South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 9th 2013>

[mulzy]

Morning all.

Clear skies and ground frost here this morning, so pleasant.

To me, the ECM model (00Z) is showing very marginal conditions for later in the weekend / early next week and then is not looking particularly exciting for the south of Britain - the north fares much better imo.

But, like others have said, it isn't to be taken at face value. Fundamentally the normal west to east weather pattern looks shot to pieces at the moment and there is a whole lot of potential for snow events over the coming weeks.

Yep the ECM is a pretty decent run for the northern half of the country, though it would only take a small shift to bring us back into the firing line and we know all know it will change again.

1.5C Cloudy

[Paul Ashford]

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

00Z EC ENS is similar to the EC Det with a 'slider low' middle of next week and it maintains the cold, but it sure is knife-edge situation.

Tweeted at 0845

[Katiewombat]

Whilst we are in confused. Com mode. I am still unsure after years of winters following these threads. If South Bucks comes under South East or Central.

Please enlighten me :-)

[sandhurst-smoker]

Whilst we are in confused. Com mode. I am still unsure after years of winters following these threads. If South Bucks comes under South East or Central.

Please enlighten me :-)

I am in berkshire so i use both southeast and soutwest chat now so that way it covers us in someway ....

[kold weather]

Set-up is indeed abit uncertain right now, on a local level best just look at the set-up this weekend, that in itself has plenty of uncertainties to keep us going!!

The key for snow will be to delay the front by say 6-12hrs, that would have the main band arriving during the night time hours, and from past experience that can make a massive difference in somewhat borderline set-ups, as this appears to be.

I'm pretty sure that there will be snow from this (unless the whole lot misses us!) its just how much comes along.

[Azores Hi]

Morning All!

What strikes me is that with such broad model discrepancies at the medium range and with FI being so close what is the likely effect on modeling detail on the short range? These slider low situations are hard enough to forecast at the best of times. Seems to me what ever happens next week there is great potential for surprise!

[Snowman31]

Hi all, can I ask a question here as they delete everything in the model thread. On the ECM would -4 uppers be good enough for snow? Thanks

[Coast]

Hi all, can I ask a question here as they delete everything in the model thread. On the ECM would -4 uppers be good enough for snow? Thanks

Here we go, a bit of reading for you this morning:

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Well it's very frosty here in Ippy and the roofs are white and all the car windscreens are frozen up. What a difference from the last few days, eh?

Now lets see what the week-end brings.

Have a good day everyone.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Woke up to a touch of frost Nice to see the cold setting in now...

I said a few days back that we would see downgrades yesterday and today...I think Friday will see upgrades...The models have not even taken into effect yet the SSW .

Looking forward to a potential very snowy period from Friday night to Tuesday

[Snowangel-MK]

Was it meant to be this cold tonight?

It would seem that the cold air has established itself a little quicker than first expected, this has to be good news if it means any precipitation will fall as snow !

Sadly looking like a return to less cold weather as early as Monday

Not if you believe what you read in the papers :

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-snow-ice-and-subzero-1527009

Morning all,

I've woken up to winter here anyway, it seems like a pretty good start to me

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Chinese model...If that came of <3

[Jimmyh]

oh my god have u seen it on the slashing mod discussion worst mood than i have ever seen 60 pages of arguments

[craigore]

I thought the SSW was supposed to increase heights to the north and therfore cut of the atlantic ,and therfore also stop the shortwaves from happening ..?

If this isnt the case im confused and feel a bit silly, its only what i read..

Frost and Fog here this morning ,much more seasonal temp 1.8c

Edit .. i understand the Atlantic is the driving force and will always win out eventually, but on this occasion i thought the jet stream would be interrupted.to allow the cold to take hold,, for at least a 10 day period or there abouts?

Still learning i guess..

[Floatylight]

HI everyone

Wow very preatty outside all white and crisp.

Lots of hair to do today so no netweather for me

Be able to come on a bout 5 i rekon.

So will be wondering wats going on all day!

Well best get out and de ice the car then,take care all and have a nice day sam x

[Thinon]

Sleet for the weekend, bright but chilly next week. So why all the hoo-hah?

[Methuselah]

Good morning, all...

In preparation for next week's Beast from The East, I hung a large piece of bacon into a lilac tree, yesterday...By this morning, this has completely vanished...I think an owl may have taken it?

So much the the ideal 'ambush!

[yamkin]

MetO have released a snow threat this weekend to Croydon Council

[nanu]

Sleet for the weekend, bright but chilly next week. So why all the hoo-hah?

its because ppl dont trust the models or the uk weather.. also with the models regarding any snow nobody trust them anymore till its outside dropping the white stuff, cant say i blame them.. heatwave the following week!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sleet for the weekend, bright but chilly next week. So why all the hoo-hah?

Chin up..You couldn't predict it from today..Tomorrow we will find out what is happening..

[Paul Sherman]

One of the things that still baffles me is maybe the UKMO & Ecm have the Jet Profiles wrong in their data set, GFS Persists with the movement of the Shortwave in a totally different direction ??

But crucially it has now started to move it more to the east than North or North East in the last 2 runs. This still not good for us as it would allow the milder air to make inroads quite easily end of next week.

ECM as expected would always downgrade the extent of the cold uppers back east but crucially still showing quite a snowy episode next week.

So where do we go from here ?? Million dollar question but I would now expect a middle ground from T120 to T168 and a blend of the Major 3 resulting in a very messy picture middle to end of next week with some battleground scenarios, by that time though we should have had some decent falls of snow Sunday into Tuesday for our little corner of the world!

Btw dont expect the GFS To back down anytime soon!

[Floatylight]

Whats a hoo hah?

[nanu]

Whats a hoo hah?

in irish sneeze??

[NO LONGER POSTING]

One of the things that still baffles me is maybe the UKMO & Ecm have the Jet Profiles wrong in their data set, GFS Persists with the movement of the Shortwave in a totally different direction ??

But crucially it has now started to move it more to the east than North or North East in the last 2 runs. This still not good for us as it would allow the milder air to make inroads quite easily end of next week.

ECM as expected would always downgrade the extent of the cold uppers back east but crucially still showing quite a snowy episode next week.

So where do we go from here ?? Million dollar question but I would now expect a middle ground from T120 to T168 and a blend of the Major 3 resulting in a very messy picture middle to end of next week with some battleground scenarios, by that time though we should have had some decent falls of snow Sunday into Tuesday for our little corner of the world!

Btw dont expect the GFS To back down anytime soon!

The weekend and begining of next week looks good...I still don't think the GFS as got it right...It's out on it's own really

Edited January 10, 2013 by Surrey

[Thinon]

Whats a hoo hah?

Wintry showers