Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[Matty M]

18z slightly further south than its 12z but very similar to 12z from ECM and UKM.

reintensification taking place around T30hrs.

Although start pressure is wrong and it fills it to 970mb 12 hours from now.,

[weatherobsuk]

Swell forecast map in response to the 20mb, lower than expected central pressure

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/

[Tim Barclay Furdui]

I think will all be ok!

[chionomaniac]

The angulation and intensity of the jet stream seem to have delayed ex Katia's impact on our shores by around 6-12 hours . However, the jet streak is stronger and therefore ex Katia is no weaker than initially forecast - just a little later. Perhaps if anything she is positioned a touch further north. If the fax charts are to be believed then the severest winds will be limited to Scotland with the risk diminishing for England. Undecided on how strong the winds will be for NI just yet.

[Cloudwatcher]

Can't see anything above 20-30mph tops hitting this neck of the woods. Think "breezy" rather than "hurricanes" the order of the day here on sun/mon

[Matty M]

Well the GFS 18z is initiated wrong.

The NAE 18z is interesting in its intensity.

Tracks the storm well to our NW.

I remain sceptical of all models.

NAE maybe first to handle it.

But has it well into the sea.

[cookie27]

How much in the Full moon on Monday going to affect the sea and thus rainfall amounts. can see some serious flooding in some parts..p.s fancy being sat on Giants Causeway for this event

[Cloudwatcher]

Not wishing to rain on anyones parade but latest models show it tracking further north and west than originally forecast. NW coast of Scotland will get clipped but thats about it. This going to be biggest non-event of 2011. Press are ramping it up and is an "event" only in the context of the incredibly dull weather we have had to suffer in 2011. Be surprised if even the Outer Hebrides see gusts above 40-50mph.

[Liam J]

Not wishing to rain on anyones parade but latest models show it tracking further north and west than originally forecast. NW coast of Scotland will get clipped but thats about it. This going to be biggest non-event of 2011. Press are ramping it up and is an "event" only in the context of the incredibly dull weather we have had to suffer in 2011. Be surprised if even the Outer Hebrides see gusts above 40-50mph.

Most of Western Scotland and Isles will experience severe gales or storm force winds on the 18z runs from GFS and NAE.

[shedhead]

Eh, well, our local weather just predicted gales of up to 70 mph in West Yorkshire, one of the most populated areas of Britain. Don't think that's over hyping, but a possibility. To say 'No, that will not happen at all', is just a tad ignorant IMO. Of course I am not really expecting 70 mph winds here.

Irrespective of you viewpoint there is no need to accuse anyone of ignorance, it's all about opinions, mine being as equally valid as your and visa versa. I stand by my assertion that in general this system and it's likely effects are being over exaggerated in the main, while in some quarters of the media massively over sensationalised doesn't even go part way to decribing it. Whatever your take on things however, the bottom line is 48hrs from now we'll be dealing with facts rather than supposition... so let's wait and see just how it all pans out shall we?

[TEITS]

Irrespective of you viewpoint there is no need to accuse anyone of ignorance, it's all about opinions, mine being as equally valid as your and visa versa. I stand by my assertion that in general this system and it's likely effects are being over exaggerated in the main, while in some quarters of the media massively over sensationalised doesn't even go part way to decribing it. Whatever your take on things however, the bottom line is 48hrs from now we'll be dealing with facts rather than supposition... so let's wait and see just how it all pans out shall we?

if

Surely alot depends on your location because conditions are going to be massively different in say NW Scotland compared to say E Anglia. As I said last night, for my location I doubt I will even notice the storm but the same cannot be said for parts of Scotland, possibly N Ireland.

Have to be honest i've been rather puzzled at some of the posts today. At no stage did this storm ever look to impact the S and Scotland has always been in the firing line. The uncertainity has been for N Ireland/N England because obviously the track has varied between model runs.

Let me just say I wouldn't want to be in Scotland especially NW parts!

Edited September 10, 2011 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Liam J]

Latest fax chart shows 'Post Katia' as a very intense dart board low of 957mb.

[weatherobsuk]

You wouldn't think on the European IR the 'leaf' coming into view now is Katia, but no doubt that's our system for tomorrow.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/rb-l.jpg

[ZONE 51]

Not wishing to rain on anyones parade but latest models show it tracking further north and west than originally forecast. NW coast of Scotland will get clipped but thats about it. This going to be biggest non-event of 2011. Press are ramping it up and is an "event" only in the context of the incredibly dull weather we have had to suffer in 2011. Be surprised if even the Outer Hebrides see gusts above 40-50mph.

this was before the model runs changed its track a little and that could roll back south again.

This is a big storm it is still to hit our shores dont underestimate this storm, the models are indicating a dangerous storm, the track is still not 100% certain just yet, warning get moved with what the models are indicating and may change on sunday covering more south or less south.

[West Sussex Kate]

Night all I think tomorrow things will look a little clearer!

[ZONE 51]

http://www.weather.org.uk/models.htm Edited September 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[weatherobsuk]

Its not everyday Glasgow gets a mention on the NHC public advisory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/101454.shtml

ABOUT 1960 MI...3160 KM WSW OF GLASGOW SCOTLAND

[cookie27]

Can someone please tell me what happened to MetOffice invent map, when we could really need it, it has disappear...have they got something to hide?

[glasgow-guy]

Can someone please tell me what happened to MetOffice invent map, when we could really need it, it has disappear...have they got something to hide?

the met-office invent map i think was a trial for there new web page which is slowly rolling out to be completed by 2012 as far as i know

[cookie27]

the met-office invent map i think was a trial for there new web page which is slowly rolling out to be completed by 2012 as far as i know

thanks Glasgow.. new site is rubbish

[ZONE 51]

An example of just how powerful this storm is going to be, ive indicated on GFS 18z charts some arrows, it really puts those ideas of downgrades in place, the North is going to get battered.

i do worry for the zones of intense winds, and for South England its going to be very very gusty for many areas, so dont think its going to be nothing here in the south.

last chart is up to 3pm after that plenty more severe weather. and this is only GFS alone so it might not be the exact areas to where the storm hits, as we use more then one model,

Edited September 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[glasgow-guy]

all eyes on the Met Office today Will they issue a red Alert or keep the Amber warning

[ZONE 51]

i would expect a flash warning to be issued early hours of monday when she knocks at the door up North.

still not a track thats set with glue, a slight change could come into effect.

[ZONE 51]

GFS 00z(left side) up to-0600hrs-0900hrs predicted track the same as 18z(right side of image)

[Aaron]

Irrespective of you viewpoint there is no need to accuse anyone of ignorance, it's all about opinions, mine being as equally valid as your and visa versa. I stand by my assertion that in general this system and it's likely effects are being over exaggerated in the main, while in some quarters of the media massively over sensationalised doesn't even go part way to decribing it. Whatever your take on things however, the bottom line is 48hrs from now we'll be dealing with facts rather than supposition... so let's wait and see just how it all pans out shall we?

Fair dues. As I said I am not expecting anything significant, but I'll just wait and see, seems the Met are reserving the strongest winds for Tuesday now, so another 48 hours to go!?