Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 part 3

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Long time since I've been out of bed at 5am.

Impressive 12 hour rainfall totals, looks like up to 80mm has fallen...

I wouldn't be surprised if there was some flooding around that area.

[Evening thunder]

And yet another day where the SW is about the only region not covered by the Netw storm forecast. The better conditions keep passing over overnight when CAPE can't develop over the land.. Lets hope something can happen here before the CAPE starts to retreat again this afternoon. Tomorrow is a day which was shown to be promising, but now there's virtually no CAPE shown over the SW with it all elsewhere and in the east again.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Early storm just east of Liverpool has produced a couple of sferics already.

It's a long way off Nottingham but it's heading this way.

Hopefully on the 5th day of waiting I might finally see something here, but I think my home in County Durham would be a better place to be today especially with the wind convergence up there.

[A.J]

Early storm just east of Liverpool has produced a couple of sferics already.

It's a long way off Nottingham but it's heading this way.

Hopefully on the 5th day of waiting I might finally see something here, but I think my home in County Durham would be a better place to be today especially with the wind convergence up there.

Was just about to post on that early morning riser of a storm Mark...You beat me to it!

[Liam J]

Latest Netweather convective/storm forecast - http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Good luck to you all, I'm off to Northumberland around lunchtime and hoping things will be a lot more interesting than they have been in Cumbria for the last few days... One T-storm isn't too much to ask for is it?

Edited April 21, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Storm appears in the same place as yesterday near Liverpool!!

[Harry]

Well....I'm in Eastbourne right now and for the rest of the weekend with the other half and a couple of mates!!!

Fingers crossed I'm going to be able to share some of Coast's glory if there's nothing here this weekend, then Coast, I'm so deeply sorry for jinxing you mate

[chionomaniac]

Well....I'm in Eastbourne right now and for the rest of the weekend with the other half and a couple of mates!!!

Fingers crossed I'm going to be able to share some of Coast's glory if there's nothing here this weekend, then Coast, I'm so deeply sorry for jinxing you mate

Harry have a look out at the anvil to your south west !

You could be in the firing line.

Edited April 21, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Kain]

Another day much of the same, including us west midlanders clutching at straws hoping to see something! Lovely sunny morning here so we can't blame cloud cover today! We have abit of CAPE avalible too so all we can do is cross our fingers today.

East are garanteed something hehe

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the shower over Stoke area looks like missing me to the east, dont expect it contains hail/thunder this early

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Good luck all today had such a wicked storm yesterday here! Hope the weekend brings more!

[chionomaniac]

Just got a photo of some mammatus from the tail end of the storm heading Coast's and Harry's way. I'll try and get a few today if possible and post later.

[Guest QuantumSnow]

Well....I'm in Eastbourne right now and for the rest of the weekend with the other half and a couple of mates!!!

Fingers crossed I'm going to be able to share some of Coast's glory if there's nothing here this weekend, then Coast, I'm so deeply sorry for jinxing you mate

Judging by your luck of late that might be a good thing Harry! Bring it with you our way please!!

[Lewis]

Quick video from me, only just woke up like, but don't worry, i still managed to blab on!

Lewis

Edited April 21, 2012 by UK Storm Chasers

[Coast]

Well....I'm in Eastbourne right now and for the rest of the weekend with the other half and a couple of mates!!!

Fingers crossed I'm going to be able to share some of Coast's glory if there's nothing here this weekend, then Coast, I'm so deeply sorry for jinxing you mate

Looking reasonable H!!! As Nick has forecast, looks like more of the same today and maybe we'll be in for some of it this time. ESTOFEX say:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 21 Apr 2012 06:00 to Sun 22 Apr 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 21 Apr 2012 07:20

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for eastern France and western Germany for large hail and tornado/severe gusts near the Alps.

SYNOPSIS

A large low pressure area covers Europe from Ireland to Ukraine, northern Italy to central Scandinavia. The low pressure centers are found over the western North Sea and western Ukraine. A cool unstable airmass with steep lapse rates and slight to moderate CAPE covers almost the entire area. Almost everywhere the small-hail chances will be enhanced due to a low freezing level and not too low LCL. The eastern half of the area sees warm air advection into Belarus and a weak trough coming in from Romania. Flow and shear are weak there. Near an old front over Poland some 15 m/s deep layer shear can enhance storm dynamics and larger hail chances. More dynamics and vertical wind shear are encountered over northern Turkey and over central France through Germany, where a second cold upper airmass enters, with linear forcing by a marked PV maximum.

UKASF, SkyWarn and TORRO don't have a current forecast, TORRO will no doubt put something out later this morning.

More pictures!

These general forecast don't have anything until the end of the day, not sure if that's true as it's already gone very dark here.

21st OWS map is similar to the Netweather one:

Ensemble lightning strike area much the same as the rest of this week:

Again much better later on:

CAPE over my part of SE England and up to the Norfolk boarder

Lapse rates OK, again the SE corner seems favoured later:

Perhaps my little corner of the World will be lucky today, only downer is the CIN kicking in later:

[Coast]

Nice cell over Swansea at the moment!!!

[Kookylou]

hail and torrential rain in cardiff at the minute

[Liam J]

A few CN starting to tower up around these parts, April sun beaming down ATM so this should aid the development nicely.

Nice cell between Swansea and Cardiff giving hail right now as reported by Louisa. Northern Ireland could also have an interesting day looking at the latest radar.

Edited April 21, 2012 by Liam J

[DeepSnow]

Had some moderate rain and hail from that cell, skies looked quite dark and stormy!

[Lewis]

Bubbling up, was a a slight CAP yesterday here near the East Coast, took a while for one large cell to bust it, could just see it building to a certain height and flattening.

Think today is a much better day, and I have no doubt conditions are entirely favorable.

Just took a picture, clearly shows how it's bubbling up nicely with some lovely picturesque towers around.

Lewis

[slb97]

Bubbling up, was a a slight CAP yesterday here near the East Coast, took a while for one large cell to bust it, could just see it building to a certain height and flattening.

Think today is a much better day, and I have no doubt conditions are entirely favorable.

Just took a picture, clearly shows how it's bubbling up nicely with some lovely picturesque towers around.

Lewis

Hello all,

Our skies are similar here on the south coast - I'm going house viewing in a minute further inland so at least I'll be out and about! Great forecast videos by the way Lewis - you have a very calming voice!

[Neilsouth]

Big towers going up already over kent, with rain streaks from one of them

[Kain]

Convection kicking off here now

[NO LONGER POSTING]

eww that cell over Cardiff is killing itself...

[Liam J]

Certainly more showers developing over N & NW England than recent days, could be very interesting this afternoon but lets wait and see.