Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Slowpoke]

High to the NE, with Easterly winds from the continent, which will be coincidently very warm by the end of next weekend thanks to the disgusting low over us that throws up hot air from the Mediterranean on Fri/Sat. BANK!

[J10]

......

means the likelihood of much warmer conditions it is often met with a certain sadness as the prospect of lengthy dry sunny weather becomes much less likely..

Sorry to paraphrase, but saves taking up half the screen

Still not certain on the exact track of LP for late next week, and precise details will be effected by this track, but does like being rainy for most of us. so well done to ECM for spotting this trend, hopefully rainfall totals will not be that bad,

As you say recent summers have started decently and faded (a lot) but hopefully this one will now get into gear and for the first time in a number of years give a better 2nd half of summer. still like to see that High Presure forecasts in FI into the more realistic timeframe.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS has toned up tomorrow's rain over the south somewhat- it does indeed look likely that some areas will get a large dumping of rain, most likely the Midlands. It's amazing how often a clear cut looking sunshine-and-showers setup gives way to a frontal complication at very short notice. After that, a return to sunshine and showers with the heaviest and most frequent showers towards the west, and temperatures recovering to values of 15-18C for many (still a little below the long-term average though). The exceptions will be the north and east of Scotland and parts of north-east England, which will maintain mostly dry but rather cool and cloudy weather (maxes of 12-15C) judging by the latest outputs.

At present there is some disagreement over the movement of the southerly tracking low. GFS and ECMWF have it powering north-eastwards giving a dull wet day on Friday and then a bright showery one on Saturday with possible thunder, and Sunday also remains showery. The "forecasters' headache" situation is maintained though as the UKMO takes the low over southern areas- this would result in a slice of the country seeing heavy persistent rain through the weekend (most likely the Midlands and northern England) with areas to the south brighter and warmer with thundery showers, and areas to the north dry and cool with sunshine in the west and cloud in the east.

The jet stream looks likely to slow down towards midmonth which may set up a warmer sunnier spell like I originally envisaged in the N-W monthly forecast, but it is unclear whether we will end up in a slack "no-man's land" or influenced by an area of high pressure. In the latter case the positioning of the high is strongly up in the air- the GFS 12Z FI for instance has the high to the NW which would bring a lot of stratus into central and eastern areas from the North Sea, but the ECMWF scenario, with high pressure centred to the NE, would probably lead to a spell of warm dry sunny weather and the complication at T+240 looks implausible. At present I doubt that the high will end up to the NW as the GFS shows, as there doesn't seem to be much support from the teleconnections or other model outputs.

[Summer Sun]

Tonights ensembles show things improving as we move towards the end of the month with rain also easing

[Geordiesnow]

Well the good news is that the Arctic Dipole looks like it will subside so this could more than likely mean we won't have winds stretching right from the Arctic to our shores but obviously it does not gurantee warmer weather.

Having said that, if we lose the Arctic Dipole we may lost heights over Greenland, the PV is our friend generally in summer and in recent years, height rises has knocked the PV for 6 and Atlantic weather systems tend to head stright into our shores, who knows, a warmer 2nd half of June is likely but will it be settled?

So in general, some glimmers of light in the output but looks like rain will never be too far away.

[bluearmy]

ecm ens mean heading the right way although i suspect a fairly wide spread of solutions at day 10 with little clustering visible. the mean trough is mid atlantic by this point.

[Milhouse]

Low pressure pulling back into the Atlantic for days 9 and 10. Encouraging signs for a warm last 3rd of the month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Agreed, quite a significant development on the ECMWF ensembles, supporting the operational run in building heights to the east of the British Isles (suggesting perhaps another shot at the Atlantic trough/Euro high setup which failed to materialise in early June). With it being out at days 9-10 though of course we'll need to see more support for it over the next few days to be able to have much confidence over it. I remember that the Junes of 1998, 2000 and 2005 all had a heatwave in the third week as high pressure built to our east and sucked warm air up from the south, so such an evolution does have significant precedents at this time of the year.

Edited June 10, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[Cloud 10]

The ECM FI looks like a decent match for the MJO composite for phase 1 in June.

Can't we just skip the next 10 days?

Edited June 10, 2012 by Cloud 10

[95 Degrees]

The GFS 18z is showing possible warm/very warm air pushing up from the south and allows High Pressure to have time to shine over Western Europe, it may be in Early FI, but still something to look at, before then we have a Low Pressure system moving in on Saturday into from the south-west, we'll see tomorrow morning to see if ECM agrees with the GFS.

[Summer Sun]

GFS could be over doing the low at the end of the week

UKMO's take on it

ECM is similar to UKMO

Then there's GFS

[Methuselah]

I do wish that the GFS would stop playing the hokey cokey with that depression...Are we still really any the wiser as to what it's going to do?

[Summer Sun]

I do wish that the GFS would stop playing the hokey cokey with that depression...Are we still really any the wiser as to what it's going to do?

It must be a nighmare for the met office and the beeb's weather presenters it could be that even by Thursday there will still be some uncertainty for its exact track

[Bobby]

I do wish that the GFS would stop playing the hokey cokey with that depression...Are we still really any the wiser as to what it's going to do?

Give most of us a good soaking, doesn't look like that can be avoided now.

[OldMetMan]

I do wish that the GFS would stop playing the hokey cokey with that depression...Are we still really any the wiser as to what it's going to do?

Looking at the upper air pattern today, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet it WILL deepen significantly. Combination of a broad upper trough and the jet a long way south, it would seem likely to engage both and develop. Not much warm air over the near continent at present so I guess the thunder risk will not be significant but a lot of rain nevertheless.

The longer term GFS is showing no signs of the pattern shifting any time soon, although it seems to be hinting that we may see a deeper upper trough developing in the W Atlantic which may finally allow heights to rise east of it, with associated HP near or over the UK. Seems to have been the pattern for so long now - upper low, upper high interchanging.

Meanwhile the jet so far south suggests it may be quite a while before summer comes back.

[Methuselah]

Is there any sign, from the models, that the weekend low will have any less (persistent) cloud in its circulation than the last one did?

[OldMetMan]

Is there any sign, from the models, that the weekend low will have any less (persistent) cloud in its circulation than the last one did?

Out to T144, the GFS is keeping the jet slap bang over the UK, so, assuming there IS a significant deepening, then even after the main frontal zone has moved through ( and which will quite likely get stuck somewhere over N England/S Scotland) , there seem likely to be cold-frontal waves running up from the SW and S, so it's showers or longer spells of rain - and a lot of cloud. If the low tracks further to the W then there would be a risk of hotter air from France getting caught up in the circulation - a very bad combination as we saw in 2007 - but, to answer you question, notwithstanding the possibilities of frontal waves, the best places for less persistent cloud would be the eastern and perhaps southern coastal fringes.

I think the 12Z GFS will give us a more accurate picture.

[Robbie Garrett]

Wow... round 3?

[Bobby]

Looks like more torrents of rain coming, 2-3 inches more forecast in places before the weekend.

GFS 12z

A nasty little thing although winds shouldn't be as strong as the last system but still could cause some damage.

The last system for comparison.

Very similar track but a bit weaker.

Edited June 11, 2012 by Barb-

[Snowy Easterly]

yet again any high pressure remains in FI, its funny how we desperately long for hot sunny weather that only lasts about 3 or 4 days anyway before normal service resumes again, eg cool and cloudy dross

UKMO looks rubbish and has a northerly airflow yet again at T144

[SP1986]

The patterns suggest a slightly below average outlook temperature wise (daytime temperatures), I cant say with night time temperatures, because the GFS is clearly too low with it's minimum predictions at night. Lots of rain to come however it would seem as the low bears down on us from the west, from then it pretty much looks like staying put as it comes up against the European High it has nowhere to go really, so it stays in the area of British Isles. Certainly the outlook would suggest very little change.. as ever high pressure and warmer temperature will stay out in FI consistently, there is a low chance of that actually materialising at the moment it would appear.

So cool, mixed, but fairly wet seems to what we can glean from the outputs so far, perhaps for the remainder of June at least.

*ps I said I wouldn't look at the models until the pattern changed... I thought the pattern was showing signs of changing yesterday but it seems to have reverted back to it's original today!

[Snowy Easterly]

i bet these just below average temperatures downgrade as we get closer to the time, i remember a few days ago the GFS predicting temps of 16c 17 c for today and tomorrow, yet today it has been 10c and tomorrow it will be 13c in the south and east

how are any crops going to grow in this

Edited June 11, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Alex]

What awful Synoptics, we have been so unlucky since 2006 - repeat story - rubbish. Sorry but I'm throughly annoyed this isnt even average weather!

[ohno]

What happend to the weather getting better for the second half of June? wishful thinking?.

Edited June 11, 2012 by ohno

[Summer Sun]

ECM's take on the low for the end of the week

Towards the end of ECM's run

Edited June 11, 2012 by Gavin D