Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[andymusic]

Looking on radar right now - seems there's loads of showers about - GFS showed this on it's forecast - meto have a warning out for showers to continue into the night north and mid wales - that's where GFS and meto disagree - we'll see - and if the GFS is incorrect - perhaps tomorrows front - which seems invisible to me will sneak into wales - may be it'll be a stealth front

hi just wondering any snow comin for carms/pembs border?

Sam

you might get some snow showers currently over ireland into you later!

[joo]

And on cue, the (almost) snow is starting.

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like the showery activity is starting to increase slightly, still no big showers around though.

Dan Corbett said snow for S Wales and SW England later on tonight by 5AM said "you could see a few cm"

Edited February 19, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[Snowmadsam]

Looking on radar right now - seems there's loads of showers about - GFS showed this on it's forecast - meto have a warning out for showers to continue into the night north and mid wales - that's where GFS and meto disagree - we'll see - and if the GFS is incorrect - perhaps tomorrows front - which seems invisible to me will sneak into wales - may be it'll be a stealth front

you might get some snow showers currently over ireland into you later!

You mean the ones just coming into western Ireland?

[MP-R]

And on cue, the (almost) snow is starting.

What are people's thermometres reading at the moment? Sounds like some good shower activity across the Estuary but everything is either petering out here because it's evaporating before reaching ground or falling as hail.

[andymusic]

You mean the ones just coming into western Ireland?

nope the ones in eastern ireland

What are people's thermometres reading at the moment? Sounds like some good shower activity across the Estuary but everything is either petering out here because it's evaporating before reaching ground or falling as hail.

we're having some lovely snow showers here - but we do have altitude

[Marcus_surfer]

nope the ones in eastern ireland

we're having some lovely snow showers here - but we do have altitude

Do you think they will continue to make progress over to Wales?

Edited February 19, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[andymusic]

sun is now going down so temps will fall pretty quickly - any precip will probably be snow now

Do you they will continue to make progress over to Wales?

looks like it - irish sea may help them

[J10]

Looks like the showery activity is starting to increase slightly, still no big showers around though.

Dan Corbett said snow for S Wales and SW England later on tonight by 5AM said "you could see a few cm"

The NAE model look promising and with the front pushing through in the middle of the night, this should really help with marginality.

Also looking good for Sunday.

As for today, wind direction too much of NW compared to a NNW which is better for us.

[Cymro]

omg its freezing outside literally freezing all water from snow melt has frozen damn thats early and my bloody thermometer has packed in

[andymusic]

Looks like the showery activity is starting to increase slightly, still no big showers around though.

Dan Corbett said snow for S Wales and SW England later on tonight by 5AM said "you could see a few cm"

Love Dan "the man" Corbett - well if he's said something about a few cms of snow for south wales - I'll bend to his brilliance then

[Snowmadsam]

no one told me Dan was on! fantastic forecaster he has experiance of unpredictable weather as he worked in the Hurricane centre! He knows how quickly things can change! I'll watch him on the NEWS 24 weather at 17:55

[Cymro]

He said could give a covering no mention of a few centimeters for South wales, just a covering.

[Marcus_surfer]

no one told me Dan was on! fantastic forecaster he has experiance of unpredictable weather as he worked in the Hurricane centre! He knows how quickly things can change! I'll watch him on the NEWS 24 weather at 17:55

Yes he has changed the maps since 3pm, shows rain, sleet and snow clipping S Wales whilst earlier forecasts showed the snow further south

Edited February 19, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[andymusic]

The NAE model look promising and with the front pushing through in the middle of the night, this should really help with marginality.

Also looking good for Sunday.

As for today, wind direction too much of NW compared to a NNW which is better for us.

how is it then Jackone that the GFS is soooooooooo wrong for over night tonight - it's totally missed this frontal feature - it did have it on it's 18z model i think about two nights ago - then dismissed it - but on the 12z today - it's totally missed it out - this is very strange - as the GFS is normally excellent within 24 hours of precip falling!

[Marcus_surfer]

He said could give a covering no mention of a few centimeters for South wales, just a covering.

he said a few centimeters on the 16.55 report

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Brecon Beacons forecast: http://www.metoffice...t_pressure.html

So indicates the precipitation being further north than previously shown.

[benb]

Looks quite interesting for S.Wales late tonight and tomorrow. However, as has been mentioned, still inconsistency in the models at a very short range...

Not much doing on the GFS. However, on the 6am NAE...

and then by midday...

Another case of wait and see, but then that's half the fun, isn't it!?

Currently 3.0c. and falling.

[DeepSnow]

clouds seem to be increasing from the west, temp now 2.5C and slowly falling. So could many areas of south wales have a covering of snow by the morning? if so how much?

[andymusic]

clouds seem to be increasing from the west, temp now 2.5C and slowly falling. So could many areas of south wales have a covering of snow by the morning? if so how much?

The NAE - if it's correct - is showing it won't get to eastern wales until later in the morning - only just getting into wales by 6am - I'm going to check the 6pm news for the 6.30pm update of the forecast - should be very interesting!

[Cymro]

Apologies seen his later forecast yes looked promising had snow over my area from about 4 am till dinner time that be it light will sure give a decent accumilation let's just wait and see

Wales:

Blaenau Gwent

Bridgend

Caerphilly

Cardiff

Carmarthenshire

Ceredigion

Merthyr Tydfil

Monmouthshire

Neath Port Talbot

Newport

Pembrokeshire

Rhondda Cynon Taff

Swansea

Torfaen

Vale of Glamorgan

Widespread Icy Roads 2020 Fri 19 1000 Sat 20

Widespread ice is likely to form on untreated surfaces across much of southern and western Wales this evening and overnight, as occasional wintry showers continue. These may become more frequent by the morning giving a few centimetres of snow locally, especially over higher ground.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Wales for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1814 Fri 19 Feb

[J10]

how is it then Jackone that the GFS is soooooooooo wrong for over night tonight - it's totally missed this frontal feature - it did have it on it's 18z model i think about two nights ago - then dismissed it - but on the 12z today - it's totally missed it out - this is very strange - as the GFS is normally excellent within 24 hours of precip falling!

Perhaps the GFS is right and NAE wrong (Hope not though). Very much a case of seeing the 18Hz and then nowcasting.

Looking at the GFS quite a few chacne of snow over the next couple of days, hopefully 1 or 2 may deliver.

[Snowmadsam]

The NAE - if it's correct - is showing it won't get to eastern wales until later in the morning - only just getting into wales by 6am - I'm going to check the 6pm news for the 6.30pm update of the forecast - should be very interesting!

I fainted on the floor when I saw that chart on the Beeb forecast at 6:30pm it is my friends birthdya tomrrow so lets hope the weather can give her a present she won't forget!

[andymusic]

Well Dan "The Man" Corbett has spoken - frequent steady snow showers for tomorrow morning and frontal snow for sunday morning - probably the best times to get it apart from over night - I believe him - and if the GFS is right and it doesn't happen - I think a strongly worded e-mail will be required - BUT - I don't think that will be necessary - Dan The Man Corbett is one of the best guys on the meto's team - if he says it's gonna snow - it flippin well will!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 19, 2010 by andymusic

[joo]

What is "light patchy steady snow"?

I read "patchy" and think on and off.

I read "steady" and think constant.

Confused of Caerphilly