South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ---->

[coram]

Moderate snow now in north-east Hampshire. There could be another couple of cm before it turns to rain, although until an hour ago it was supposed to be all rain. It may be that the specific ground conditions here mean that it remains snow. Large flakes now and lying on all surfaces.

[Coast]

Yesterdays forecast from Darren Bett:

[PompeyFC]

started to rain here just near southampton

[Coast]

Current temps:

Dewpoints:

[Timer]

Moderate snow now in north-east Hampshire. There could be another couple of cm before it turns to rain, although until an hour ago it was supposed to be all rain. It may be that the specific ground conditions here mean that it remains snow. Large flakes now and lying on all surfaces.

Sleety here now - could well be the beginning of the end for now. Temp now +1.4C. Looking on the radar we are now firmly in the green zone (rain/snow)

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Just rain here

Heavy, Mild , Rain

It is pretty damn epic that 7 days ago, Last friday was going to be the start of it all , With Saturday showing LOTS of snow, Then LOTS of snow for the SW on Mon into Tues and on Wednesday.

Now its.

(Possible) Snow at the weekend ( That will probably be rain anyway )

Im tempted to not bother following the models anymore. The "trend" is wrong. The outputs are wrong.. Is it even worth it when they are consistently backtracking 12h before..

I have every confidence in the models that the West country will see a lot of the white stuff before the winter is out. Be patient!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Glad to report heavy settling snow at last

[Mark Neal.]

Its gone from Snow to sleet here.... Current Temp. 0.5c. Dewpoint 0c.

[cerneman]

Nice.

Which correlates nicely with this information from earlier, should you click on the link.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2495589

Get the cold in and the snow should come.

I await the GFS 12z and of course, other outputs to confirm the continuation of this potentially prolonged spell.

Can remember back to the 62/63 cold spell, was not continuum of forecasts saying going to stay cold for X number of weeks, Every few days or so forecasters would hint of some mildier weather might try establish itself, Of course only after the final return to mild weather in March of that year did people realise how prolonged that cold spell actually was, Now we in days of model watching the threat of breakdowns to mildier conditions always there for us all to see, Some times ignorance can be bliss, Not saying our current cold spell will last beyond next weekend, But would not put bet on it either way at the moment Edited January 14, 2013 by cerneman

[cornish snow]

Just looked at the met office website for Helston (cornwall) and they give 6 hours of snow on friday morning.

If we could get a low far enough south to just scrape the cornish coast then i suppose this is a chance.

Anyway, nice to see at least a chance for us down here .

Wonder what people think about cornwall's snow chances later this week?

[Kiwi]

Moderate snow now in north-east Hampshire. There could be another couple of cm before it turns to rain, although until an hour ago it was supposed to be all rain. It may be that the specific ground conditions here mean that it remains snow. Large flakes now and lying on all surfaces.

Writing is on the wall I think. I'm not far west of you and the dewpoint has shot up from -0.6c at 10am to 0c at 11am.

I'm now just waiting for the rain to wash away our light covering of snow.

Edit: Now raining, 11.10am, It'll be icy out there tomorrow morning.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Kiwi

[Beast of Plympton]

A few flakes in the rain here. Im taking that as sleet! Straw clutching!

[sherrie]

Having been watching the model threads and the interesting comments on this forum all week I can only conclude that actualy we know nothing,last week the majority of the various models were all agreeing we would have snow today and look whats happened....rain here. Its lovely looking at those pictures with the lovely pink blobs over me for Friday but if it actualy happens I will be amazed as the only weather these models seem to predict with any acuracy is rain, on that they are correct every time. I know they have been saying that the east would have snow and yes they are getting snow so maybe its just our area of the world that is harder to predict snow for. Anyway its been interesting but its back to the real world now.....well until Friday

[karlos1983]

If you are feeling down, don't venture into the Midlands forum, depressing to say the least!!!

[Timer]

Can remember back to the 62/63 cold spell, was not continuum of forecasts saying going to stay cold for X number of weeks, Every few days or so forecasters would hint of some mildier weather might try establish itself, Of course only after the final return to mild weather in March of that year did people realise how prolonged that cold spell actually was, Now we in days of model watching the threat of breakdowns to mildier conditions always there for us all to see, Some times ignorance can be bliss, Not saying our current cold spell will last beyond next weekend, But would not put bet on it either way at the moment

Yes, I was a teenage weather fan in 62/63 - still have my daily weather records of that winter. There were many ice days but the occasional slightly milder spell with freezing rain and slight thaws. Never enough to remove the snow on the ground. Don't remember seeing weather charts only scraping the ice off the windows to nowcast!

[coram]

Writing is on the wall I think. I'm not far west of you and the dewpoint has shot up from -0.6c at 10am to 0c at 11am.

I'm now just waiting for the rain to wash away our light covering of snow.

You are probably right. Stopped here now, but according to the radar there is a heavier burst approaching from the west. If the intensity is great enough I could get some more snow before it does finally turn to rain. Hoping that there is still a covering after the precipitation passes through and that this stays on the ground for two or three days

[gottolovethisweather]

Just rain here

Heavy, Mild , Rain

It is pretty damn epic that 7 days ago, Last friday was going to be the start of it all , With Saturday showing LOTS of snow, Then LOTS of snow for the SW on Mon into Tues and on Wednesday.

Now its.

(Possible) Snow at the weekend ( That will probably be rain anyway )

Im tempted to not bother following the models anymore. The "trend" is wrong. The outputs are wrong.. Is it even worth it when they are consistently backtracking 12h before..

I think and hope you're wrong too then.

I believe it is simply too difficult to forecast snow at the timescales to which you refer and that's why they always differ.

The cold trend is pretty much set in stone and I do hope snow comes to those who are yet to receive it.

From an IMBY perspective it hasn't been that cold here yet, no frost or ice either so unless things change during the week, it won't be much of a cold spell here.

This is not a moan-post or anything, i just find it interesting how we can use the 'IMBY' even if we live, say .. 30 miles away from each other.

You can certainly justify the IMBY phrase, when it comes to snow prediction and local effects.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

Dew point still -1.4c here so favourable... sadly air temperature at 1.9c.

VERY marginal for here.

SM

[Mapantz]

You can certainly justify the IMBY phrase, when it comes to snow prediction and local effects.

Yeah that's what i mean. A guy who follows me on Twitter and lives in Dorset had a temp of 0.5°C while it was 5°C here. We can't be anymore that 10 miles away. Typical Purbeck micro-climate! lol

[Coast]

Here's where the line is currently:

[Dunlop Dave]

Temp of 8C

Dew point of 5C

And it's chucking down

Gotta love the Channel Islands

[latitude]

Rain clearing the North Somerset area now. Looking forward to a drying out day and a cold night.

Would like to see the temp drop below freezing IMBY tonight.

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice to see the Met Office going for some wintry conditions even down here in west Cornwall on Friday. Hope it doesnt change!

[kent]

Just for fun, I read somewhere that no two snowflakes are alike in their makeup, which got me thinking I havent seen two snowflakes to compare them lol. Still hopeful that later in the week providing the colder air entrenches we may hit the jackpot. More hope than expectation I may add. Currently pouring with very wet rain as per usual here.

[jessandjon]

Just took dog out felt like autumn!!!! Windy temp 5c dew point 5 and wet wet wet!!!