North of England Regional Discussion

[itsnowjoke]

Should be some snow in the heavier showers. If this comes off I should think it'll be more of a wintry mix. It'll be the east which gets all of the fun and games, as usual really.

yes sometimes it makes it here from the East :-)

[itsnowjoke]

Just a few days ago i had 40% chance of snow for my area but thats gone its now Monday that will probably change too

[Thundery wintry showers]

The main issue that we have is that when the colder air arrives the winds are projected to back northerly, and pretty much down the spine of the country, which will help to restrict sleet and snow showers to coastal fringes unless we get any significant trough activity. Troughs are not out of the question though, as it will be a cyclonic/northerly regime.

I think many of us are in with a shot at frontal snow on Monday, especially to the east of the Pennines- perhaps reminiscent of the 4th December 2008.

[itsnowjoke]

Brrr its gone quite cold here now.

[itsnowjoke]

Brrr its gone quite cold here now 4c.

[wiganlad123]

First post even though I've been reading for a while, think we will all see a little flurry over the weekend at some point.

[feb1991blizzard]

Saame for Leeds..

Forecast for suburbs is colder

The map is showing quite a decent area of wintry PPN, looks reasonably solid albeit light. Run the sequence through from 9am on saturday onwards.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=map

[Aaron]

The main issue that we have is that when the colder air arrives the winds are projected to back northerly, and pretty much down the spine of the country, which will help to restrict sleet and snow showers to coastal fringes unless we get any significant trough activity. Troughs are not out of the question though, as it will be a cyclonic/northerly regime.

I think many of us are in with a shot at frontal snow on Monday, especially to the east of the Pennines- perhaps reminiscent of the 4th December 2008.

Which was a great snowfall here, so would take a repeat for sure.

[Backtrack]

The main issue that we have is that when the colder air arrives the winds are projected to back northerly, and pretty much down the spine of the country, which will help to restrict sleet and snow showers to coastal fringes unless we get any significant trough activity. Troughs are not out of the question though, as it will be a cyclonic/northerly regime.

I think many of us are in with a shot at frontal snow on Monday, especially to the east of the Pennines- perhaps reminiscent of the 4th December 2008.

The GFS was hinting at some trough activity in the Irish Sea just off the coast of North Wales on Saturday. We shall see, but I guess troughs and disturbances are hard to forecast.

[summer blizzard]

Yet another run which looks very interesting north of the Midlands on Monday, we have an incoming front with surface SE winds (indicating undercutting) and a tight thermal gradient with the -5C isotherm present ahead of an occluding front which develops a wave on it.

If this backs a little west then those of us in the north east should be getting very excited.

[Andy_]

Cold Weather alert now in place from Met Office,

60% North East England

60% North West England

60% Yorkshire and Humber

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness in one or more regions of England

Issued at: Tuesday 27 November 2012 at 08:44

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/ There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather between 0600 on Friday and 0600 on Saturday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

A cold northerly airflow will become established across the UK this week. Later this week as the wind becomes light which will allow sharp overnight frosts to occur, and lead to lower mean temperatures. Northern and some western areas of the UK will become the coldest, and there will be an increased likelihood of ice on surfaces, especially where surfaces remain wet from standing water or run-off. Freezing fog remains likely.

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

Edited November 27, 2012 by Andy163

[summer blizzard]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/bd11

GFS calls it for me. Monday 12pm, heavy snow (some changes obviously before then).

[Aaron]

Same link shows heavy snowfall over my postal code too. temps down to -5C too.

[AutumnMists]

Well, the BBC/met Office do seem to also dive in on the cold, snow for me Saturday, a week today and a week on Thursday ... Doubt it will be right considering the milder 'blip' in prospect for early next week.

Very exciting times ahead for us in the North, though ... especially this weekend ... I'm fairly confident that, on average, most places won't get above 2'C in the day if that.

Edited November 27, 2012 by hedgehog4

[Andy_]

UKMO 96hr looking decent for chance of snow showers on Saturday

As is the ECM 96hr and 120hr on Saturday and Sunday

Uppers look sufficient at sub -6 at 850Hpa, marginal yes. Looking cold by any means

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the UKMO and ECMWF are making rather more of that North Sea trough which would presumably promote showery activity further inland and perhaps the odd more organised belt of precipitation. The UKMO continues to look the most potentially snowy of the three IMHO, but even the GFS is now suggesting wintry precipitation getting inland for a time on Saturday.

[summer blizzard]

ECWMF backs the GFS for next Monday, anybody from the triple point north will likely see snow...

[P-M]

It's just torrential hail shower after torrential hail shower here tonight..some really potent downpours it's horrible out there tonight! :-(

[AutumnMists]

In terms of the shorter range ... possibility of a frost tonight although for most temperatures will settle just above the freezing level for most, perhaps. ... blue skies for me tomorrow and Thursday (with the odd clouds tomorrow) ... coupled with ever lasting morning frosts and crisp cold afternoons with the ever so ineffective sunshine ... Bliss!

A definite frost on Wednesday night for most, clear spells looking very likely with temperatures for most dead around 0.

Any snow/sleet/rain arriving Friday night (But most probably Saturday early doors) for most ... Although with the overcast forecast for Thursday night for some ... perhaps the odd chance of some flurries on Thursday Night.

Edited November 27, 2012 by hedgehog4

[Cloud 10]

Good to see the north sea convection machine back in action with some pretty beefy

showers around this evening,although this won't help the flooding situation.

Should be less showers around as we go through tomorrow,but with colder upper

air and lower dewpoints,any showers could be quite wintry.

[cheshire snow]

In terms of the shorter range ... possibility of a frost tonight although for most temperatures will settle just above the freezing level for most, perhaps. ... blue skies for me tomorrow and Thursday (with the odd clouds tomorrow) ... coupled with ever lasting morning frosts and crisp cold afternoons with the ever so ineffective sunshine ... Bliss!

A definite frost on Wednesday night for most, clear spells looking very likely with temperatures for most dead around 0.

Any snow/sleet/rain arriving Friday night (But most probably Saturday early doors) for most ... Although with the overcast forecast for Thursday night for some ... perhaps the odd chance of some flurries on Thursday Night.

Agree with you on the above

my eyes at the momemt are on sunday night(FI)on the front coming in if that stalls

someone is going to get a pasting

time will tell, again the models especially the ECM wants to put us in the freezer in FI

intresting times ahead.

C.S

[Continental Climate]

The potential snow later in the week has completely past me by to be honest so caught up have I been in seeking the dream synoptics in the model thread. What are peoples thoughts on the durham area recieving some snow between now and next monday?

[cheshire snow]

The potential snow later in the week has completely past me by to be honest so caught up have I been in seeking the dream synoptics in the model thread. What are peoples thoughts on the durham area recieving some snow between now and next monday?

I would say about 50%

C,S

[feb1991blizzard]

The potential snow later in the week has completely past me by to be honest so caught up have I been in seeking the dream synoptics in the model thread. What are peoples thoughts on the durham area recieving some snow between now and next monday?

Not always the most reliable forecasts these but click on the Saturday icon, also there is the map on the Met Office site which also suggests snow showers for many Northern areas on the weekend, even a longer spell of continuous light snow possible, no serious accumulations i would'nt envisage though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2650628

Edited November 27, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[AutumnMists]

I would say about 50%

C,S

I wouldn't be too sure ... but surely a tad more than that? Temperatures perhaps colder more inland compared to Durham but I think with precipitation confidence fairly high ... I'd go for 70%.

I'm always wrong though