South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Edited January 12, 2013 by Surrey

[Tamara]

On a separate note for today - the rain is trying to turn to sleet here now

[Dan the Man]

95% chance of heavy snow on Monday according to the GFS - surely the BBC/other organisations are just being overly cautious for now?

Edited January 12, 2013 by Dan the Man

[Dexter29]

The latest update for Monday by the METO indicates the uncertanity of things and how marginal it could be:

An area of sleet and snow will come eastwards across England during the early morning, probably becoming light and patchy later in the morning as it slows down over eastern areas. However, later in the day it is expected to intensify again, at the same time turning back to rain in places. Through the day there is the risk of 5 cm accumulations in places, and more than that above 200 m. However, there is greater than average uncertainty at this range, especially in the extent to which snow affects southern counties, and it is quite possible that the Alert will be upgraded to an amber Warning if confidence increases. The public are advised to monitor the forecast and to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Yesterday was a dead cert for heavy snow across this region.

The update from the Meto above proves how things can change within 6-12hr periods.

[Wivenswold]

Can everyone please make sure they put their location in their info so that we can get excited about your location reports with you?

[snowblind]

This is the latest warning taken from the met office site for Monday for the East of England, the one for the South East is the same.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=ee&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=0.87&lat=52.30&fcTime=1357905660

Two things I find slightly dissappointing is the fact that is says 5cm's in places, was hoping for more and the fact it says "turning back to rain in places" .

Looking at the models it doesn't seem marginal at all for our part of the world but that warning makes it sound very marginal indeed. The last sentance does give some cause for optimism however.

[Timer]

Can everyone please make sure they put their location in their info so that we can get excited about your location reports with you?

Put your location in your signature - don't have to keep including it in every post then!

[Damp and dreary]

Hi Jason,

Coast is the one to ask, you must be near neighbours now

Known Coasty for some years now (through here) We were just down the road from each other, now a few miles away) Dont know why im waffling this, it is of no interest! Il give him a shout anyway me darlin'! Ta :-)

Edited January 12, 2013 by jasonuk

[sarah7meme]

Little snow in lympne

[ITSY]

The question is about the intensity of the front. The models seem to be split amongst the ensembles (hence METO uncertainty) as to whether or not the front will re-intensify as it heads East. If it does, we are in the money. If it doesn't, we won't get anything hugely noteworthy.

The operationals (UKMO, GFS and I think ECM) all intensify the front before or as it hits our region (EA) so that when it actually snows, us and the SE get more than elsewhere.

It could still go the way of the pear though, and given the way the models have swung back and forth it shouldn't surprise us if it does. The GFS 06Z gave me 8-12cms, the 00Z gave me 5-7cms.

Edited January 12, 2013 by ITSY

[Floatylight]

On a separate note for today - the rain is trying to turn to sleet here now

Hi yas,any chance you could put your location in your sig on your profile,many thanks sam x

[Damp and dreary]

Hi Jason i'm just up the road from you I know there is one in Hailsham and I think there is one in Willingdon too from what I remember. Wunderground I think.

Thanks Jules, nice to see another local in the place! I believe i found the one you were talking about. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/UK/Hailsham.html

Be interesting to know where that station is based and how accurate. Thank youuuu!

[BLUNT]

Saw on the BBC they are saying the same thing now, showing rain south of the Thames now, no mention of turning back to rain, snow above London mixed with blue doesnt sound to good

[bobbydog]

lets hope the Meto confidence increases.....

"However, there is greater than average uncertainty at this range, especially in the extent to which snow affects southern counties, and it is quite possible that the Alert will be upgraded to an amber Warning if confidence increases. "

[Eddy]

Wet ,grey and cold in Eastbourne. Ran on Downs this morning and forgot gloves....fingers very cold. From my kitchen I have gradually watched the Downs disappear under mist and cloud. Over the past 3 years we have done well for snow here so I am optimistic about next week.

[craigore]

wth these sort of uppers how can darren mild bett be showing all rain across kent now for monday avo . I have just watched his forcast on 24.

Really getting anoyed now ,last night i was looking at 3 days of snow now looking like wet,wet,wet.....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Its still a long way out...Don't go all mad over what they are saying at the moment

[Dan the Man]

In fact it looks so marginal, the BBC forecast from 11.57 to 12.13 looked completely different for the Southern counties!

[kold weather]

I'm not sure why there is any marginality, temp profiles looking good to me, so I'm not quite sure where they are getting this 'rain' idea from...

The only place that looks marginal would be within say 10 miles from the coast.

I suspect the Met Office are simply hedging their bets right now, experience tells me in this set-up, it nearly always comes down as snow away from the coast.

With the best will in the world, ignore those forecasts, I'd be stunned if its anything other than snow for our neck of the woods.

Edited January 12, 2013 by kold weather

[Sara]

How do put where I am in my profile, on my phone and fined where to add it thanks guys:-)

[Damp and dreary]

Hi , could anyone that has not yet put their location into their profiles? It helps us get a better picture of what is happening where, ideal for times like now when many of us are hoping for some winteryness. Thanks! :-)

Jason

Edited January 12, 2013 by jasonuk

[saint]

I'm not sure why there is any marginality, temp profiles looking good to me, so I'm not quite sure where they are getting this 'rain' idea from...

The only place that looks marginal would be within say 10 miles from the coast.

I suspect the Met Office are simply hedging their bets right now, experience tells me in this set-up, it nearly always comes down as snow away from the coast.

With the best will in the world, ignore those forecasts, I'd be stunned if its anything other than snow for our neck of the woods.

This post is all you need to look at, I too am very confused as to why the BBC and Meto are currently forecasting so much marginality. Quite clear that they are hedging their bets in my opinion .

[Hammer]

That MO warning is perfect for covering all bases.

Basically they say it will snow but be sleety or rain in places, not sure how much but higher up you are the better. It might ease, it might intensify.

They also repeat greater level of uncertainty than normal on this occasion, which baffles me. It's like to much data the pro's have now far from increase confidence seems to lower it.

Basically lets wait for Monday.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Hammer

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm not sure why there is any marginality, temp profiles looking good to me, so I'm not quite sure where they are getting this 'rain' idea from...

The only place that looks marginal would be within say 10 miles from the coast.

I suspect the Met Office are simply hedging their bets right now, experience tells me in this set-up, it nearly always comes down as snow away from the coast.

With the best will in the world, ignore those forecasts, I'd be stunned if its anything other than snow for our neck of the woods.

Just about to say the same...I posted yesterday please ignore the BBC graphics they are nothing to go by!

[GoonerGregg77]

The Met Office, BBC, along with the ECM

I am, the conspiracy theorist......