South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - Part 3

[Neilsouth]

I can't believe the South east has gone quiet

Thats what we get for trusting stupid warnings I guess

[Anthonyb]

Why anyone would take those warnings as gospel is beyond me anyway.

I mentioned in my previous post that those warnings are useless in these set ups.

A lovely evening here once again if rather chilly the past hour.

Another warm day for London tomorrow with temps reaching 25c but with a much greater chance of showers although these will be light in nature and not torrential which is good.

Rest of week looks becoming much cooler and cloudier but Saturday looks like brightening up again with temps mid to high teens.

Edited May 29, 2012 by Anthonyb

[Robbie Garrett]

A friend of mine just posted this on Facebook!! Sunset over London!!

Edited May 29, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[ZONE 51]

Not so convinced about Meto warnings in these situations. Take yesterday for instance, some that we're in the warning got nothing including myself were as others got very wet and were not in the warning area.

Tbh there should be no specific area warnings within the region and just a warning of showers anywhere across the region. In these circumstancies obviously.

Just watched the lunchtime bbc London forecast. A lot of blue with lightning graphics south of the river and he also mentioned showers setting up from east to out west rather than south to north like yesterday.

This is the very nature of isolated storms, the area covered is where the elements are there to possibly come together and form a thunderstorm, where those do develop is hard to pinpoint exactly, this warning zone sometimes is moved, and sometimes the clouds just don't get pushed up high enough!

[john pike]

if gfs 18z is right the bank holiday will be wet

plenty of chopping and changing to come yet

tomorrow

another day of radar watching

someone will see a storm while the other person will

wonder what all the fuss is about.

i reckon we will all see some showers tomorrow

not too sure about storms but maybe triggered if we get high

enough temperatures.

18z ensembles

according to them monday and tuesday look dry but a tad low in temperature

14-16 degrees.

not cold but will feel like it after the last few days

Edited May 30, 2012 by john pike

[Steve C]

Why anyone would take those warnings as gospel is beyond me anyway.

I mentioned in my previous post that those warnings are useless in these set ups.

A lovely evening here once again if rather chilly the past hour.

Another warm day for London tomorrow with temps reaching 25c but with a much greater chance of showers although these will be light in nature and not torrential which is good.

Rest of week looks becoming much cooler and cloudier but Saturday looks like brightening up again with temps mid to high teens.

I'm not trying to have a go, but you need to post that a Met Office warning is useless, when it's issued, rather than be disparaging after the event, to gain more credibility. There's a big difference between being 'not so convinced', as you said (and like most other posters implied too) than saying something is 'useless'

In my opinion, the sheet of low level cloud that spread over East Anglia and Essex today ( which has now gone ) and which would have been very hard to forecast, inhibited temperature rise here, convection and subsequent convergence, over the Thames Estuary. If this convergence had happened then big showers would have developed, even if possibly isolated in nature.

It looks like the showers forecast tomorrow have been downgraded in intensity now, but some of us could still be in for a soaking. We'll have to see.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Speed67

[Anthonyb]

I'm not trying to have a go, but you need to post that a Met Office warning is useless, when it's issued, rather than be disparaging after the event, to gain more credibility. There's a big difference between being 'not so convinced', as you said (and like most other posters implied too) than saying something is 'useless'

In my opinion, the sheet of low level cloud that spread over East Anglia and Essex today ( which has now gone ) and which would have been very hard to forecast, inhibited temperature rise here, convection and subsequent convergence, over the Thames Estuary. If this convergence had happened then big showers would have developed, even if possibly isolated in nature.

It looks like the showers forecast tomorrow have been downgraded in intensity now, but some of us could still be in for a soaking. We'll have to see.

Ok maybe the word 'useless' is a bit too strong.

All I know is I've been forecast via weather reports and warnings for storms in my area since Monday and not had one drop of rain and when you see a yellow warning of thunderstorms with the chance of flooding it can be very misleading especially for joe public.

My point is - not to issue such a warning of a specific area and make it as a chance for whole region in these kind of situations, as like you have just said these set ups are so difficult to forecast.

The Meto warnings are excellent in winter and when we have more general widespread weather but in these set ups as proved can be difficult to pin point.

[Steve C]

Weather is hazy today. Hopefully it's going to become hazy sunshine, rather than yesterday's disappointingly cloudy day.

I see the forecasters are being reticent about the Bank Holiday weekend. It looks like early on may be reasonable, if coolish (and they still hedge their bets, by saying "at the moment" etc.) They don't seem to want to think about Monday or Tuesday though.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Speed67

[Steve C]

Ok maybe the word 'useless' is a bit too strong.

All I know is I've been forecast via weather reports and warnings for storms in my area since Monday and not had one drop of rain and when you see a yellow warning of thunderstorms with the chance of flooding it can be very misleading especially for joe public.

My point is - not to issue such a warning of a specific area and make it as a chance for whole region in these kind of situations, as like you have just said these set ups are so difficult to forecast.

The Meto warnings are excellent in winter and when we have more general widespread weather but in these set ups as proved can be difficult to pin point.

You definitely have a point in maybe using a risk factor, rather than a general warning.

[Methuselah]

Ok maybe the word 'useless' is a bit too strong.

All I know is I've been forecast via weather reports and warnings for storms in my area since Monday and not had one drop of rain and when you see a yellow warning of thunderstorms with the chance of flooding it can be very misleading especially for joe public.

My point is - not to issue such a warning of a specific area and make it as a chance for whole region in these kind of situations, as like you have just said these set ups are so difficult to forecast.

The Meto warnings are excellent in winter and when we have more general widespread weather but in these set ups as proved can be difficult to pin point.

What happens when a flash flood develops in a very isolated location?

I can't see how it's at all possible to issue (storm) warnings that can pinpoint small localities accurately. Just because my exact location didn't get 'thunderated' on Monday didn't render the MetO warnings 'useless'...The 'thunderation' events were 15 miles to the East. Not that bad really, when all things are considered?

[Anthonyb]

What happens when a flash flood develops in a very isolated location?

I can't see how it's at all possible to issue (storm) warnings that can pinpoint small localities accurately. Just because my exact location didn't get 'thunderated' on Monday didn't render the MetO warnings 'useless'...The 'thunderation' events were 15 miles to the East. Not that bad really, when all things are considered?

I did say that the word 'useless' I shouldn't have used.

But considering I was forecast flooding and storms and didn't even have one drop of water and was put in the warning area I would say yes that was bad actually when all things considered.

[Keraunic]

Muggy, quite breezy and cloudy here in Norwich. There are some dark, fairly large clouds bubbling up to the S W but no idea what that portends. Just rain I suppose. Boooooring.

[Anthonyb]

Still wall to wall sunshine here in loughton.

Was expecting clouds by now

[tinybill]

i see thunder storms in the english channel at the moment might get interesting later

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Guest archiesmummy]

Lovely cu clouds building here now from the west, south west mainly but building quite quickly, been watching that in the channel too...come on got to have something today!

[snow raven]

Lovely cu clouds building here now from the west, south west mainly but building quite quickly, been watching that in the channel too...come on got to have something today!

Fingers crossed - otherwise it means I have to water my flowers when I get home from work!

[Anthonyb]

Clouds really building now. Be very surprised if my garden doesn't get wet today.

Feels warm and muggy out there today, already 4c warmer than yesterday

[Steve C]

Clouds really building now. Be very surprised if my garden doesn't get wet today.

Feels warm and muggy out there today, already 4c warmer than yesterday

Same here with temperatures. I can see there's a thunderstorm south of Swindon at the moment. More are very likely to get going soon.

[Keraunic]

Very warm here, and some anvil clouds building up. It looks good.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Very warm here, and some anvil clouds building up. It looks good.

I love those anvil clouds! Really hope you get something today! Is looking more interesting today, out west at the moment but hoping will build as it feeds off the heat.

On a very scientific note, have just brought the washing in so bound to miss me, am going to hang it out again and put the kids soft toys out again, that should do it! Lol

[Hughsey]

Good to see the convection firing up in the east country, feeling quite confident we in the east will be seeing some decent thunderstorms later. Was expecting temperatures to peak between 21 and 23 degrees today but up to 24.8 degrees so temperature is on our side when it comes to convection. Going to enjoy watching the radar over the next couple of hours .

also wow at the Swindon/Oxford cell, lots of sferics and torrential rain coming out of that, appears to be growing still too.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Hughsey

[Steve C]

Looks like it's starting over south London too!

[Steve C]

Good to see the convection firing up in the east country, feeling quite confident we in the east will be seeing some decent thunderstorms later. Was expecting temperatures to peak between 21 and 23 degrees today but up to 24.8 degrees so temperature is on our side when it comes to convection. Going to enjoy watching the radar over the next couple of hours .

also wow at the Swindon/Oxford cell, lots of sferics and torrential rain coming out of that, appears to be growing still too.

Heading in the direction of Milton Keynes, if it can hold it together..

[Hughsey]

Heading in the direction of Milton Keynes, if it can hold it together..

True yeah, not sure how it will keep going but Im pretty sure it will hit MK, heading for my location, but surely it wont last the 60 miles or so to me.

I'm just hoping some convection kicks off in our region soonish.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Hughsey

[Jayces]

Looks like it's starting over south London too!

Sitting here in the office in Croydon and it's rumbling thunder every few minutes.