South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 9th 2013>

[Jimmyh]

love it yamkin and his croydon council reports are back brings a smile to my face

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu look to the east coast..Cold air pouring in

Clash of the titans next week I reckon

Edited January 10, 2013 by Surrey

[Eskimo]

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu look to the east coast..Cold air pouring in

Clash of the titans next week I reckon

Amazing to see the UK in no mans land with both beasts knocking on both doors.

[Grinzzz]

I thought the SSW was supposed to increase heights to the north and therfore cut of the atlantic ,and therfore also stop the shortwaves from happening ..?

If this isnt the case im confused and feel a bit silly, its only what i read..

Still learning too but from what I've read you're almost right, it increases chances of northern heights building somewhere. From what I can tell this just increases our chances in the weather lottery; it guarantees nothing. Looks like our luck may be in for this weekend and maybe beyond. GP's latest post in the mod thread appears to be suggestive of cold weekend, warming a little (but still staying cool/cold) followed by another cold spell. Given I think he first posted about a mid-January cooling in early December I'll go with his thoughts at the moment and filter out all the bickering in there.

A nice cool start to today in west MK, no frost this morning which is a shame - had a nice grass frost at midnight.

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Brilliant post from Steve:

Morning All-

Took a time out overnight & have just logged in & yes.

NO CHANGE. ECM very snowy although that snow margin has moved to the east & SE as opposed to the west for the fronts-

The UKMO & GEM are awsome & then we come round to the GFS..... what a stinker, although upgrades in the midterm-

Ive also noticed the PPN shunted back a bit on the UKMO & GFS & a more fragmented low with isolines at a SE angle as opposed to a circular low-

This will suck up the continental undercut quicker so for T60 ( although ideally the 54 chart at 06z sat)

http://www.meteociel...0-594.GIF?10-06

We get the PPN into 528 air & surface charts

http://www.meteociel...0-580.GIF?10-06

so again roughly a line from kent out to glouceser looks set fair for snow with places like the chilters / downs etc doing well-

Further out ECM PPN here

http://en.vedur.is/p...10_0000_120.png

need it to move west a bit! -

& the UKMO is perfect for the UK as a WHOLE

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?10-06

In summary chart term snow potential high, upgrades for cold & snow in the mid term, post day 5 no resolution- but COULD be a lot of snow

S

[tonbridgemole]

Weather Alert From Kentonline News.......Mark Wilson, forecaster for the Met Office said: "There's high confidence that conditions will turn colder over the next few days.

"In terms of snowfall there's more uncertainty, but there's a risk of Kent seeing snow by Monday.

"On Monday there's a risk of a band of sleet and snow pushing from the north west and reaching the Kent area - from Monday night into Tuesday.

"Temperatures reaching no more than two or three degrees - a very cold day especially in the wind."

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Amazing to see the UK in no mans land with both beasts knocking on both doors.

Oh yes Going to be fun and games come the weekend few upgrades to

[Paul Sherman]

One of the things that still baffles me is maybe the UKMO & Ecm have the Jet Profiles wrong in their data set, GFS Persists with the movement of the Shortwave in a totally different direction ??

But crucially it has now started to move it more to the east than North or North East in the last 2 runs. This still not good for us as it would allow the milder air to make inroads quite easily end of next week.

ECM as expected would always downgrade the extent of the cold uppers back east but crucially still showing quite a snowy episode next week.

So where do we go from here ?? Million dollar question but I would now expect a middle ground from T120 to T168 and a blend of the Major 3 resulting in a very messy picture middle to end of next week with some battleground scenarios, by that time though we should have had some decent falls of snow Sunday into Tuesday for our little corner of the world!

Btw dont expect the GFS To back down anytime soon!

Has the GFS Finally caught onto the Dynamics of weather and is now starting to allow the Shortwave to actually follow the Jet Pattern!

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http://www.sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=1# snow...

[GoonerGregg77]

I think major investment is needed on weather technology, seriously! This isn't a moan by the way, because I genuinely believe the GFS will start to gradually make some sense of the amount of cold coming very soon and thus fall in too line with the UKMO & ECM for that matter, although it would seem on 1 run that it's falling in line with the backtracked GFS on it's 4 consecutive runs now.

When I was merely 14 years of age, in Feb 1991, I remember hearing the first signs of a impending cold spell, it was on countryfile on a sunday on BBC 1, before the Thursday the next week the famous easterly hit our shores, and I can tell you now, I remember that forecast very well. It was very accurate, and you don't get much of a accurate countryfile forecast these days do you!

It picked up the threat, and it depicted nearly exact to what actually materialized. No sitting on the fence, no hesitancy.

Why today there can be this much confusion a few days before a winter event astounds me. Todays technology? Sorry, I have serious doubts.

My view is that there is a chance there will be a *Less cold* movement from the west effecting the SW and and Ireland, along with maybe Wales and the NW of England, but I do believe that will be an overcooked guess at the minute. Just look at the Jet Stream, look at the heights in Scandinavia, and more importantly the wind direction as a result. This type of scenario can be shifted slightly, and we may end up with a more Northerly flow with a NNE twinge to it as well, but a full SW wind rushing in and pushing the cold back towards the East? Not for me, and not a biased view neither.

I just think the SW may be unlucky at times in this cold spell.

[BeastFromTheEast]

http://www.sat24.com...op.aspx?type=1# snow...

not for north Norfolk lol,..... although the BBC forecast showed snow for Sunday....time will tell I guess fingers crossed and curtains adjusted to see the street lamp lol

[Lampostwatcher]

9.57 bbc weather had rain south of the m4 and snow up to St. Albans across to wales

[NO LONGER POSTING]

9.57 bbc weather had rain south of the m4 and snow up to St. Albans across to wales

Don't ever follow those forecasts lol!

[GoonerGregg77]

Don't ever follow those forecasts lol!

Well said. Totally agree. Do not follow them. You might as well just see what turns up this weekend and if it snows then the BBC will show snow symbols that people want to see. It's nowcast from them.

Edited January 10, 2013 by GoonerGregg77

[Paul Sherman]

Well I was right in the first place to say "Dont expect the GFS to Back Down"

Pretty incredible differences, and although it thought about sending the energy SSE It still persists with smashing it into Scandi, net effect on this will be screaming Swersterlies in its later output as soon as Middle to end of Next Week!

Fascinating Models at the moment!

[azores92]

Whats a hoo hah?

the sensation one gets walking on hot coals with bare feet

[Jo S]

well we are going to get some white stuff this weekend,so im very happy with tha t, just dont know how much yet and what happens next wk,who knows.

[nanu]

Well I was right in the first place to say "Dont expect the GFS to Back Down"

Pretty incredible differences, and although it thought about sending the energy SSE It still persists with smashing it into Scandi, net effect on this will be screaming Swersterlies in its later output as soon as Middle to end of Next Week!

Fascinating Models at the moment!

to be honest paul i think the whole lot is cocked up.. not 1 model to me is right or knows whats going to happen, i refuse to believe any of them except watching the vids on bbc website.. i know they are going by them as well but they must have something there to correct and use as a backup to give a better truthful forecast to us.. And yet the kids in the model forums still watch with interest on every run like a bloody heroin addictive drug and say "Yep i believe the gfs will be the winner!!", "Nope its this one" etc etc.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

well we are going to get some white stuff this weekend,so im very happy with tha t, just dont know how much yet and what happens next wk,who knows.

Forecasts now coming out 5-10cm with more over higher ground with the chance of even more than that.. Don't hold me to that though lol!

[nanu]

I think major investment is needed on weather technology, seriously! This isn't a moan by the way, because I genuinely believe the GFS will start to gradually make some sense of the amount of cold coming very soon and thus fall in too line with the UKMO & ECM for that matter, although it would seem on 1 run that it's falling in line with the backtracked GFS on it's 4 consecutive runs now.

When I was merely 14 years of age, in Feb 1991, I remember hearing the first signs of a impending cold spell, it was on countryfile on a sunday on BBC 1, before the Thursday the next week the famous easterly hit our shores, and I can tell you now, I remember that forecast very well. It was very accurate, and you don't get much of a accurate countryfile forecast these days do you!

It picked up the threat, and it depicted nearly exact to what actually materialized. No sitting on the fence, no hesitancy.

Why today there can be this much confusion a few days before a winter event astounds me. Todays technology? Sorry, I have serious doubts.

My view is that there is a chance there will be a *Less cold* movement from the west effecting the SW and and Ireland, along with maybe Wales and the NW of England, but I do believe that will be an overcooked guess at the minute. Just look at the Jet Stream, look at the heights in Scandinavia, and more importantly the wind direction as a result. This type of scenario can be shifted slightly, and we may end up with a more Northerly flow with a NNE twinge to it as well, but a full SW wind rushing in and pushing the cold back towards the East? Not for me, and not a biased view neither.

I just think the SW may be unlucky at times in this cold spell.

love this.. should post it in the model thread.. might last 10mins before they get their crucifix's out at you!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

to be honest paul i think the whole lot is cocked up.. not 1 model to me is right or knows whats going to happen, i refuse to believe any of them except watching the vids on bbc website.. i know they are going by them as well but they must have something there to correct and use as a backup to give a better truthful forecast to us.. And yet the kids in the model forums still watch with interest on every run like a bloody heroin addictive drug and say "Yep i believe the gfs will be the winner!!", "Nope its this one" etc etc.

Please please don't follow the BBC forecast .They are usually out of date. And with all the information you have at your hands with charts, graphs ETC. You could make your own forecast

[gottolovethisweather]

Whilst only looking at the overnight runs and comparing them to the 12z, it is clear to see there is model suite confusion.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/page__st__2000#entry2475293

The 12z runs will be the most reliable now, when it comes to predicting this weekend's wintry mess and its exact positioning.

[Essex Chelle]

Morning, is it just me that can no longer view everyone's locations? Sorry if this has already been mentioned - to me it's one of the most crucial tools when on here knowing who has snow the closest to me etc.

[Jo S]

Forecasts now coming out 5-10cm with more over higher ground with the chance of even more than that.. Don't hold me to that though lol!

Yep i will lol,that would be great,i want,i want ,i want

[Grinzzz]

Morning, is it just me that can no longer view everyone's locations? Sorry if this has already been mentioned - to me it's one of the most crucial tools when on here knowing who has snow the closest to me etc.

turned off to save server resources. They've suggested adding location to signatures.