North of England Regional Discussion

[Aaron]

1 mile from the sea in Wirral? I doubt it.

[Terminal Moraine]

What a great model the NMM high resolution is. It predicted around 44 mm for my location in the 24 hours up to this morning and we ended up with 48.8mm, you could hardly ask for better.

The Net weather rainfall radar accumulation facility also deserves a mention. I checked it this morning when I got up and it was indicating around 48mm; almost spot on.

[iand61]

Is the North West of England likely to get any snow from the cold shot in December?

A lot depends on the direction from which the cold ends up coming.

A straight Northerly and your area stands a change of showers due to the wishbone effect but as Arran says, whether they will actually fall as snow is debatable due to your costal location.

An E or NE direction and unless it's a strong flow it probably won't reach much beyond the Pennines if it even gets that far.

TBH I don't hold out much hope IMBY from showers with our best chance being embedded troughs which could well crop up or from an attempted beakdown from the west although these seem to have been non events for many years.

Either way it'll be cold and at least feel a little festive but if it's anything other than a dusting of white, i thing much of our region could be dissapointed, this time around at least.

[4wd]

Rain just about fizzling out now, with about 35mm since yesterday evening. 5.6C and wind getting up.

There was a marked temp drop just after 9am as a front passed over.

[NickyB]

A lot depends on the direction from which the cold ends up coming.

A straight Northerly and your area stands a change of showers due to the wishbone effect but as Arran says, whether they will actually fall as snow is debatable due to your costal location.

An E or NE direction and unless it's a strong flow it probably won't reach much beyond the Pennines if it even gets that far.

TBH I don't hold out much hope IMBY from showers with our best chance being embedded troughs which could well crop up or from an attempted beakdown from the west although these seem to have been non events for many years.

Either way it'll be cold and at least feel a little festive but if it's anything other than a dusting of white, i thing much of our region could be dissapointed, this time around at least.

Many thanks for that :-) We have had inches of snow here 09/10 and during the cold spell around the late 80's. lots of snow along this coast but as you say it all depends on the direction and I suspect the temps play a great part in whether it sticks with all the salt in the air!

Many thanks again for your reply.

[Cold Winter]

Chris Fawkes on BBC News channel just said a Met Office Amber Warning is currently being written for tonight/tomorrow's rain for areas around Durham, Middlesbrough and North Yorkshire.

[Polar Maritime]

Sunny spells but blustery now 4.8c

[sunny scunny]

No sign of the sun here yet, and it feels very cold out and about in the wind

[Cloud 10]

Chris Fawkes on BBC News channel just said a Met Office Amber Warning is currently being written for tonight/tomorrow's rain for areas around Durham, Middlesbrough and North Yorkshire.

Just had a look at the hi-res NAE model and if it is correct then another 2 inches of rain

to come over parts of northern england,especially eastern parts,with the next bout

of rain commencing just after midnight tonight and still going into Tuesday!

Still spitting with rain here now after 16 hours of it.

EDIT.. just to add the amber warning from the met office

Met Office: Yorkshire & Humber: severe weather warnings

Warning is the same as north-east england

Edited November 25, 2012 by Cloud 10

[itsnowjoke]

LOL 80% chance of snow here on Saturday. Precipitation light.

[Liam J]

Well, a much improving picture over Cumbria this afternoon as it becomes much brighter and drier from the west unfortunately it won't last all that long..... Another very chilly day here currently sitting at 5.0c.

turning much colder as we head though the new week, frosty, icy and a risk of snow

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Cant wait until i see snow falling again lol

[Liam J]

Cant wait until i see snow falling again lol

Me too, just trying not to get to excited for the time being as it could still go slightly wrong. Hopefully the models will be showing some agreement over the next few days.

[Aaron]

I haven't seen since since October.

[Liam J]

Not had snow falling since about February time and no snow lying since December 2010.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Liam J

[NickR]

This is not the time to realise my flashing is leaking!

Not much I can do about it now - just have to stuff something absorbent where it's seeping through into the loft and leave the struts to dry out later!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think there is a significant chance of wintry precipitation across the region (except on very high ground) until Wednesday, when the cold airmasses will come down from the N and NE. There is still a lot of uncertainty over how much of an easterly component to the airflow there will be, so there is the possibility of a "wishbone effect" with showers confined to coasts, though the GFS 06Z also shows quite a few troughs which would bring belts of organised sleet and snow to some parts of the region. The UKMO/ECMWF evolution would tend to bring wintry showers further inland off the North Sea.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[sunny scunny]

Lovely blue skies this afternoon now, before the next batch of rain arrives later. I'm really looking forward to the much colder temps later in the week

[Terminal Moraine]

A definite thickening of cloud to the south west now as the next area of rain approaches. NMM is indicating around 25 mm for this area which would probably be enough for some of the local rivers, which so far have largely stayed within their banks, to overtop into the adjacent fields.

A marked orographic effect on the eastern side of the Peak during last night's rainfall with Buxton getting around 27 mm and almost 49 mm here, a reversal of the usual situation when the westerlies dominate.

Depressions approaching from the south giving heavy precipitation in an easterly flow are one of my favourite synoptic situations, even better if the temperature is below 0c.

[Aaron]

I'll bank it..

[Oakwell]

I'll bank it..

Mmm yes it would be nice to see some snow before christmas

[Harsh Climate]

I'll bank it..

Nice charts this afternoon but at the moment don't see anything more than just potential at this early stage.

We can bank on it getting much colder towards the end of the week but it remains to be seen wether or not snow will be confined to the hills.

IMHO I think it will just be a bit too mild for low lying moderate accumulations this weekend (that's if we even get the precipitation ), but if we do have a weather system like that chart a few posts above moving sout with the -5hpa dam line following I would think that snow would begin to fall at lower elevations with perhaps a light covering in places. After that who knows what will happen? We could be looking at a greeny high develop, a battle ground scenario or a return to more zonal weather.... It's too early to say, so at the moment I'm just taking a back seat and looking at the general trend rather than fine details

[Aaron]

Nice to see you back HC!

if the precipitation is heavy enough it will allow for evaporative cooling - look at the snowfall event in the SW early in the month, uppers around -2C.

[NickR]

No snow until Saturday 10:30AM please... after that it can snow all it wants!

[Harsh Climate]

Cheers arron, Yes that's certainly a possibility but I always have doubts with this kind of set-up as the precipitation will have traveled south all the way from scotland and will have probably lost any real potency by the time it reaches us (meaning the precipitation won't be heavy enough for decent evaporative cooling). And time again has the influence of the irish sea made these snow fall events just too marginal for low ground.

What we have on the gfs 12z though is if it all came together perfectly, I'm not buying it just yet