Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Eskimo]

Would recommend looking at the model output thread. Most models show 10 - 12 days of average weather, with the inclusion of a further two weeks after showing no cold fronts. This would rule out November, but obviously cannot comment on further months, so in some respects i can agree with ths comment.

This supposed average weather can change though, tomorrow the outlook could switch back to cold, it's why model watching can be fun...but stressful at the same time!

[johnholmes]

That's probably because there hasn't been a year where all the various factors that we look at to make a prediction about a season were exactly the same..at every stage of the year.

Things might look similar at one specific moment in time, but the next week or the next month, the two will fall out of phase with each other, my point is not to encourage or put forward an argument that one can pattern match one year to another...more to put forward the argument to say that ''pattern matching'' doesn't work .PERIOD...is wrong and misleading.

I see no evidence to the contrary either to say that pattern matching one month compared to another similar month in years gone by doesn't work ...if that were the case why would this forum suddenly erupt if the charts were showing a bitterly Easterly with a -10 dam line covering the country ....why..?? ...because we know from YEARS GONE BY that it would likely lead to a shed load of snow and lot's of snow men :-)

Like I said initially it depends what you mean by pattern matching.

That to me is not pattern matching but best we agree to disagree for now and let the thread move on.

[EML Network]

Ok my final post about ''Pattern Matching'' and then I shall go quietly and hide in a corner...with a ''D'' on my hat ;-)

We all like to see plenty of Snowfall over Siberia, Russia, Scandinavia late in autumn and early in winter...why ??? because we know that it can aid height's building over the continent, that CAN lead to an Easterly, or North Easterly = pattern matching.

We all like to see a SSW event take place as early into winter as possible...why...because we know a SSW event CAN lead to a cold outbreak = pattern matching

we would like to see solar activity quiet with low sunspot activity...why ??? because there IS evidence to suggest this CAN lead to a cold winter in the UK = pattern matching

we would like to see HLB in the winter months...why ?? ..because it CAN lead to a colder winter in the UK = Pattern Matching

we would like to see a tripole band of SST in the Mid / north Altantic during the winter months..why ???..because evidence suggest this can be the pre curser to a - NAO = pattern matching

these to name but a few.

sorry to labor the point...but can you see what I am saying here ??

Maybe it's me using the wrong word..I just don't know what other word to describe the above ?/..lolol

anyway yes best we agree to disagree :-)..for what it's worth...sorry if I ruffled any feathers with my original post

Edited November 5, 2012 by EML Network

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets hope we get some stonking runs tommorow and that the siberian express has not been derailed for good.

Edited November 5, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Barry12]

Would recommend looking at the model output thread. Most models show 10 - 12 days of average weather, with the inclusion of a further two weeks after showing no cold fronts. This would rule out November, but obviously cannot comment on further months, so in some respects i can agree with ths comment.

no no no no no no...

the models change daily!

Edited November 5, 2012 by Barry95

[Rocheydub]

Oh dear...

[John Badrick]

EXACTLY!!!!!! Looking 7 days out is not reliable and can change from run to run

[NorthernRab]

This would rule out November, but obviously cannot comment on further months.

It is genuinely impossible to "rule out" an entire month in meteorology.

Edited November 5, 2012 by NorthernRab

[Eskimo]

Yup November 5th, few models saying zonal train on just a couple of runs, must mean one thing...November is off guys, come back in December!

[feb1991blizzard]

I was just thinking that the 18z looked better, SM thinks so over on the model thread, the heights are no further West but look to have better shape to me.

12z

Edited November 5, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Yup November 5th, few models saying zonal train on just a couple of runs, must mean one thing...November is off guys, come back in December!

This time last year i made a statement about this time that if i saw a single flake of snow in my location in November i would walk down the High Street stark naked to celebrate and got slaughtered on here but i genuinely thought that was not an over the top statement and was correct in the end, whilst i am dubious about another 2010 scale end Nov, i would say its odds on that i see some sort of snow event in November, not nailed by any means but looking infinately more likely than this time last year.

[feb1991blizzard]

18z definately better than 12 IMO, same old same old in relation to location of trough to our west but at least the higher heights are smashing right into the pole this time.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That's probably because there hasn't been a year where all the various factors that we look at to make a prediction about a season were exactly the same..at every stage of the year.

Or that until we actually find the driver, the others aren't of significant consequence but react to the driver. Eg, Not all east QBO bring the same, why? Not all Strong El Nino/La nina brign the same, why? Because it clearly needs other ingredients. I think if you look at 'anomalies' which C and GP etc post, generally that is pattern matching? I see where you are coming from, but it only really will work if the driver is found and it is in same phase as past phases. BFTP

[snowmore]

John, thank you for the welcoming :-)

[feb1991blizzard]

Far too much panicking going on far too early in my opinion, if it as mid winter and we had not had a look in yet then yes, i am the worlds worst for it come mid - end jan because then you always think that the next chance (of NLB) could be the last, i know this sounds stupid given the weather that this chart would produce,

but i wont be overly concerned if we get this in early dec, as long as that block stays there ready and waiting to pounce, we are bound to tap in to it at some stage, aided maybe by an SSW.

Edited November 5, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Please elaborate. How can you conclude it "looks" normal when it hasn't even begun? We have difficulty knowing what'll happen in the next fortnight, never mind the winter.

Although I presume you are reading some of the more pessimistic posts on here. These are only for the next few weeks, not the whole winter.

the weather hear looks very similar to last year, the temperature is starting to go mild and is staying in double figure for the most of this month. It is looking abit boring for the start of winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

the weather hear looks very similar to last year, the temperature is starting to go mild and is staying in double figure for the most of this month. It is looking abit boring for the start of winter.

Keep the faith!! at least until we are in winter.

[Eskimo]

the weather hear looks very similar to last year, the temperature is starting to go mild and is staying in double figure for the most of this month. It is looking abit boring for the start of winter.

How do you know this? Are you basing this on a few runs? Models flip flop more than Ghandi so I shouldn't worry!

[cheeky_monkey]

the weather hear looks very similar to last year, the temperature is starting to go mild and is staying in double figure for the most of this month. It is looking abit boring for the start of winter.

has winter started or did i miss something?

[Rocheydub]

the weather hear

I've heard of listening to the weather signals....

WIth all respect to everyone here:

We are not even close to winter in model watching terms. Let's not worry. When we reach the 22nd November, then we can start to reach the terms of model relative reliability!

[Snowy Easterlies]

we've had a lot of northern blocking for the past 6 months, i hope we don't see a strong PV and a northerly tracking jet for the next 6 months now, they do say mother nature balances her self out

Edited November 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

we've had a lot of northern blocking for the past 6 months, i hope we don't see a strong PV and a northerly tracking jet for the next 6 months now, they do say mother nature balances her self out

I hope not too, cannot rule it out but its not favourite and no point worrying yet, lets just see how it develops first.

[Wales123098]

I find it shocking how some are already writting off the winter. It's still early November and already there has been snow as far south as the west country! I live in Wales and we've had wintry weather. Snow, hail, sleet, rain you name it. Also the tempertures here by night in the rural areas such as mine have been below freezing on many occasions over the last 2 weeks. In fact it's -1.6c right now. It NOVEMBER 5TH! Chill out people. The auturm period has been decently cold so far. Put it this way the weather atm is far colder than this time last year.

[Snowy Easterlies]

people are not writing off winter, they just worry when they see the charts showing a zonal outlook as it can be hard to shift, lets be honest we are overdue a mild zonal spell of weather,

some of us had a decent cold spell last feb, but most classed it as a bad winter because it was mild up till then, so i would like snow and cold to be spread out evenly over winter, yes i know its not winter yet, and yes it is too early to be panicking but if we are still in this situation come end of november then we should start to worry as december could be a write off if the models continue to show zonal crap

i hope GP is right, if he thinks end of nov could get interesting, then i wouldn't care less if most of november was very mild

its all good being all positive and churning out cliches but we can only go on the current state of the weather, no amount of hope casting will change that, remember last year people kept saying "its only november don't panic" then look what happened, nothing decent till feb, i hope history don't repeat it self, however expectations have gone through the roof because of recent years, a lot of winters that i can remember, snow didn't come till February here, and i suspect 5 years ago nobody would be worrying about winter in early november

Edited November 6, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Eskimo]

Remember guys, the weather doesn't play in sequence, because we haven't seen a particular whether pattern doesn't mean it will have to turn up at some point.