London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

[Kent Blizzard]

Concerned regarding the snow fri/sat... We have just had a snow shower in ramsgate ,nothing heavy but a snow shower all the same and never looked like settling, which is not surprisnig given the temp, which at the moment is hovering around +2c , my concern therefore is it wont settle on friday either, given these sort of temps and wind off the channel like it will be on friday..

Good luck for those inland......

I WOULD LIKE OPTION 3 PLEASE....

Totally different set up on Friday though (direction), I'm not that knows all the ins and outs of types of snow.

[hardcj]

Well it's looking good for Friday/Saturday for us and even later on past the weekend for snow (not counting my chickens yet though as disappointed by the recent near miss! But I think the right signs are there and the met office might be thinking the same:

"Yellow Alert of Snow18 Jan 2013, 03:00

Issued at - 16 Jan 2013, 10:56

Valid from - 18 Jan 2013, 03:00

Valid to - 18 Jan 2013, 23:55

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days."

The bits that stick out to me are:

-risk of significant travel disruption affecting east in the afternoon

-this warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days....

The models are pointing at something quite significant, BUT as others have posted.....a shift either was can change things for our little island!

[throwoff]

Ladies and gentlemen.

METO say its on (or at least they have a 60% belief it is 'on'!)

[Paul Sherman]

Btw will show you how an Option 3 can pan out in about 10 minutes and how the synoptics work with undercuts!

[Carol Frost]

WOW never thought I would see another person from this area in a weather forum, Hi

There is quite a few people on here from your surrounding area, I am not too far away either

[Kent Blizzard]

There is quite a few people on here from your surrounding area, I am not too far away either

Yeah but still suprised at one so close, we could probably see eachother out the window

[throwoff]

I am in Gillingham so not too far, we have that dip of Luton between us, positively high ground!

[Vertical Limit]

As a couple of people have just said, GP has just posted a major ramp/warning on the MOD thread, in respect of sustained prolonged severe cold over the next few weeks.

I have never seen him so bullish.

Anyway to the short term and fingers crossed, looking good for Friday/Saturday.

[hardcj]

^^NMM hi res model showing the start of the front coming in on Friday

^^ some good strong precipitation!

[Kent Blizzard]

Ok here is my updated snow risk map for Kent, based on this morning outputs, knowledgable posters in the forum and meto updates, zones have stayed the same currently but Northern Areas of Kent may join Western area zone later today,

[Jimmyh]

Update from the met office today we are all blanketed in a yellow warning now. I expect us to be in amber warning by tomorrow i would think

Issued at: 1056 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.

Ok here is my updated snow risk map for Kent, based on this morning outputs, knowledgable posters in the forum and meto updates, zones have stayed the same currently but Northern Areas of Kent may join Western area zone later today,

Where does Orpington fall inot as just moved their recently lol

[Coast]

So it's not about if we get snow now, it's more about where and how much. Most of that is down to watching the good old radar and the sky - good luck everyone, I really hope you all get exactly what you want!!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Coast

[snowbob]

Why still do the met office want to start with as the weather breaks down

Don't like that bit

[Neilsouth]

Snowing again 20p flakes

[Coast]

some good strong precipitation!

Oh yes, lots of model agreement now!

[Vertical Limit]

Update from the met office today we are all blanketed in a yellow warning now. I expect us to be in amber warning by tomorrow i would think

Issued at: 1056 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.

Where does Orpington fall inot as just moved their recently lol

Just west of Dartford so in the 8cm+ zone for now.

[Kent Blizzard]

Where does Orpington fall inot as just moved their recently lol

For ease say between Sevenoaks and Dartford so your in the good zone as it stands

[loopydreamer]

Yeah but still suprised at one so close, we could probably see eachother out the window

I might have driven passed your house the other day when i was taking my cat to the vet surgery in walderslade. lol. I live 5-10 mins away in chatham

[stainesbloke]

Looking good for a decent snow event Fri....will it all be washed away by Sat tho?

[throwoff]

Vet in Chatham? I went there last wekeend!

[crazy_diamond]

Hi CD

Yes, I took my son to South Essex College in thick fog this morning and it always amazes me how many people drive without any lights in fog!!!

Hi Meggy

Sorry about late response, popped to Sainsbogs! Don't get me on a soapbox about cars and lights! Argh, and the murky grey coloured car drivers appear to be the worst offenders. Anyway regarding the weather, car thermometer reads -2c, still foggy!

CD

[loopydreamer]

Vet in Chatham? I went there last wekeend!

My vets is in walderslade.

[Kent Blizzard]

Looking good for a decent snow event Fri....will it all be washed away by Sat tho?

Nope, I can't see it, Sunday maybe for those around the Coasts but even there the temps look borderline.

[throwoff]

The temps will come down more once the snow is on the ground and building, it will take a big blast from the Atlantic to clear it out quickly.

[Mark Neal.]

So it's not about if we get snow now, it's more about where and how much. Most of that is down to watching the good old radar and the sky - good luck everyone, I really hope you all get exactly what you want!!

I'm wanting 7 foot drifts, so probably won't get what I want! Ha.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Mark Neal.