Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[london-snow]

So far so good up to 96+ the sw is dropping south east.

The ECM not backing the UKMO over America at 96hrs, the low is likely to develop similarly to the GFS.

Did we really expect it to though nick?

I did not as we have seen a slow but gradual trek to get back inline with the other big 2..

[lorenzo]

Some impressive GFS ensembles it has to be said, though there are alot of different solutions still on the table it has to be said.

The control run is just a jaw-dropper, never seen such a perfect case of reverse zonality as the 180-192hrs chart, madness!

Dear Santa,

Can we order these charts for Xmas please.

Yours Sincerely.

Everyone.

Wonder if there is a ramp button on that control run, it is consistently one for the coldies just now.

[SnowObsessor90]

One scenario I hope we do not get is one last Feb where we got a slacker easterly flow which failed to proper inroads and broke down before to long resulting in a milder conditions thereafter. That said we're now currently in the first month of the winter not the last so I suppose even then it wouldn't necessarily be the end of the world. Would be really testing on the patience mind.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Anonymous21

[ITSY]

A wry smile on my face

[london-snow]

Up to 120+ and it's all systems go and hopefully all aboard the beasterly express...

Edited December 5, 2012 by london-snow

[nick sussex]

So far so good up to 96+ the sw is dropping south east.

Did we really expect it to though nick?

I did not as we have seen a slow but gradual trek to get back inline with the other big 2..

Well you never want to jinx things but the UKMO was so badly wrong this morning with the pattern in the USA that given the ensembles and operationals from the majority of the other models it was probably not going to verify.

That was my morning obsession which everyone got subjected to in here!

[Cloud 10]

Fairly painless so far on the 12z ECM out to 120 hrs.

steady as she goes...

[bluearmy]

ecm is very, very unlikely to change before day 5. it may throw a spanner in the works T144/T168. the next two frames are the important ones on the run.

[bryan629]

thank you for that SB , great explanation, looking forward to the next few days of runs, and as many have said best wait a few more days before anything is pinned down... great fun watching though and hope no spoilers crop up.

[karlos1983]

ECM Looking good at 120, come on keep it gooing

[london-snow]

Fag and lighter to hand as the next frame is crucial...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

You do realise that if any of these projected 'snowmaggedon' scenarios come off, it'll be highly unlikely that the Mother-in-Law will make it down for Christmas. .....................disaster

[london-snow]

Get in there

Yes !!!

Edited December 5, 2012 by london-snow

[TEITS]

Whilst waiting for the next frame I see the GEFS mean has now dropped to -7C.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20121205/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

That will do nicely.

Really not bothered what happens afterwards, but I shall have a look.

[Continental Climate]

That'll do ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120512/ECH1-144.GIF?05-0!!! That'll do!!!

[Dave Kightley]

Beautiful

[January Snowstorm]

Not as good at 144hrs

We need that high pressure further North for convection to kick off

[ITSY]

Surely this train has 'destination Grande Britannia' written all over it? 144 heights:

[Southender]

Beautiful

Choo choooooo!!

All aboard.

[ITSY]

Not as good at 144hrs

We need that high pressure further North for convection to kick off

Don't worry about that! look at those heights coming into the North Sea. PPN is a secondary issue - get the cold first mate!!

[bluearmy]

uppers -7/-8 and thicknesses approx 520dam into eastern uk at day 6. that'll do off an easterly flow

[snowking]

JMA +108 very similar to the previous 12z:

SK

[Cloud 10]

How close will that patch of Siberian -20's get to us on this run?

[chionomaniac]

Not as good at 144hrs

We need that high pressure further North for convection to kick off

I know it must be good when you say it isn't, JS!

[cooling climate]

Another cracking run coming up from the ECM and potentially snowy as well.

How cold and how snowy we will not know for a few days yet but its

beginning to look increasingly likely that there will be plenty of convective

activity.