event like myself. The easterly is looking fairly cold but not especially snowy. Synoptically it is not as good looking as the December easterly, and certainly not a patch on February 2009.

Frustrating as it will be cold enough at the surface most of the time for snow to fall and accumulate, but the flow is just not potent enough to drag in much moisture.

Edited February 8, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Thundery wintry showers]

Posted this in the general chat area but thought it may be good in here as well.

I can see plenty of snow out in F1 at the moment:

[Southender]

Posted this in the general chat area but thought it may be good in here as well.

I can see plenty of snow out in F1 at the moment:

TWS that is superb mate!!

[stewfox]

my goodness are we are are we not going to have the cold spell with snow we are hereing in the media and tabloids . why are the models changing so much. very conflicting information regardind the weather for this week. must say very entertaining watching the models change so much. we have had a great winter so far so i suppose we can not grumble if the rest of feb is mild.

I don't post on here much but I do like reading people thoughts about model output.

We have had in the last 25 posts about one that relates to model output

The rest are name calling, told you so, moaning about no max -5c in mid Feb for the SE and a raft of will snow type comments

No comment about anything within T144.

Lets hope the mods take all the comments of.

[Neilsouth]

Are we expecting a constant stream of showers or the stop 40mins and then start affair ?