Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Jason T]

IMO there is big potential for some disruptive weather over the coming week or so for our patch. Firstly there is a high chance of freezing fog forming late tonight with all the travelling nightmares that will likely cause. Fast Forward to Thursday and as Ian highlighted there is the chance of at least a little snow. Then there's Friday with the risk of 50mph gales and very heavy troublesome rainfall.

Who says the weather is boring here in the West Country. We may have lost a bone chilling Easterly but the alternative is hardly conducive to a borefest...that's why I love the weather.

Indeed Gibby, Very worrying.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Jason T

[fergieweather]

Get in touch with "snow business" they are a company based in Stroud that provides most of the snow scenes for Hollywood blockbusters. I have often wondered whether I should go and ask for a job there, driven down to take a look (with the snow machine going at the entrance even in july!!) but never gone in.

They are simply AMAZING. Filmed at their place for a whole afternoon when we shot 'Wild Weather' documentary a few years ago. They have an eye-popping set-up there.

Oh - and on same lines - - Our next 30-min West Weather special will be transmitted on Sunday 30 Dec at 5.30pm, BBC ONE in the west - and simulcast nationally on BBC ONE HD channel. We take a retrospective look at this region's weather extremes in 2012, plus include a central explainer segment on the UK-wide synoptics through Spring-Summer-Autum 2012 with my colleague Nick Miller.

[Mark Parsons]

Interesting because I'm about 120m high in Stroud and it's only 0.4c here and falling slowly.

Lowland cools quicker than higher ground on these frosty nights away from the coast and I think also that as the ground cools any warmth that rises up can warm up land higher up temporarily.

[fergieweather]

Interesting because I'm about 120m high in Stroud and it's only 0.4c here and falling slowly.

It will be interesting to see variation in minima tonight - these will tend to reach a point where further drop is arrested in areas where ground is still wet from recent rainfall events (by in-ground freezing) - so anticipate lowest values where ground is driest (e.g., parts of Wilts perhaps?). Fog point still looking between -2 to -4C. New models have equally bullish signal for freezing fog formation starting even as early as 1300-1500 tomorrow afternoon and I wouldn't be surprised if we're already seeing some problematic areas of this by tomorrow evening rush-hour.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It will be interesting to see variation in minima tonight - these will tend to reach a point where further drop is arrested in areas where ground is still wet from recent rainfall events (by in-ground freezing) - so anticipate lowest values where ground is driest (e.g., parts of Wilts perhaps?). Fog point still looking between -2 to -4C. New models have equally bullish signal for freezing fog formation starting even as early as 1300-1500 tomorrow afternoon and I wouldn't be surprised if we're already seeing some problematic areas of this by tomorrow evening rush-hour.

So by the sound of things Ian its tomorrow really rather than tonight ?lets hope we get snow grains falling like 2010 it was so heavy it actually looked like moderate snow and the flakes were a nice size in Cheltenham it really was quite amazing , small pocket areas in Cheltenham had nearly an inch of snow but 0.2 miles down the road had clear skies and frost!

Oh and I would just like to thank you for coming back to us Ian its a much better place with you hear .

Good to hear off you

[fergieweather]

So by the sound of things Ian its tomorrow really rather than tonight ?lets hope we get snow grains falling like 2010 it was so heavy it actually looked like moderate snow and the flakes were a nice size in Cheltenham it really was quite amazing , small pocket areas in Cheltenham had nearly an inch of snow but 0.2 miles down the road had clear skies and frost!

Oh and I would just like to thank you for coming back to us Ian its a much better place with you hear .

Good to hear off you

Thanks - actually, interesting thought struck me re snow grains and whether we'll see some anthropogenic generation of this from hot outflow off power stations and the like into areas of freezing fog.... hmmmm

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Thanks - actually, interesting thought struck me re snow grains and whether we'll see some anthropogenic generation of this from hot outflow off power stations and the like into areas of freezing fog.... hmmmm

Hmmm all very fascinating stuff there . . .il get my sledge out then after all !! Hears hoping for a big dumping of snow thurs !

[fergieweather]

Not our patch... but freezing rain now being reported from showers over in Lakenheath.....be interesting to see how UKMO cover that with any warnings tonight for roads tomorrow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Not our patch... but freezing rain now being reported from showers over in Lakenheath.....be interesting to see how UKMO cover that with any warnings tonight for roads tomorrow.

Hi Ian, is there any chance at all of a dusting of snow early hours thursday in Cardiff? i heard there's a chance of snow earlier but unsure of what places were mentioned. Cheers.

[slinky1989]

Thanks - actually, interesting thought struck me re snow grains and whether we'll see some anthropogenic generation of this from hot outflow off power stations and the like into areas of freezing fog.... hmmmm

I remember when we had freezing fog in Bath in 2009 and seeing such heavy snow grain showers coming from factories in Bristol and Avonmouth. Really really surreal stuff.

[Nights King]

Temperature seems fairly stationary at -3.1c at the moment here. looks all frosty and white on the roads up here and you can see your tracks in it from the car.

Lets hope the NAE can give us all something to smile about tommorrow.

[Joneseye]

Certainly a bit warmer over in Berks with local station hovering above freezing at 0.3C. Plenty of frost forming on the cars so another scrape required in the morning.

[mrsmall]

Minus 3.9 in swindon and very frosty already.

[124alex]

-3.1c dewpoint: -4c Perfrect conditions for snow! shames theres no precip..

[AWD]

T48 from the latest NAE suggest very marginal for any snowfall across the West Country. Thickness's are a little to high for my liking;

Dewpoints are Ok however;

Upper 850 temperatures look marginal at best, bearing in mind these are getting pushed ever further east at this timescale;

With frontal band over Ireland & West Wales at this stage;

Other potential weather nuances around are freezing fog, with reduced visibility in places during tomorrow mornings commute;

This temporarily clears but quickly returns in time for the evening rush for some;

And spreading over a larger area of southern England;

Although clearing in time for daybreak Wednesday morning;

A very cold day tomorrow, with some places struggling to get above freezing;

An a widespread, very cold night tomorrow night with a harsh air frost likely;

[chris55]

It will be interesting to see variation in minima tonight - these will tend to reach a point where further drop is arrested in areas where ground is still wet from recent rainfall events (by in-ground freezing) - so anticipate lowest values where ground is driest (e.g., parts of Wilts perhaps?). Fog point still looking between -2 to -4C. New models have equally bullish signal for freezing fog formation starting even as early as 1300-1500 tomorrow afternoon and I wouldn't be surprised if we're already seeing some problematic areas of this by tomorrow evening rush-hour.

That's very interesting Ian, so when the ground is wetter/saturated it will arrest a drop in temps because the energy is being used to freeze the ground water rather than cool the air? Have I got that right, the theory makes sense in my head but I can't explain it well.

Also to Musician, my garden always tends to be a bit of a frost hollow. Down to -3.1 now, no Fog forming yet though.

Edited December 10, 2012 by chris55

[AWD]

The 120 FAX shows the true scale of the depression that looks to affect our weather for much of the weekend;

Persistent strong winds & frequent rainfall.

[Dorsetbred]

Down here on the coast it's currently -2.8°C

Edited December 11, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Robin_Whitby]

woke up to a dusting of snow in Twyford, Berkshire this morning!

[gottolovethisweather]

woke up to a dusting of snow in Twyford, Berkshire this morning!

Well done you, not a million miles from me.

When you get a second, can you update your profile to show your location, please.

Many Thanks

[Robin_Whitby]

I've tried that a few times, when I post from my phone it seems to forget where I am. (Hence being specific about which Twyford in my post.) It really is the lightest of dustings of snow, almost not worth saying anything about. Hoping for more later in the week!

[gottolovethisweather]

I've tried that a few times, when I post from my phone it seems to forget where I am. (Hence being specific about which Twyford in my post.) It really is the lightest of dustings of snow, almost not worth saying anything about. Hoping for more later in the week!

Ah, I don't think it will update from a phone, you best speak to Paul on that one.

Once you start reporting feet of snow lying (as if, in Berkshire ) people get a bit narked if you don't show your location.

If you can, please log in on another occasion via a PC or laptop.

A dusting of snow is good, small steps and all that.

[fromey]

morning all.

-5.1c here this morning

fromey

[AWD]

-2.2c here with a frosts but skies now currently overcast.

[john w]

Brrrrrr bitter cold. The old phone aint so good at seeing charts but i noted the real lack lf any decent height rises over greenland last night. If you remember previous cold cold spells the model forum always looked for a greeny high and a big one....its just not showing enough at present to give me much confidence.

Also this weekend looks bothersome and half the reason this low takes so long to go is due to the blocks to our east. Its a monstrous feature....not sure i have seen one so big in quite some time.

Ill get a decent look at the models later hopefully but from last nights views some leading edge snow on fri looked marginally possible but this will quickly be replaced by rain. Then sadly its battle royale with the atlantic...i fear...for some time.