June CET

[J10]

14.5

and also -10 pts to boot

[Stu_London]

CET for 1st June - 12.3C (-0.5C)

[Duncan McAlister]

Late entry for me please, 14.6C

[SteveB]

12.3c to the 1st, -0.5c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.5C to the 2nd.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 14.6C

[Stu_London]

14.4C to the 3rd

I would say the sharp rise continues today and tomorrow, before some stablizing somewhat.

Nothing really below average on the horizon much before the 12th of the month. Therefore even at this early stage I would say those that are sub 14 have little or no chance.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Stu_London

[kold weather]

Hmmm not quite so sure Stu, the 12z ECM would probably yeild a few days below average as would the 12z UKMO, the 12z GFS is a good deal warmer as it builds in the upper high towards the UK after a brief 24-36hrs of slightly below average temps.

Still I'd feel more comfortable right now if your gunning above average rather then below.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A very late 15c please. Been away down the Gower enjoying the heatwave.

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.0C to the 4th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Stu_London]

15.6C to the 5th

[damianslaw]

Very late with my prediction as I've been away for 10 days with no internet access. My prediction is 14.8 degrees.

No particularly very warm or hot weather, but plenty of mild nights thanks to the generally unsettled nature of the bump which will help keep the CET up, even if maxima is often average or even a bit below at times.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.7C to the 6th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 16.0C

[Kentish Kiwi]

Is there expected to be much of a drop from this coming cyclonic eastery to northely spell? It seems rain and cloud cover are likely to depress day time temperatures, although still rather mild/warm away from the east, but with the associated cloud cover and rather warm upper air (generally around +5hpa but +10hpa getting into Kent by around Thursday) night time temperatures could likely be above average, helping to keep the CET around the mid-high 14's by the end of the spell?

Edited June 7, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi

[summer blizzard]

Is there expected to be much of a drop from this coming cyclonic eastery to northely spell? It seems rain and cloud cover are likely to depress day time temperatures, although still rather mild/warm away from the east, but with the associated cloud cover and rather warm upper air (generally around +5hpa but +10hpa getting into Kent by around Thursday) night time temperatures could likely be above average, helping to keep the CET around the mid-high 14's by the end of the spell?

Looking at the GFS it screams near average CET days upto 240 hours out (13C to 15C means), the exception being tommorow which i actually think will come out pretty low (12C). Beyond that and the GFS6z brings the warmth back.

ECWMF actually goes for a warmer outlook, average at first but becoming increasingly warm (14C to 16C means).

GEM model goes the opposite with a cooler trend (12C to 14C means).

In conclusion, aside from tommorow there is a general concensus for average CET means upto day 5, afterward there is a split between the three long range models with the big guns going for an above average outlook, and the GEM opposing them going for a below average outlook.

Pretty obvious anyway, but a CET outcome by the 17th (240 hours out), is likely to be in the 13C to 15C range, so near enougth average despite the warm start.

[Stu_London]

15.5 to the 7th june

i'll stick to what I said before

Any guess below 14.5 is toast

[kold weather]

I think 15C is looking quite probable now Stu, the ENE will probably take us down somewhat and possibly even briefly below 15C but the broad evolution could well eventually bring a HP over the UK which will probably take us above 15C again...

That being said the ECM would certainly take us below 15C by the 18th, and if we were to get a decent -ve NAO 14.5C is still do able quite readily...but personally not sure its going to happen and I perfer the first solution rather then this one.

[AderynCoch]

So eight days in and another of my predictions has been flushed down the toilet (14.5C)?

A 15C+ June is fine by me: I'd just rather it occur due to warm, sunny days than mild, cloudy nights.

Edited June 8, 2010 by AderynCoch

[BornFromTheVoid]

An average 13.1C per day needed now just to get to average. While not unheard of, it is quite an ask at this stage. Still though, I wouldn't rule it out as if we get a strong mid Atlantic ridge giving north or northwesterly winds we could get quite a prolonged cool spell which could drag the CET back to even below average.

[TonyH]

Yes, and the cool spell that quite a few expected this week looks like being more of an average spell, what with warmish sunny intervals by day and mildish nights.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.4 to the 8th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 14.7

Looks to me like we will see small drops over the coming days and perhaps if the cool nights progged for early next week come off, one or two large drops may occur. I'd say sub 15 by mid-month, somewhere between 14.7-15.0C quite likely by 15th.

[summer blizzard]

I have taken a good look at the models and there have been a few small changes in the outlook from a few days ago when i last analysed them..

Firstly, GEM, GFS and ECWMF all agree on a average spell of weather from now until saturday/sunday (13C to 15C means).

Secondly, GEM, GFS and ECWMF all agree on a above average spell of weather beggining sunday/monday and lasting until at least wednesday (168 hours out) (14C to 16C means).

The split occurs at 192 hours out, in the low resolution timeframe, GFS continues the warm spell right through to 240 hours out (the period we are lokking at), while the ECWMF and GEM bring in a cyclonic polar airmass and associated below average temperatures.

With that in mind, i am certain that the CET will be between 15C and 16C on the 16th, afterward the GFS continues the current pattern, while the GEM and ECWMF bring in cool zonality.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.4C to the 9th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 15.4C

I still see some small drops over the coming day and think 15C or below by mid-month. A warm up looks likely after that, though not quite in the reliable time frame yet methinks,

[Stu_London]

Today probably won't drop that much given that last night came in at 12.6C for the minimum.

Looks like some falls to about mid month - not sure we will go under 15C however.

Ensemble data points to the period after mid month being above average.

Sub 14C or even sub 14.5C guesses need a pretty dramatic turnaround from the model output on offer currently.

FWIW, I think my 15.3C punt maybe on the low side.

Edited June 10, 2010 by Stu_London

[BornFromTheVoid]

Where do you get the recent min and max cet temperatures?

[AderynCoch]

Where do you get the recent min and max cet temperatures?

They're together with the overall mean:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/index.html