North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Andy_]

As things stand at the minute, i think tomorrow will pan out like this;

0:00-6:00 approx. - as the band hits our region it will initially be of moderate-heavy snow, inland high ground and low ground, coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/prectypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/hgt500-1000.png - 528 line hangs on allowing low level snow.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/h850t850eu.png - upper air sufficient for allowing low level snow.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/ukpaneltemp.png - dew points sufficient for allowing low level snow.

6:01-9:00 approx. - continues as snow over inland high ground, inland low ground wet snow, coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/24/prectypeuktopo.png

9:01-12:00 approx. - inland high ground snow, inland low ground and coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/30/hgt500-1000.png - 528 line retreates to scotland, snow limited to high land.

12:01-15:00 approx - inland high ground snow, inland low ground and coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/33/h850t850eu.png - upper air becomes marginal for high land.

15:01 onwards - inland high ground snow/sleet - high hills should stay as snow, inland low ground and coastal areas cold rain.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/39/ukprec.png - by this time precipition diminishing so areas which have had snow should maintain there snow cover well.

So in summary,

Initially all areas snow, later changing to sleet at coastal areas, followed by sleet in low inland areas, followed by cold rain for coastal and low inland areas, high ground should do well to maintain snow throughout, although some areas may be at risk as it becomes more marginal.

[Tucco]

Definitely looking good for us for snow, but not for travelling!

Tomorrow morning could be very interesting if only A roads are gritted, it'll be hard enough just reaching the A roads.

I will be parking about a mile from home tonight just so I don't have to get up a bank tomorrow.

They've stopped gritting our bank and even the slightest covering makes it difficult to get up so it looks very likely the estate will be cut off again tomorrow. I will enjoy walking up passed everyone struggling.

Hope low lying parts get some action too.

Updated Meto model much better for this area. The wind will be factor causing drifting at higher levels.

Mark

As things stand at the minute, i think tomorrow will pan out like this;

0:00-6:00 approx. - as the band hits our region it will initially be of moderate-heavy snow, inland high ground and low ground, coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/prectypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/hgt500-1000.png - 528 line hangs on allowing low level snow.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/h850t850eu.png - upper air sufficient for allowing low level snow.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/18/ukpaneltemp.png - dew points sufficient for allowing low level snow.

6:01-9:00 approx. - continues as snow over inland high ground, inland low ground wet snow, coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/24/prectypeuktopo.png

9:01-12:00 approx. - inland high ground snow, inland low ground and coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/30/hgt500-1000.png - 528 line retreates to scotland, snow limited to high land.

12:01-15:00 approx - inland high ground snow, inland low ground and coastal areas sleet.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/33/h850t850eu.png - upper air becomes marginal for high land.

15:01 onwards - inland high ground snow/sleet - high hills should stay as snow, inland low ground and coastal areas cold rain.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100223/06/39/ukprec.png - by this time precipition diminishing so areas which have had snow should maintain there snow cover well.

So in summary,

Initially all areas snow, later changing to sleet at coastal areas, followed by sleet in low inland areas, followed by cold rain for coastal and low inland areas, high ground should do well to maintain snow throughout, although some areas may be at risk as it becomes more marginal.

Meto less keen to push milder air further North than GFS. Meto Invent keeps upland areas below freezing all Wed.

Mark

[Andy_]

Meto less keen to push milder air further North than GFS. Meto Invent keeps upland areas below freezing all Wed.

Mark

aye i actually agree with that, even though upper air may be marginal upland areas could hang onto the residual cold for long enough through the initial band, and with the introduction of evaporative cooling temperatures should stay low enough to stay below freezing, however the strong february sun could bump temperatures up a touch in some areas if it can poke through.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I doubt that the sun will poke through this frontal system! The main issue as I see it is marginality and I agree with Andy's assessment of probable snow inland but sleety near the coast. From experience of living in Cleadon, with a moderate or strong onshore wind you really need upper air approaching -10C to deliver falling and lying snow along the coast.

The 4th February 2001 comes into consideration- the "very nearly easterly" brought 850hPa values of -6 to -8C and inland areas had a large dumping of snow but at Cleadon sleet and wet snow fell with the temperature oscillating between 1 and 2C, and none of it settled.

In the meantime it looks pretty "driech" for us down in the south- dull, wet, fairly cold, and hardly a glimmer of sunshine. Winter is relaxing its grip down here and being replaced by Spr... er, I mean Autumn!

[peterf]

the wind is picking up here and it's raw out there.

[seabreeze86]

It really is cold today just walked the dog along the beach and when theres a gust of wind feels like it goes stright threw you, looks like it will be mainly sleet for me on the coast with the wind coming off the sea will just raise the tempertures enough to be the wrong side of marginal. Or well cant moan seen more snow this year than anyover i can remember at sea level.

[peterf]

looking at the radar,and with temps now falling rapidly.i expect most of the schools in the Consett area will be closed tomorrow.

none of them are on A roads, and most teachers live well outside the area.

[Snowstorm1]

Whats everyones thoughts on this event? Me in the south of the reigion but MOST importantly 10MILES from the coast may get a fair bit of snow tonight andd toommorrow but is there a chance of avoiding the rain i wonder :winky:

[tynevalleywinter]

As well as tonight Thursday night into Friday looks like a good chance of a dumping !

[snowmackem]

Warning back up now. Invent model just updated appears precip hangs around longer on Wednesday. Still cold enough for snow higher up

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

regions:60% Northern Ireland

60% Yorkshire & Humber

60% North East England

Heavy Snow 0010 Wed 24 1800 Wed 24

There is a high risk of severe weather affecting Northern Ireland and parts of northern England. There is the potential for heavy snow to give significant accumulations, especially over high ground. There is likely to be significant disruption to travel networks, particularly over higher level routes.

Snow will gradually turn back to rain from the south later on Wednesday.

Issued at: 1232 Tue 23 Feb

Mark

Hi Mark,

The warning may well be back up, but the point is, it still doesn't include Tyne And Wear strangely.I'm sure we will get a dumping though, down south has had it today (W. Mids etc) during daylight hours, with warmer temps to start with as well, we are getting it in darkness and starting at a lower base. Road closures anyone ??

Karl

[Alex95]

10-15cm high ground and 1-2cm low ground according to Look North. I'm afraid I can't disagree with that summary, though some low ground in Northumberland should get at least 5cm I'd have thought.

[Snowstorm1]

10-15cm high ground and 1-2cm low ground according to Look North. I'm afraid I can't disagree with that summary, though some low ground in Northumberland should get at least 5cm I'd have thought.

Several hours of snow 1-2cm? doesnt sound right at all im expecting 2-5cm when i wake up and go to school at 8:30 tommorrow. and im hoping it will push away before it turns to rain. :excl:

[Alex95]

Several hours of snow 1-2cm? doesnt sound right at all im expecting 2-5cm when i wake up and go to school at 8:30 tommorrow. and im hoping it will push away before it turns to rain.

No guarantee about several hours of snow. Possibility of a sleety event to start off with, turning to heavy snow during the early hours when the heavier precipitation drags down colder temperatures, then turning back to sleet or rain a couple of hours later (3am - 6am). That would lead to a slushy covering of 0-3cm which is gone by about 7am soon after the snow stops.

On the other hand there could be several hours of snow with 2-3 inches at low levels (5-7cm) but I wouldn't bet on it just yet.

Also that forecast showed rain near the east coast, with Tyne and Wear on the edge of the snow and rain boundary, which is furthest inland the further south you go. That forecast showed an almost all rain event for Teesside you want it to be wrong.

Edited February 23, 2010 by alza

[Freezing-Point]

Several hours of snow 1-2cm? doesnt sound right at all im expecting 2-5cm when i wake up and go to school at 8:30 tommorrow. and im hoping it will push away before it turns to rain.

Several hours of snow with temperatures around 0.5 - 1.0c. Likely within 10 miles of the coast due the the N.Sea warming. This is what I expect

Edited February 23, 2010 by Freezing-Point

[Snowstorm1]

No guarantee about several hours of snow. Possibility of a sleety event to start off with, turning to heavy snow during the early hours when the heavier precipitation drags down colder temperatures, then turning back to sleet or rain a couple of hours later (3am - 6am). That would lead to a slushy covering of 0-3cm which is gone by about 7am soon after the snow stops.

On the other hand there could be several hours of snow with 2-3 inches at low levels (5-7cm) but I wouldn't bet on it just yet.

Also that forecast showed rain near the east coast, with Tyne and Wear on the edge of the snow and rain boundary, which is furthest inland the further south you go. That forecast showed an almost all rain event for Teesside you want it to be wrong.

if it isnt wrong there will be a fair amount of egg on my face. my dad said when he goes to work at 6 wah will it be like i said a winter wonderland i hope im right.... What do you think mate for me?

[Alex95]

if it isnt wrong there will be a fair amount of egg on my face. my dad said when he goes to work at 6 wah will it be like i said a winter wonderland i hope im right.... What do you think mate for me?

Not sure, slushy wonderland? A thick covering of wet snow is possible, as are lots of very large puddles, it'll all be down to nowcasting. The average of temp. and dewpoint here is 0.2°C and falling. I'd like the average to be below -2°C before the precipitation arrives as it will probably rise when it starts raining / snowing, but I'd settle for an average of -1°C as long as it doesn't rise rapidly once the snow hits.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Here's the latest ppn type charts from the high res NMM model from Netweather Extra...

00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

Looks good to me if they are close to the mark, falling as snow most of the night for all but those within a few miles of the coast.

I would imagine after the snow, we'll get drizzle for a while which could impact on the depths and won't be very pleasant, but hopefully we'll all have had a decent dumping by then.

I think there's going to be a lot of people stuck on this estate in the morning, our bank isn't gritted and hardly anyone has parked up the top where I am. I'm looking forward to walking up watching everyone struggle in their cars, they should take notice of the forecasts and warnings!

[Snowstorm1]

Not sure, slushy wonderland? A thick covering of wet snow is possible, as are lots of very large puddles, it'll all be down to nowcasting. The average of temp. and dewpoint here is 0.2°C and falling. I'd like the average to be below -2°C before the precipitation arrives as it will probably rise when it starts raining / snowing, but I'd settle for an average of -1°C as long as it doesn't rise rapidly once the snow hits.

Im keeping all my hopes up and ill be waking up early at 5am tommorrow for it

[Alex95]

Here's the latest ppn type charts from the high res NMM model from Netweather Extra...

00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

Looks good to me if they are close the mark, falling as snow most of the night for all but those within a few miles of the coast.

I would imagine after the snow, we'll get drizzle for a while which could impact on the depths and won't be very pleasant, but hopefully we'll all have had a decent dumping by then.

I think there's going to be a lot of people stuck on this estate in the morning, our bank isn't gritted and hardly anyone has parked up the top where I am. I'm looking forward to walking up watching everyone struggle in their cars, they should take notice of the forecasts and warnings!

Looks like turning to rain by the time day breaks here I'm afraid Still, I think places like Consett, Stanley etc needn't worry much, but at low levels its touch and go. In a way I wish I was in Cumbria, far less marginal there and heavy precipitation heading that way on the radar.

SS1: those charts are what I had in mind, a few hours of snow before turning to rain between 03:00 and 06:00. Rain in Teesside by 04:00 and Tyneside by 06:00?

[Snowstorm1]

Looks like turning to rain by the time day breaks here I'm afraid Still, I think places like Consett, Stanley etc needn't worry much, but at low levels its touch and go. In a way I wish I was in Cumbria, far less marginal there and heavy precipitation heading that way on the radar.

SS1: those charts are what I had in mind, a few hours of snow before turning to rain between 03:00 and 06:00. Rain in Teesside by 04:00 and Tyneside by 06:00?

Oh no please please dont rain im hoping it will stay as snow then clear before turning to rain looks like ive been too positive :lol:

[Alex95]

Oh no please please dont rain im hoping it will stay as snow then clear before turning to rain looks like ive been too positive :lol:

I think the best you can hope for is an event like 4th Dec 2008, it looked like being a non event here with sleet, but that turned to snow during the morning as the precipitation got heavier and left 2 inches. That was meant to be a snow-rain event, but was only followed by drizzle during the early afternoon, so the snow stayed quite nice and fresh until night time. The next day it was horrible and icy.

[Snowstorm1]

I think the best you can hope for is an event like 4th Dec 2008, it looked like being a non event here with sleet, but that turned to snow during the morning as the precipitation got heavier and left 2 inches. That was meant to be a snow-rain event, but was only followed by drizzle during the early afternoon, so the snow stayed quite nice and fresh until night time. The next day it was horrible and icy.

I have hope and will have hope till i wake up but if its raining with puddles there maybe quite alot of egg on my face and i told kids at school not one of my best ideas although i said rain in the afternoon.

[Deep Snow please]

The will be a hell of a ot of egg on my fae if Tyneside don't get an inch of snow. My chances aren't looking good are they.

[Freezing-Point]

Looking at the latest developments of the PPN on the radar and reading some of the other regional threads from further south, the problem seems to be that the PPN is not heavy enough or sustained enough to give any decent snowfall. The only hope is that when the wind picks up off the sea it collects moisture which intensifies the band over our region. If this does not happen then we are in for a dissapointment. I am not holding high hopes for my region atm... 8 miles from the coast...200ft asl

[Deep Snow please]

So basically its like watching horse riding, nothing really happens and you've just got to hope this will be the one time it does.