El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 3

[Neilsouth]

If we don't get any storms in the south east it would've been the biggest balls up by all the forecasters i can think of and a real slap in the face if the ne get near severe and we get nought!

Will wait and see, got many hours to wait yet

[snow raven]

Getting cloudy again in Bexleyheath - quite thick cloud as well :unsure:

[P-M]

jeez christ that was a bulls eye on me hoose.multiple srikes and torrential rain with large hail.legged it from the greenhouse as it looked like the roof was comming in.

lmao I was watching it from the west peter, it seems to be backbuilding to the south. I can still hear it rumbling away!

[Harry]

your looking at the wrong cell, i mean near SW coast heading N/NE , heading for hampshire dorset area

Besides that, as the CF advances and pressure falls this should draw any storms across N France in a more northerly or even NW'erly direction as the warm air advects (or gets 'sucked') into it.

Furthermore, should the surface low form across northern France this may further assist in picking up a SE-NW flow ahead of it.

[Delta76]

some big spots o rain in the last five mins here in Bramley, 4 miles East o Rotherham .

[*Stormforce~beka*]

People over Hampshire must be gutted, early rain must be ruining daily heating, some cloud here from time to time but no rain yet and still in the mid twenties.

You can't be gutted if you don't expect anything to happen and most of us didn't ;-)

[Thundery Shower]

Still sefrics from the small cells now entering the channel, Cmon intensify !!

[nanu]

Getting cloudy again in Bexleyheath - quite thick cloud as well :unsure:

im watching it right above me.. but just slowly gliding across and not building.. looks like the cap is winning.

[PolarWarsaw]

Pretty much game over here now. Thick layer of cloud and drizzly rain. How boring.

[snow raven]

im watching it right above me.. but just slowly gliding across and not building.. looks like the cap is winning.

Is that a good thing?

[Neilsouth]

Wasn't the storms due from 6pm onwards in the south east?

[Alex95]

The storm is skirting to my NW now giving me a good lightning show

There's another coming in from the SW now - that might be a direct hit, but that would mean I wouldn't get as good a view of the lightning.

Edited June 27, 2011 by alza

[pinball wizard]

It's currently 32c here in Bury, earlier haze has been replaced with blue skies and a few fluffy cu clouds.

[UKSupercell]

Hello all, haven't posted here probably since last summer.

As for all this hype about big thunderstorms today, courtesy of the BBC, Metoffice, Estofex etc....my bets are damn all will actually happen.

Grey cloud here now, interesting formation, saw some bubbling cumulus to the North-West of South Bucks earlier, can't see it now. Had a very light rain shower about 30-60 mins ago.

Looks like damn all home grown stuff and who actually has any confidence in these French imports we're expected to get later today? If there are any, my bets are they hit Kent and miss everyone else. Or they hit Bristol and they're too West for Bucks and London.

Please God prove me wrong and give me a spectacular lightning display and large hail? Something to remember, as the last big thunderstorm here must've been in 2006 or 07. It's been ages.

Sorry for being so pessimistic but I haven't seen a good thunderstorm in bloomin years!

[UKVoodoo]

I know people are getting disappointed but im sure we've got another 2 hrs atleast before anything really kicks off so dont give up yet everyone

[NO LONGER POSTING]

whats going on over spain 0.0

[Neilsouth]

Are the cells in france moving more north now?

[A.J]

Its quite noticable that the Cirrus sheild from the MCS remnant is dissapating, allowing convection to readily get going....two areas of note, one on the SE flank of the remnant allowing rapid convection in the home counties/London area, and another area on the SW flank of the remnant over wales and the west country .From an IMBY perspective I'm more interested in this one, as some clearer skies can hopefully lead to some isolated home growns (as per the UKWW/Torro updated forecast) as there's still favourable dynamics...Also further to the SW, an interesting area of thundery showers off the devon/cornwall coast, hopefully these can tap into the energy and lift available as they move NNE/NE into the west country, parts of the midlands and the east midlands over the next few hours....All in all, everything is to play for, as conditions are becoming increasingly favourable in many areas

[Matt B]

Surely the quickness and intensity of the homegrowns in NE is something to remain positive about!?. Just shows how quick thinks can change. Keep the faith people, keep the faith!

[Coast]

Wow, what a lot of negativity all of a sudden. As we still have all night and into the early hours to go, it might be prudent to hang on until tomorrow before taking your Top Trumps cards home! :lol:

This isn't over by a long chalk yet.

Yes, main area of interest does appear to be across E Anglia/SE England, and perhaps Cent S England overnight, especially later tonight, and for a time tomorrow morning. As Paul mentions, the current area of mid-level activity over the SW should spread NNE through today - as this is indicative of an area of ascent, it's not out of the question that further activity forms from the boundary layer within this mass further NE, with isolated activity building back into more southern areas - any such activity will be subject to reasonable shear and so may be fairly organised.

Overnight, it looks like the activity will be rooted above a cooling boundary layer (surface flow veers to a northerly component) - 850 flow and above remains with a southerly component, and so isentropic lift of the warm/moist layer around 850 mb should help lift parcels to their level of free convection. Cloud layer shear on the order of 20-25 knots should allow for some organised storms to form - indeed, slight veering of the flow could help aid in mid-level mesocyclone development, so there is the chance of some large hail with overnight activity

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=43645&posts=14&start=1

[Mikel Nimbus]

You seen the line of cells exploding across the NE?

It's times like this I'm glad I have NW radar. That beast east of Newcastle is still growing and is going to nail the city center. Anyone up there you should have some fun and games soon.

[Harry]

Wasn't the storms due from 6pm onwards in the south east?

Indeed, well remembered and re-advertised VW

[Hammer]

Cloudy to the west of here. Conditions seem absolutely perfect for storms in this region.

I would think this window of opportunity is also quite a long one from this current time through the night.

So people DO need to be patient.

[nanu]

Is that a good thing?

not at mo... as it stops the clouds from gaining height and turning into storm clouds.... but theres hope left yet, just got a call from a friend in london saying theres huge raindrops falling..

[Biggin]

Early days for the SE, nothing meant to happen for at least a couple of hours here.