South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - Part 3

[Anthonyb]

So muggy out there this evening, it seems that the torrential storm earlier did nothing to freshen the air.

I notice Beeb TV forecast are going for temps of up to 20c for tomorrow now, yesterday they were showing at 18c.

[Hughsey]

As expected, very heavy rain has been coming down for the last 10 minutes or so, no thunder or lightning though.

[Methuselah]

There's been some lightning around here, over the past hour...

[Guest archiesmummy]

Just seen pictures of flooding in Epping, 2 houses apparently flooded, one worse than the other, is about 4-5miles from here, just goes to show how localised these sort of storms can be...feel bad for enjoying what we had now...unreal.

Edited May 30, 2012 by archiesmummy

[Gowon]

hi tom

was at work in croydon and have not seen such an intense downpour

fairly big hailstones as well

like you, never saw the lightning but heard quite a bit of thunder,

i would be interested in the stats from that storm as well

john

Five minutes before that storm i was outside watering the plants thinking there would be no rain.

That storm was intense for sure and it was so sudden, it was like a river at my front door. I heard some parts of lower addiscombe was flooded.

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

looks like more rain on the way

sunday in the se may stay dry with showers late in the day

monday looks very wet

tuesday will have showers but not too bad

after 6 however

after that looks like the atlantic takes over for a while

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

4th COLD

5th average to cold

gfs ensembles

average temps and wet comes to mind

[Anthonyb]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

looks like more rain on the way

sunday in the se may stay dry with showers late in the day

monday looks very wet

tuesday will have showers but not too bad

after 6 however

after that looks like the atlantic takes over for a while

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

4th COLD

5th average to cold

gfs ensembles

average temps and wet comes to mind

We have Friday/ Saturday and Sunday dry weather to look forward too first, Monday does look wet but at the moment Tuesday drys up again so all in all not a bad holiday weekend at all. We've had a lot worse.

1 really wet day out of 5 is pretty good going

Edited May 31, 2012 by Anthonyb

[Coast]

I've really enjoyed the warm spell and the sun has shone for 11 days without rain now. If we could just get at least some of the BH weekend to stay dry enough for a barbie and a beer, I'll be chuffed with May into June 2012!!!

Cheers you South-Easterners!!!!

[Guest archiesmummy]

I've really enjoyed the warm spell and the sun has shone for 11 days without rain now. If we could just get at least some of the BH weekend to stay dry enough for a barbie and a beer, I'll be chuffed with May into June 2012!!!

Cheers you South-Easterners!!!!

Saturday looking best day for here anyway, and Saturday is best day for bbq in my opinion! Enjoy!

[Anthonyb]

Saturday looking best day for here anyway, and Saturday is best day for bbq in my opinion! Enjoy!

Agree, Saturday should feel quite nice. Sunday chance of showers late in day but by no means a wash out.

[Suburban Streamer]

We have Friday/ Saturday and Sunday dry weather to look forward too first

i really wouldnt be so sure about that...unfortunately. Sunday looking increasingly like a washout and perhaps lingering into monday....i very much hope not. There is still a lot of uncertainty about this weekend, even at this short range, because its a complicated setup.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Anthonyb]

i really wouldnt be so sure about that...unfortunately. Sunday looking increasingly like a washout and perhaps lingering into monday....i very much hope not. There is still a lot of uncertainty about this weekend, even at this short range, because its a complicated setup.

I really hope not, I have my partners family over visiting from Portugal tomorrow. Every time they come it rains and I mean it rains. 5 years in a row they have visited and had to endure washout conditions.

And what's even worse if we arranged it a week earlier we would have been just as hot as there home country :-(

Always the way.

If it does rain heavily, Once again it looks like me and my girlfriend are going to have to convince them "it's not always like this you know" lol

[Steve C]

You could tell, yesterday, that the BBC forecasters weren't really sure about the weekend, even when they said that Saturday and Sunday would both be dry, albeit cooler.

If poor weather arrives, it's a pity that it corresponds with the Bank Holiday, but to me early June often seems cool and unsettled, so I'm not surprised - my brother's birthday is on the 7th so I notice this period. As long as we haven't just had our best part of the Summer, I'm personally fairly relaxed about it, although I do feel for businesses who are putting a lot of work into this holiday period.

I suppose it helps that I'm off to Barbados next Friday.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Speed67

[Anthonyb]

You could tell, yesterday, that the BBC forecasters weren't really sure about the weekend, even when they said that Saturday and Sunday would both be dry, albeit cooler.

If poor weather arrives, it's a pity that it corresponds with the Bank Holiday, but to me early June often seems cool and unsettled, so I'm not surprised - my brother's birthday is on the 7th so I notice this period. As long as we haven't just had our best part of the Summer, I'm personally fairly relaxed about it, although I do feel for businesses who are putting a lot of work into this holiday period.

I suppose it helps that I'm off to Barbados next Friday.

Oh Lurrrvley. Yes Im very lucky this year to have two holidays. A Greek island in July and in November I get married in the Maldives.

So at least I will have therapy if we do have a poor summer...

[Anthonyb]

Yep, Sunday now looks to be a write off.

Typical, watch all the jubilee party's get ruined. Such a shame

And to add insult to injury temps will only reach 11c on Sunday across our region. Pathetic for the beginning of June by anyones standards.

It's the usual doom and gloom over on the MOD thread. The usual cat fights between the unsettled lovers and the warm dry lovers.

I tend not to take to much notice over on the MoD thread this time of year as there is a lot of bias towards cold wet weather, then the heat of the past 10 days came along. I imagine a few of them had to eat a bit of humble. But once again the same members dismissing any chance of warmth the rest of June. Quite ridiculous really.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Anthonyb

[Steve C]

Yep, Sunday now looks to be a write off.

Typical, watch all the jubilee party's get ruined. Such a shame

And to add insult to injury temps will only reach 11c on Sunday across our region. Pathetic for the beginning of June by anyones standards.

It's the usual doom and gloom over on the MOD thread. The usual cat fights between the unsettled lovers and the warm dry lovers.

I tend not to take to much notice over on the MoD thread this time of year as there is a lot of bias towards cold wet weather, then the heat of the past 10 days came along. I imagine a few of them had to eat a bit of humble. But once again the same members dismissing any chance of warmth the rest of June. Quite ridiculous really.

I do read the threads there, with interest, but definitely don't take the long term forecasts too much to heart. I read a post talking about unsettled weather until (I think) the 22nd July. Put it this way, I'd be very surprised if that happened.

Not Model Thread related, but I do remember a BBC forecaster saying that the pattern for the rest of May was going to be a continuation of the cool damp start, only a very few days before the settled spell kicked in.

[Anthonyb]

I do read the threads there, with interest, but definitely don't take the long term forecasts too much to heart. I read a post talking about unsettled weather until (I think) the 22nd July. Put it this way, I'd be very surprised if that happened.

Not Model Thread related, but I do remember a BBC forecaster saying that the pattern for the rest of May was going to be a continuation of the cool damp start, only a very few days before the settled spell kicked in.

Yes, we haven't even started June yet and some members seem to think they hold the knowledge and predictions to inform us that the whole of June will be unsettled... Come on.. I mean really.

It's funny, the same members only 3 days before the settled spell were saying that the rest of May will be a wash out with floods.

I'm sure some of those ridiculous prediction posts are just written for entertainment purposes, I really do.

[Steve C]

I do think that some of the posters there are very very good though.

I just don't worry too much about long term predictions, when people imply they are set in stone.

[Suburban Streamer]

Personally I have found the long range forecasts to be the source of a huge learning curve.

I'm not talking about posters who make one line predictions based on not very much, but I mean people who make their predictions and explain exactly why and how they have done so. These forecasters are the first to say their forecasts are not set in stone and that its not an exact science.

But they put a lot of hard work into it and I have definitely benefitted from both the success and failures of these forecasts.

The strat thread in winter has been fascinating to follow over the past few years.

I just wish I had the brain capacity to absorb even 10% of it!

As for the weekend I'm really hoping the models continue to change and the rain doesn't come!

[Steve C]

Agreed SS. I need to spend time myself looking at the whys and wherefores of people's theories and track what happens. This will take time, as you say. I joined this site during a cold spell a couple of years back - actually the reason I found this site was because I researched Michael Fish on Wikipedia and found he was forecasting here! I read various posts and made a few myself, but then disappeared after a couple of weeks, for a couple of years. I'm here for the long term now.

I've looked at the GFS rainfall model and it currently implies the rain will sit over here for a couple of days! If the rain happens ( and I think it will unfortunately ) I hope that the front doesn't stall here and give two days of rubbish weather. I really would feel sorry for some local businesses who've done loads of work for this bank holiday.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Speed67

[Coast]

Funny old day really. Quite bright (enough to warrant sunglasses outside) but breezy and not that warm. Still 11th day without rain and I bet we have some on the BH weekend!

[Anthonyb]

Personally I have found the long range forecasts to be the source of a huge learning curve.

I'm not talking about posters who make one line predictions based on not very much, but I mean people who make their predictions and explain exactly why and how they have done so. These forecasters are the first to say their forecasts are not set in stone and that its not an exact science.

But they put a lot of hard work into it and I have definitely benefitted from both the success and failures of these forecasts.

The strat thread in winter has been fascinating to follow over the past few years.

I just wish I had the brain capacity to absorb even 10% of it!

As for the weekend I'm really hoping the models continue to change and the rain doesn't come!

Absolutely, some of the members are outstanding in their work and give detailed explanations on their predictions, but it's these members that give post upon post of

" rain for the next 30 days"

"summer write off"

"unsettled for the next 3/4 weeks"

"cold"

Anyway only Great britains weather can spoil the nations most celebrated party.

Such a shame for everyone involved, just have to make the best of it.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Anthonyb

[jamesay]

we are used to crap weather in the uk - lets just get on with it and celebrate all the more!

no such thing as bad weather - only the wrong clothing.

it will be a wonderful weekend, whatever the weather. I'm determined nothing will ruin it for me.

Edited May 31, 2012 by jamesay

[Methuselah]

Even I (as a republican) will be out preparing flower-beds and hanging baskets in preparation for the festivities, and generally helping folks enjoy things...The weather won't stop me.

That said, things do appear to a tad dreich!

[Steve C]

I do find that saying about the wrong clothing amusing (I'm not being sarcastic, as I've heard it before). For instance if you were hit by a tornado, or lightning etc.