South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 9th 2013>

[john pike]

lets show the updated fax for saturday

as the low heads in a south east direction it drags in cold easterlies cold air over us by then turning to snow late afternoon evening

[Jayces]

Don't get me wrong John, I am looking forward to the weekend snow, I just think after that is still a long way from set in stone.

[john pike]

hi jayces

i agree with you

however i reckon by 12z ecm it will have shifted it further back west again

should not do every run

not good for sanity

gfs will probably at some time today run the control run as the main run to confuse it even more

[Dexter29]

Ok guys, my take on things in a nutshell.

We now have 4 Consecutive GFS runs bringing the Atlantic train to our shores.

Our saving grave the ECM has downgraded our cold this morning and it does show a different pattern to GFS and keeping us in the cold for longer with a potential of more battleground scenarios rather than a full on easterly cold up to +144

NOGAPS unfortunately has followed The GFS trend this morning.

UKMO and other models still have us on the Artic express.

Tbh, I don't know what to believe? After seeing the ECM this morning I fear that today is going to be the day of downgrades from every model, my head tells me this but my heart says stick with the cold.

I've noticed some members this morning on the MOD thread have said " we need to wait another 12hrs"

Nonsense... We needed to see some kind of cold agreement from the GFS TODAY, saying we need "to wait" is prolonging the agony.

The fact the ECM has done what's it's done this morning -

GFS continues the Atlantic train and also NOGAPS following suit, tells me this is really worrying. Historically speaking.

I still need to look over the ensembles this morning.

The weekend is still going to provide us with a good chance of snowfall for our region :-)

I for one am happy with that, but if the trend to milder continues today then expect that snow that's on the floor (if any) to melt quicker, than you can say " not another failed cold spell "

[john pike]

hi dexter

you will not get any sense out of this

stick with the control run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

not looking until fax update now

see you later

[Amanzi]

I have no where near as much knowledge as some (heck most on here), but I have been a member here since 2008 and before that I was a mod on a popular american weather forum in the USA, when I lived in Florida. I just have to say, I have never seen such volatile model out put. Enough to completely do your head in. I shall be sticking with JP's fax reports.

Have a fantastic day all.

[Dexter29]

hi dexter

you will not get any sense out of this

stick with the control run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

not looking until fax update now

see you later

Exactly what I was thinking, just going to wait for the fax

[Paul Ashford]

Exactly what I was thinking, just going to wait for the fax

John, Dexter - Are the faxes updated in the day, or is just late tonight?

Thanks

Paul.

[john pike]

John, Dexter - Are the faxes updated in the day, or is just late tonight?

Thanks

Paul.

hi paul

the ones i posted were updated this morning

the next update i will do will be around 11 tonight

[Charltonkerry]

You have got to be brave to venture into the model thread today. Think I will keep popping in here today to judge the mood before making up my mind to go in there. Loads of repeated garbage in there, feel extremely sorry for the mods.

[Laurence Hill]

There is a marked absence of respected posters on the Model thread, I noticed this from the pub run onwards.

Would have thought they would have commented on the uncertainty especially at times like this.

Seems very odd to me, I especially miss Steve Murrs input.

[john pike]

There is a marked absence of respected posters on the Model thread, I noticed this from the pub run onwards.

Would have thought they would have commented on the uncertainty especially at times like this.

Seems very odd to me, I especially miss Steve Murrs input.

hi

most of the main posters seem to favour the 12z runs

expect to see that today as well

[Coast]

most of the main posters seem to favour the 12z runs

I think they have the best spread of input data sources don't they?

Morning all, are we getting a little excited yet?

There is a marked absence of respected posters on the Model thread, I noticed this from the pub run onwards.

I think the standard of posting in there is putting people off, not the weather forecasting

[Jayces]

Various Matt Hugo Tweets from just now....

00z GFS still not having it and to an extent ECM not just as impressive. Until the GFS 'comes on board' there is always some uncertainty.

GFS Op and Control remain particularly mild outliers but the distinct split in the GFS ENS next week is clearly evident http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=250&y=40&run=0&runpara=0&type=0&ext=0 …

From experience there will be a sudden shift in the GFS ENS and the models in general. It's still difficult to say which way it'll go.

Given recent model runs from the ECM, UKMO, GEM & the EC ENS for e.g the GFS still remains the odd one out, but that doesn't mean it's wrong

[john pike]

I think they have the best spread of input data sources don't they?

Morning all, are we getting a little excited yet?

I think the standard of posting in there is putting people off, not the weather forecasting

I think they have the best spread of input data sources don't they?

Morning all, are we getting a little excited yet?

I think the standard of posting in there is putting people off, not the weather forecasting

hi coast

wont be back until later but i have also heard the 12z has the better data

gonna stay off until tonight

good luck today coast your gonna need it

[Icebox]

ECM having a wobble now......... l am starting to have concerns that its on to something.

That said the GFS is going against background signals and most of the other models.

Confused.com!!!!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Icebox

[lottiekent]

ECM having a wobble now......... l am starting to have concerns that its on to something.

That said the GFS is going against background signals and most of the other models.

Confused.com!!!!

Well this is what a forum host had to say on that matter on the model thread...

Eh? Am I reading the same models?

UKMO just as good if not better than yesterdays 12z.

EC not as good as yesterday 12z, but just as snowy for many areas- and just as good as yesterdays 0z. Whats this cr*p about the EC backtracking?! A very snowy EC with the trough dropping around d4... as in previous output

GFS the lone wolf again

I don't understand people at times, please, if you are going to be reactionary, use the model moan and ramp thread.

[Coast]

good luck today coast your gonna need it

The Swan-like, regal upper body is hiding the furious paddling going on underneath for the team at the moment.

[Icebox]

By wobble I do not mean a huge backtrack....

I still believe GFS is barking up the wrong tree but we need to see it starting to back down, which it's not doing.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Icebox

[shotski]

For what it's worth (Probably not alot) GFS and ECM are both wrong after day 5 IMO.

ECM closer to the mark at the moment but I am hoping for greater heights to the north west

of us to be shown very shortly.

[SLEETY]

I like the Met Office forecast this morning

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Rather cloudy on Saturday with outbreaks of rain later, this becoming increasingly wintry. A chilly easterly breeze developing. Snow showers on Sunday in cold winds. Further snow possible on Monday.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 10 Jan 2013

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2013 to Wednesday 23 Jan 2013:

Through Monday, outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are expected to spread southeastwards across central and western areas. Eastern areas will be mostly dry and bright, although with a risk of some coastal wintry showers. By Tuesday, western parts should turn generally dry and fine although some sleet and snow showers are likely to continue towards the east. It will be cold with widespread frost and ice in places. Through the remainder of the period, central and western areas are likely to see generally fine and dry weather with overnight frost and freezing fog, although some rain and milder conditions may spread into the far west at times. Elsewhere, wintry showers are expected, with the risk of snow even to low levels, and these showers may spread westwards at times.

looking good then snow showers sunday then perhaps more general snow monday yet people worrying about what the models are showing afterwards anything past 3-4 days is always likely to change anyway

[Brocken Spectre]

Would love to post this gem in the Model threads, but something tells me not to!

"Francis's" (Rory) chop and changing seems to strike a chord!

[Jayces]

I think someone on the model thread yesterday said it best and that is that the fact is that ALL the models are wrong but it's which one is wrong the least which will be the one that we get ;-)

At the moment FI is T72 (1 AM Sunday) at which point they all start doing something different so 24 hours later all 3 show a different picture.

Yes in the grand scheme of things the ECM and UKMO are cold and snowy and the GFS less cold and less snowy but surely whenever there is a difference shown you have to sit up and take notice that from that point forward no model is probably correct and the end result will be a mixture of them all.

I think from o on for a general pattern personally I won't look beyond T72 ;-)

[Heisenberg]

From this mornings mod thread:

Thanks Teits. It looks like Saturdays front in the south is being placed further south and east. At this rate only kent will see anything from it. As it stands as said earlier the M4 / London / reading looks about as far north as it will get?

Its so confusing over there....Will we get snow/wont we get snow...I did notice that heart FM have started saying "snow at the weekend" on thier reports.....

The NW (ALbeit GFS guided) precip charts show snow for Hatfield from Saturday afternoon through to Sunday afternoon....

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Clear skies and ground frost here this morning, so pleasant.

To me, the ECM model (00Z) is showing very marginal conditions for later in the weekend / early next week and then is not looking particularly exciting for the south of Britain - the north fares much better imo.

But, like others have said, it isn't to be taken at face value. Fundamentally the normal west to east weather pattern looks shot to pieces at the moment and there is a whole lot of potential for snow events over the coming weeks.