Model Output Discussion

[Snowyowl9]

This is reminding me of the last spell we had a week or 10 days ago what`s showing up in the models now.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

High is that little bit further south this time,but maybe not as it seems similar.

Much colder upper air showing but France is getting all the exciting weather at the moment.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Looks like there is a frost shown for tonight.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1817.png

[Bristawl Si]

This is reminding me of the last spell we had a week or 10 days ago what`s showing up in the models now.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

High is that little bit further south this time,but maybe not as it seems similar.

Much colder upper air showing but France is getting all the exciting weather at the moment.

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Recm1201.gif

Looks like there is a frost shown for tonight.

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn1817.png

Not exactly "at the moment" is it in relation to a chart that's a number of days away?!

And if you're also referring to the weather from the weekend just gone, that many deaths is not that exciting either!

[MP-R]

Not exactly "at the moment" is it in relation to a chart that's a number of days away?!

And if you're also referring to the weather from the weekend just gone, that many deaths is not that exciting either!

I was thinking that too, especially the last point. Though I think he meant in the bigger picture. The same thing happened in February when the high was too far south and France got a good chill with snow. The models have albeit erratically edged towards a slightly colder and snowier option but again no certainty.

[bluearmy]

I'm afraid I would have to disagree with that statement because the GFS is already starting to

backtrack from the 06z output. On top of that the Euro models are almost identical at t72 so I

can not see them being wrong.

CC, over the past few months there has been much model disagreement at apparently low timescales. i dont recall too may occasions where any model was completely right and any model completely wrong when this has occurred. its not easy to see exactly where the shortwave passes through on ukmo as we dont see T84. GFS is denmark, GEM is easetern holland and UKMO looks to be just off the kent coast. ecm appears to be around holland on the icelandic output where we see T84. so the dutch point of entry is the general agreement currently. ecm still shows a warm sector passing over as the precip come in. looking good for extended precip in east anglia and kent. given the last time we saw this in feb, you'd have to favour kent on saturday morning to wake up to something notable.

[cooling climate]

CC, over the past few months there has been much model disagreement at apparently low timescales. i dont recall too may occasions where any model was completely right and any model completely wrong when this has occurred. its not easy to see exactly where the shortwave passes through on ukmo as we dont see T84. GFS is denmark, GEM is easetern holland and UKMO looks to be just off the kent coast. ecm appears to be around holland on the icelandic output where we see T84. so the dutch point of entry is the general agreement currently. ecm still shows a warm sector passing over as the precip come in. looking good for extended precip in east anglia and kent. given the last time we saw this in feb, you'd have to favour kent on saturday morning to wake up to something notable.

GFS model is much further east with the low and will undoubtedly come more into line with

the Euro models I think. The only thing that then concerns me is will the high stay far enough

north for a potent easterly for a couple of days.

Models having a wobble with regards to the blocking in FI unless some thing has radically

changed in the last 24 hours.

[nick sussex]

Still alot of uncertainty with this shortwave dropping south. I saw the GFS 06hrs run earlier and thought whats this model on! The 12hrs has backtracked somewhat but still takes the shortwave further east than the euros. Unfortunately any easterly looks quite short in timescale but as KW mentioned earlier could be quite potent for the east but more especially towards the far se.

Looks like turning much colder here in sw France, quite a shock after some lovely warm days since that storm, even the lizards were out today!

Further ahead it looks quite settled but the slack continental flow should bring some sunshine and frosty nights but really after this short easterly its really a northerly that people should be looking for if they want to see some wintry weather.

[Whether Idle]

The far SE looks in line to get some snow over the Fri-Sun period with a small possibility of something significant. Will need watching closely.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes the 06Z ensembles confirm my feelings that the UKMO/ECM are wrong. Hard to explain but instinctively I feel the GFS is right and would be amazed if tonights ECM/UKMO 12Zs continue with the trend. I fully expect the ECM/UKMO to trend towards the GFS with the Met O ammending their forecasts tomorrow morning.

Remember when the UKMO model was predicting cold E,lys with snow and the BBC/Met O forecasts went with this. At the time the GFS didn't agree with the UKMO and around 24hrs later the BBC/Met O changed their forecasts. Well exactly the same will happen again and would be surprised if snow is mentioned in tomorrows 6-15 day outlook.

OT but Dave your message box full?? Can't PM you

Regarding models it would seem that a fairly cold and brisk easterly for the south is likely. Even on Sunday Rob McElwee stated that it could be interesting when the easterly sets in. Tonight on SE News they have gone with the Euros.

BFTP

Edited March 2, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[keithlucky]

Everyone talking about the eastwind what about the north easterlies behind the lp according to bbc fax, still cold over the the baltic regions ,we seems to heading for a cold but dry weekend.

[Snowyowl9]

Not exactly "at the moment" is it in relation to a chart that's a number of days away?!

And if you're also referring to the weather from the weekend just gone, that many deaths is not that exciting either!

Around february 9th and 10th with the cold NE-ly,the SE geting snow showers, just shows how time flies,it felt like that was only about 10 days ago to me.

Edited March 2, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[bluearmy]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

excellent ens agreement on the shortwave passing thru de bilt. note the increase in wind speed friday as the shortwave approaches followed by a dip as the shortwave passes thru and a bigger increase as the easterly kicks in behind the trough.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A north-easterly or easterly can still be very cold and snowy at this time of year but it increasingly requires a "northerly" source- even the one going into France at the end of the week, which may or may not hit us, originates in high latitudes and heads south to our east and then across. Easterlies bringing continental air have an increasing bias towards dull dry outcomes as we head through March.

Perhaps the most ideal synoptic setup for snow in eastern England in March is similar to what we had in the first week of January this year- a northerly regime but often with an easterly component to the wind direction. This scenario was also what gave Tyne and Wear its big snowstorms in mid-March 1979.

I still think the setup for the weekend could go either way. In early January GFS had high pressure over the British Isles between 7 and 10 January while the UKMO/ECM had the high to the north allowing a sustained easterly or north-easterly flow taking the air down from the north around the high's periphery. In the end, the UKMO/ECM were right. But in the second week of February, a similar scenario arose- UKMO/ECM going for a potent NE'ly, GFS for a much briefer one with HP much further south, and on that occasion the GFS was right.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The high to far South again on the 18z . Talk about up and down at the minute

Edited March 2, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[Cloud 10]

The gfs 18z versus the new fax chart for the same time.

Which one to believe?

[cooling climate]

I would not mind if the GFS was consistent with its own output but there's no

consistency there what so ever and its getting to be a waste of time watching

these runs come out.

[Duane S.]

The high to far South again on the 18z . Talk about up and down at the minute

Hmmm, just when you think it's finally starting to move towards the Euros back it comes with another s(t)inker.

I still think it is wrong. The GFS and ECM sseem adament on a different shortwave interaction wih the high pressure. Maybe it will be a case of 'meeting in the middle' and it's certainly been a while since we've seen a stonking snowfest of a run from any model, that's for sure. One thing they do all agree on though, high pressure to be in control for a little while so not a bad thing.

[nick sussex]

Still no agreement on this shortwave with the GFS 18hrs run moving further away from the euros!

Looking at the latest NAE which has a higher resolution than the GFS operational that still wants to bring the shortwave south much further west at 48hrs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201003021800&VAR=pslv&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=

Compared to the GFS at 48hrs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.html

I can't imagine the ECM and UKMO are going to be this far wrong at these timeframes, even allowing for some margin for error the GFS looks to be all over the place with this shortwave.

[Geordiesnow]

I would not mind if the GFS was consistent with its own output but there's no

consistency there what so ever and its getting to be a waste of time watching

these runs come out.

Apart from one GFS 12Z run, yesterday, the model has been consistant in having the high too far south and the trigger shortwave too far East thus no brief easterly like the euros are showing. I have missed a few GFS runs however so correct me if i'm wrong.

ECM/UKMO has been consistant with what it is showing so that some encouragement. The outlook does look fairly settled though and it looks like we could be heading into a dry(ish) spell for the next 5-7 days.

[damianslaw]

General consensus from the models for a shortwave feature to move through from the north west on Friday, where it positions itself will determine how potent any easterly on its northern flank becomes. Kent and East Anglia could see some very cold upper air temps on Saturday, convection may allow some sharp snow showers to develop.

However, elsewhere its a predominantly dry outlook from the weekend, with heights likely to remain high just to our north west, plenty of frosty nights ahead and hopefully by next week some increasing spring warmth under clear sunny skies, today has shown even under cold uppers, if we have clear skies and sunshine temps can easily get into the low teens especially in the south, something that wouldn't happen in Dec or Jan. Sunshine in March makes a huge difference in terms of being able to see some mild temps, whereas cloudy skies will still give generally average temps days at best unless the source of air is a south westerly or westerly and indeed cloudy skies under a flow from north to south east as is occuring tomorrow will deliver downright cold days, especially in the first half colder than many a dec day, a cloudy easterly is not good news in March.

Edited March 2, 2010 by damianslaw

[cooling climate]

Apart from one GFS 12Z run, yesterday, the model has been consistant in having the high too far south and the trigger shortwave too far East thus no brief easterly like the euros are showing. I have missed a few GFS runs however so correct me if i'm wrong.

Generally speaking yes what you say is true. I was really referring to the four runs that

the GFS has come out with today which have had no consistency at all.

I know it is generally fool hardy to totally dismiss the GFS as we have found out this winter,

but this time regarding the low that travels down the north sea on Friday I definitely

would not go against the faxes or the Euro's.

[MR EXTREMES]

Generally speaking yes what you say is true. I was really referring to the four runs that

the GFS has come out with today which have had no consistency at all.

I know it is generally fool hardy to totally dismiss the GFS as we have found out this winter,

but this time regarding the low that travels down the north sea on Friday I definitely

would not go against the faxes or the Euro's.

i think you have every reason to throw the gfs runs in the bin and your spot on that they have been all over the place i expect the easterly to come off this time but how much an effect it will have is the million pound question.

will it could it snow i dont see why not with uppers like that so lets hope we get plenty of convection i could not really care if it dont settle just be nice to see snowfall in march just to carry on the last couple of years of trends.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sunshine in March makes a huge difference in terms of being able to see some mild temps, whereas cloudy skies will still give generally average temps days at best unless the source of air is a south westerly or westerly and indeed cloudy skies under a flow from north to south east as is occuring tomorrow will deliver downright cold days, especially in the first half colder than many a dec day, a cloudy easterly is not good news in March.

The cloudy scenario could easily arise if the high settles to the N or NW and pulls in either modified maritime air from around the top of the high or continental air from the SE. I think into next week, to maintain high sunshine amounts we either need the high to stick around almost on top of the British Isles, to drift to the east (looks unlikely) or to pull far away enough to the west to allow polar airmasses down from the north. Cloud cover shouldn't be an issue this weekend because our choices are either a HP sat on top of us or a cold ENE'ly of arctic origin bringing sunshine and snow showers, but now that we're getting into spring such easterlies do tend to mix out to cloudy affairs after a while unless reinforcements come down from the north.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Evening all , iv been workin all day followed by college and a football match and only just walked through the door 20mins ago and have just had a quick look through the models and the forum today and one thing has sank home this winter in particular . .

Which is apart from the good omega block in january with the northerlys/north-easterlies the models have not been consistant at all and to be honest im feeling dissapointed after such a promising start and what we have been so close to having , the gfs has picked up trends to begin woth and the way it picked up the spell in jan was very good , but every single time since the models have predicted an easterly its failed to materialise , oftern its the gfs to pick up on somethin then the others jump on bored , we all get excited and all looks good , then one morning we wake up to find the gfs wants to back away from the senario and have the high sat on us , we all hope its wrong and sure enough in time we get let down and sooner or later we realise we have once again been led up the garden path ,

we all no how the weather is out of our hands but we cant help having this strong hobbie i no i for one was born with it and strangely enough so was my brother , but it seems a reocuring cycle time an time again and now its got to the point we all wait for the downgrades.

Im sorry for moaning but it seems the very very hard to get an easterly this year and i cant understand why the models keep making the same errors when it comes to high pressure .

[Rob]

GFS going for settled for the next 16 days, can't see that happening! I'm sure that Atlantic will have to say something about this

[karyo]

Im sorry for moaning but it seems the very very hard to get an easterly this year and i cant understand why the models keep making the same errors when it comes to high pressure .

Does it matter when we've just had such a cold winter?

Karyo