El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 3

[shuggee]

BBC weather on the news channel forecasting storms starting in a line east of Wash/Isle of Wight between 20h00 and 22h00 - then rumbling on through the night.

[Kain]

For those that missed it.

Torro Updated Forecast http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[PubliusEnigma]

Is it me or does it look like the possible MCS moving out of the Bay Biscay and into North France may just be a Kent clipper or is it supposed to take a more northerly route later?

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Yep, I think you are right. I dont think the forecasters got the airmass flow right. The track of these showers/storms

is definitly North East.

[paul m]

A lot of people especially where I live wait even years for a good storm and so when they think they may be in with a chance then what do you expect. So then if you know so much you tell me, are we likely to get a storm up here? If not, then that's even longer to wait and you can see why it is disappointing to some people. Not.

[Harry]

Is it me or does it look like the possible MCS moving out of the Bay Biscay and into North France may just be a Kent clipper or is it supposed to take a more northerly route later?

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

It is MEANT (emphasis MEANT) to swing more northerly later as advection pulls it in along a CF.

But, there is a surface low meant to develop across N France later today which could also throw it our way also...whether or not this low forms now because of the MCS is anyone's guess.

But really, I would wait and see what happens rather than second guess. We aren't relying on that MCS feature to bring us storms anyway, I understand there's the expectation more will fire both here and more so across the channel...

Edited June 27, 2011 by Harry

[dave reid]

I am currently having the same dilemma Dave! I will wait until around 7pm before I make a decision. IF it goes to plan and we see the first storms erupt across CS England over towards the SE, then HOPEFULLY by placing ourselves towards the coast and what with sunlight fading a short while after, we should get to see the storms developing and lining up before being emmersed in shear ecstacy and electricity...that's the plan anyway

Thanks for the reply.

Just had some great news, my wife now has a lift from a work mate so Im now free (but still married ) so can chase later and possibly further afield.

So you think sit tight and wait for a while?

I'll put the kettle on then

[Paul Sherman]

Currently near to Dunstable and interested in something kicking off around the SE Now as the Cirrus Canopy killed anything further West, keep the faith people!

Paul S

[Evening thunder]

Newcastle has disappeared behind a mist of torrential rain at the mo on this camera! http://www.tynebridg...m.com/north.htm

Could see far better a minute ago.. unless it's Harr off the North Sea suddenly?

Edit: already clearing up there in terms of rainfall intensity on that cam.

Edited June 27, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Alex95]

Torrential rain mixed with hail now! I thought I'd missed it. No barbecue now, its down to 15°C

[Chris.R]

Well I'd given up hope for any storms after the cirrus cloud came over, it just felt quite cold and fresh but now the sun has come out again and it's feeling humid again. I think something might just kick off here around 1730/1800 may be.

[anvilhead]

I think the NE storms have now organised before exiting into the north sea - not impossible to see a spin up and large hail over newcastle I'd say

[PersianPaladin]

Newcastle has disappeared behind a mist of torrential rain at the mo on this camera! http://www.tynebridg...m.com/north.htm

Could see far better a minute ago.. unless it's Harr off the North Sea suddenly?

Very localised downpours from the showers that are moving in.

Brightening here from the SW at present.

[Chris.R]

Well I'd given up hope for any storms after the cirrus cloud came over, it just felt quite cold and fresh but now the sun has come out again and it's feeling humid again. I think something might just kick off here around 1730/1800 may be.

[P-M]

Very heavy hail shower here now!

[Alex95]

Sun out - I think that might be it now. Loads of lightning and thunder to my east though. Hail and rain easing off.

Edited June 27, 2011 by alza

[Geordiesnow]

One of the better storms we get up here and the low cloud ruins any lightning displays, I must of heard about 50 rumbles of thunder(both from this storm and the one to the NW of Newcastle) and not one flash of lightning has been observed. Some of the raindrops are impressive mind, oh well, the 23rd September storm is still better in my eyes, at least I could see the lightning then.

[Dorset_Weather]

It is MEANT (emphasis MEANT) to swing more northerly later as advection pulls it in along a CF.

But, there is a surface low meant to develop across N France later today which could also throw it our way also...whether or not this low forms now because of the MCS is anyone's guess.

But really, I would wait and see what happens rather than second guess. We aren't relying on that MCS feature to bring us storms anyway, I understand there's the expectation more will fire both here and more so across the channel...

Cheers Harry and PE, just trying to work out what direction to head in for tonight's possible storms, don't fancy doing 200 odd mile for drizzle lol

[Alex95]

One of the better storms we get up here and the low cloud ruins any lightning displays, I must of heard about 50 rumbles of thunder(both from this storm and the one to the NW of Newcastle) and not one flash of lightning has been observed. Some of the raindrops are impressive mind, oh well, the 23rd September storm is still better in my eyes, at least I could see the lightning then.

I had quite a good view of the lightning here, possible because I wasn't directly under the storm until the last 10 minutes.

[Snowstorm1]

So jealous of you'se lot just further north than me!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some loud rumbles 10-20 minutes ago but now the storm seems to have passed through, leaving sea fog.

[anvilhead]

possibly something going up near leeds -

[PubliusEnigma]

What about the cold front?? That will get things going across the SE surely?? (when it arrives).

Well the cold front looks rather benign at the moment, with a very narrow band of showery rain off the coast

of Cornwall.

The problem is the huge gap over Biscay with No development at all. Its here we would need to see thundery development

for it to affect the majority of England. Alas for somereason the skies remain clear. As the cold front comes east this evening, providing the skies clear and we get a little more sun, and heating the front may trigger some thundery activitiy

as it clears east overnight. Depends on the sun making a reappearance, getting shot of the pesky milky skies, and how quickly the cold front is moving.. plus other mitigating factors.

[P-M]

Sun trying to come out now, that was great and I am one happy lad. At least I wont feel as bad when the south gets pounded tonight!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I had quite a good view of the lightning here, possible because I wasn't directly under the storm until the last 10 minutes.

I think it'll have mainly been the low cloud like Geordiesnow suggested- the low cloud is close to the surface (indeed it's now descended to the surface at Cleadon) and it tends to blot out lightning strikes unless they're within a few miles.

[Lauren]

Hmmmmm not liking the look of the cloud cover we have currently, not stor clouds for sure. Temperature has taken a dive now.

FRom all the talk has the chnaces for this area seriously declinednow, or are people just being pessimistic?