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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 9th 2013>

Snowangel-North

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Whilst it has already been mentioned, the MetO is most interesting, here's why in my opinion, as posted in the other regional.

For the fifth day in a row the MetO 6-15 dayer has mentioned the word snow, now that is what I call consistent. It is also what I call, stepping back and taking the overall model suite output for what it is, a guide or general trend as what conditions are to be expected in the near future.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2475711

Game on and we're less than 48 hours away from seeing the first snowflakes over certain parts of this region.

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

Ate the chances of snow for East Sussex gone now as ill be out on Saturday and rather have snow than rain lol

A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

** Very Important Read **.....

**Model Output Discussion thread summary for the morning of Thursday 11th Jan 2013**

It might rain, it might snow

It might be mild, it might be cold

It might be windy, it might be calm

It might be an easterly, it might be a south westerly

The GFS is gospel, the GFS is blasphemy

I'm now schizophrenic, and so am I!

wacko.png

Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

This is our outlook for Monday now and not Sunday......

post-17085-0-33305200-1357820605_thumb.j

NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

** Very Important Read **.....

**Model Output Discussion thread summary for the morning of Thursday 11th Jan 2013**

It might rain, it might snow

It might be mild, it might be cold

It might be windy, it might be calm

It might be an easterly, it might be a south westerly

The GFS is gospel, the GFS is blasphemy

I'm now schizophrenic, and so am I!

wacko.png

Following on from that top used phrases and words from the model thread:

"I agree"

"I don't agree"

"ANOTHER DOWNGRADE"

"Winters over guys"

"mild, damp and cloudy"

"Don't look at FI" (Even though the persons saying this do)

"how can you say that"

"no"

Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted

Weather warnings out for this area.

And it's for ice.

Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Weather warnings out for this area.

Can you put your area in your profile please so we know what that applies to!!!!

Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted

Can you put your area in your profile please so we know what that applies to!!!!

It is/was. (hertfordshire)

East of England

Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

My snow risk has upped to 43 for sat instead of 34 now sundays gone from 90 to 73,why dont they round it off like tesco,asda do,its dropping ,but dont believe them,its going to snow,thats all i need to know,dont care how much,i just want to see it fall,im easily pleased

polarlow2 Newbie

polarlow2

Posted
  • Location: Hanwell, west London
  • Location: Hanwell, west London
Posted

Blimey that's quite an update from the Met Office for days 6-15. Certainly far more bullish than I would have thought.

Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Coast your valuable input now. How likely do you think we are to a prolonged cold spell

Sorry, actually been offline working (I know, I know doh.gif )

I can't say in the longer term, I'd like to think a good dumping of snow at the end of the month, then into Feb, but lets get this weekend out of the way first eh?

Looks like the best of the next few days is still out East judging from GFS output this morning - great for me, maybe not for others in this thread. Here's my pick of the run from 06z:

102_20.gif

It's really only short lived and I'm not sure the ground will be cold enough for it to lay to any extent, but it is snow!

Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

Well its a start for met office warning on ice,just waiting for it to upgrade to snow now

Sorry, actually been offline working (I know, I know doh.gif )

I can't say in the longer term, I'd like to think a good dumping of snow at the end of the month, then into Feb, but lets get this weekend out of the way first eh?

Looks like the best of the next few days is still out East judging from GFS output this morning - great for me, maybe not for others in this thread. Here's my pick of the run from 06z:

102_20.gif

It's really only short lived and I'm not sure the ground will be cold enough for it to lay to any extent, but it is snow!

Can you move that marker pen over to essex plz
Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Blimey that's quite an update from the Met Office for days 6-15. Certainly far more bullish than I would have thought.

Pretty sure the data set they were using for that could well be already out of date ?

Not going to get any rep points for this but I am sensing a possible watering down for the Mid Term in this afternoons UKMO & ECMWF Runs (T120 - T168 Period), with a more progressive milder flow by late next week, toy and rattles will be thrown all over the place in the Model Output Discussion thread so go in there and hide in a corner and then...................................Run when it gets outta control!

Kudos to GFS For persisting with this pattern but it might just have this one, just a feeling from the last few runs.

Any snow events from Lp's encroaching from the west will obviously favour the Northern Parts of the Uk!

Still good chances after the Milder blip of Snow into early February Mind You!

And with that I am going to run and take me coat with me b4 I get hounded out of the regionals!

Hope I am wrong on this!

Snowangel-North Veteran

Snowangel-North

Posted
  • Location: Moulton NN3
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Moulton NN3
  • Author
Posted

Yellow Alert of Ice for East of England :

Cambridgeshire, Bedford, Central Bedfordshire, Suffolk, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

Yellow Alert of Ice for London & South East England :

Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Greater London, Kent, Medway, Bracknell Forest, East Sussex, Hampshire, Reading, Slough, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, Brighton and Hove, Isle of Wight, Portsmouth & Southampton

Valid from: 1800 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Sun 13 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will gradually clear southwards on Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will then fall rapidly, leading to a risk of icy surfaces.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Issued at: 1222 on Thu 10 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1357732860

Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Mr Murr has gone exactly the opposite to me btw so one of us is going to be right! smiliz39.gifair_kiss.gif

Hoping Steve has one over on me later this afternoon.

All eyes onto the 5-7pm time period! Its going to be tense!

But we should all enjoy what comes at us before all the looking ahead at the pattern (Days 7-10)

Snow in January! At last!

Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

quiet a good video about the upcomming cold spell

Lol this is what all weather forecasters should do,and then the disclaimer at end end,so funny
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Right, it might be daft but I have checked the MOD for a consensus and the only one I can draw from all the On-Topic posts is:

There is complete model uncertainty and even the Met Office are struggling with analysis of their own and other models.

I still think snow is on the cards Saturday, Sunday and Monday - maybe not as much as we would all like, but it could be white for a while anywhere in this region before going again Tuesday.

Long term? Check Paul Sherman's post above, as although it's not highly encouraging, it may be nearer the mark. :good:

Can you move that marker pen over to essex plz

If I could do that, I'd cover the whole region Jo :clap:

Summer of 76 Community Regular

Summer of 76

Posted
Posted

Having just read the latest 3 day to 16 day forecast issued a short while ago it has changed since the 4qm one this morning to a more wintry outlook especially for the eastern side of the country

Jo S Enthusiast

Jo S

Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
Posted

Right, it might be daft but I have checked the MOD for a consensus and the only one I can draw from all the On-Topic posts is:

There is complete model uncertainty and even the Met Office are struggling with analysis of their own and other models.

I still think snow is on the cards Saturday, Sunday and Monday - maybe not as much as we would all like, but it could be white for a while anywhere in this region before going again Tuesday.

Long term? Check Paul Sherman's post above, as although it's not highly encouraging, it may be nearer the mark. good.gif

If I could do that, I'd cover the whole region Jo clap.gif

yES PLZ cOAST,OBLITERATE US ALL,WITH SNOW
NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

South East England 60%

A band of rain, sleet or snow will spread across the region with significant snow accumulations possible, especially in northern and eastern parts of the region.

Excitement still needs to be help back its not nailed yet lol!

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