Cold Spell Discussion

[weatherobsuk]

forecasts going for snow depths of 10-25cm across the higher tops of Wales, Scotland and Cumbria. With the rest of the UK anywhere between 5-10cm lower layers and around the Pennines, these next couple of days should be interesting to see the typical British reaction to the winter weather given the mild temps given so far. Co-Incidentally the first of the snows start to settle on a rush-hour Monday morning aswell.

[cheshire snow]

forecasts going for snow depths of 10-25cm across the higher tops of Wales, Scotland and Cumbria. With the rest of the UK anywhere between 5-10cm lower layers and around the Pennines, these next couple of days should be interesting to see the typical British reaction to the winter weather given the mild temps given so far. Co-Incidentally the first of the snows start to settle on a rush-hour Monday morning aswell.

Where did you get that info from

C.S

[k19]

forecasts going for snow depths of 10-25cm across the higher tops of Wales, Scotland and Cumbria. With the rest of the UK anywhere between 5-10cm lower layers and around the Pennines, these next couple of days should be interesting to see the typical British reaction to the winter weather given the mild temps given so far. Co-Incidentally the first of the snows start to settle on a rush-hour Monday morning aswell.

All the forecast's I have read are still viewing the situation as marginal. Which is usual for where I am on the coast, but the synoptics seem very good for places like manchester. I am unsure of any lying snow though, the ground hasn't been below freezing much in low lying areas, so I can't see it sticking around to cause problems unless the temperature dips well below 0- I also doubt that there will be enough snow to bring the freezing level down or to cool the ground sufficiently.

[leicsnow]

I think there may be some minor snowfall as far down as my location tomorrow evening and Monday. Probably of no significance unless in North England and Scotland.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, the showers are starting to get all the way across to the Tyne and Wear/Durham/Northumberland coasts now, but Cleadon keeps "taking the dry line" with potent showers moving just to the north and south and only weaklings ever appearing on a collision course for Cleadon, whereupon they of course die out before they get here.

Of course, with temps of 6.6C it would only be rain were any to hit.

[Teesdale]

Fairly frequent shrs here, 7.4mm precip today. Odd bit of sleet in heavier shrs. Temp between 3/4C most of the time.

Looks like snow shrs tomorrow afternoon onwards.

Can do fairly well in a WNW flow here in regard to snowfall.

Edited December 3, 2011 by Teesdale

[Snowstorm1]

I wonder if this could be one of the type of set-ups where there could be few surprises this side of the Pennines?

[Teesdale]

I wonder if this could be one of the type of set-ups where there could be few surprises this side of the Pennines?

I would be surpirsed if there is any lying snow East of the A1, unless its from a trough or convergence zone enchacing the shrs.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Cleadon has finally caught one of the showers, due to a slight change in wind direction taking the "dry line" a bit south of here. As expected, rain, though I think there's a chance of the odd bit of sleet at low levels tomorrow.

[Cheese Rice]

I'm expecting to see alot of wintry showers from Sunday Night through to Monday evening.

The showers have had no problem making there way here, some heavy and prolonged with strong winds. At times under streamers too which been in the Otley gap helps. The wind direction is generally west to east which is even better.

Really looking forward to some wintry weather!

[Aaron]

Plenty of showers here today too

[GulberwickWeather]

Hi all. Much colder here now and just had a blustery snow shower, first of many hopefully

Temp: 2.6C, DP: 0C, Wind Chill: -4.9C

[Snowstorm1]

LOCAL NORTHEAST ENGLAND FORECAST : She just said snow showers coming to towns and cities woop!

Monday Morning Onwards I May Add

Edited December 3, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Zenarcher]

Last night we had plenty of wintry showers passing through with a wind chill reaching -12c. Currently the wind has dropped but still getting some hail showers and wind chill is -4c.

[weatherobsuk]

The 10-25cm heights are a forecast for the next 4-6 days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[A Winter's Tale]

What's confusing me is the precipitation charts which show showers only confined to western coasts (particulary in Western Scotland). If that were to happen here in Scotland, most the Scottish members would miss out on any significant snowfalls but I'm sure that warm seas should see showers heading quite a bit further inland. And if a North Eastern Forecast says Snow then I'm sure that anywhere north of Manchester could see snow.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS precipitation outputs are a good general guide within about T+48, although in my experience they often underestimate how far inland the showers penetrate in both westerly and easterly airstreams. A good example is occurring this evening, with the GFS precipitation outputs for 18Z suggesting dry along the Tyne and Wear/Durham/Northumberland coastline and light showers inland, when in reality coastal areas are getting a scattering of light-moderate showers and inland areas are seeing some heavier ones.

However if the precipitation outputs suggest dry over wide areas then don't expect more than the odd rogue shower.

Therefore I think today's pattern is likely to continue through tomorrow and Monday, again some heavy showers in the west but just a scattering of mainly light showers reaching eastern coastal areas. For Tuesday, the outputs currently suggest dry over wide areas so I suggest most areas to the east of the Pennines are looking likely to be dry and sunny. I think around the Tyne and Wear/Durham area, there is roughly a 30% chance of a dusting of snow near the coast on Monday morning in any one location, rising to 60% as you get well inland and stay near sea level, and higher than that if you get above about 200m.

[itsnowjoke]

im quite excited about the possibility of some wintry showers next week.

[Aaron]

The GFS precipitation outputs are a good general guide within about T+48, although in my experience they often underestimate how far inland the showers penetrate in both westerly and easterly airstreams. A good example is occurring this evening, with the GFS precipitation outputs for 18Z suggesting dry along the Tyne and Wear/Durham/Northumberland coastline and light showers inland, when in reality coastal areas are getting a scattering of light-moderate showers and inland areas are seeing some heavier ones.

However if the precipitation outputs suggest dry over wide areas then don't expect more than the odd rogue shower.

Therefore I think today's pattern is likely to continue through tomorrow and Monday, again some heavy showers in the west but just a scattering of mainly light showers reaching eastern coastal areas. For Tuesday, the outputs currently suggest dry over wide areas so I suggest most areas to the east of the Pennines are looking likely to be dry and sunny. I think around the Tyne and Wear/Durham area, there is roughly a 30% chance of a dusting of snow near the coast on Monday morning in any one location, rising to 60% as you get well inland and stay near sea level, and higher than that if you get above about 200m.

True, we got a few beefy showers today, one with a rain rate/hr of over 33mm

[cyclonic happiness]

Hopefully the northwesterly element to any showers later in the week could allow the Midlands to get a few flakes through the Chesire gap.

Be nice to have a few hoar frosts though, to make the place look a little more like winter, and to get any remaining leaves off the trees, the oaks down here still have around 60%!!.

[Backtrack]

We've only had one or two showers today, but had more in the morning. Really hope they don't keep following this line over the next few days, would ensure that we stayed dry.......... no thanks...

[itsnowjoke]

hey backtrack hope u r well.

[Backtrack]

hey backtrack hope u r well.

Not bad thanks, you?

[itsnowjoke]

Not bad thanks, you?

not too bad although the Mrs always falls out with me at this time o year. "your always on the laptop at this time o year" oooops lol

[Backtrack]

not too bad although the Mrs always falls out with me at this time o year. "your always on the laptop at this time o year" oooops lol

Does she not like snow then? :o

7.5C here, far too warm for snow. Snowing over Scotland with uppers of -4C, can only be a good sign for us.