Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards

[bradymk]

Ok lets compare the Metoffice Hi Res Map compared to the real time radar.

This data was produced earlier on the 18z run

That is the forecast for 23:00 above

Now the current radar for 23:00

They are basically identical, light rain as far as whitland with the main heavy band the same distance off the Pembrokeshire coast.

The Metoffice hi res then forecasts this come 3am

6am

Now because of how the forecast is nearly identical to current radar now, those forecasts above for 0300 and 0600 will be pretty accurate and both show the main band intensifying greatly in the next 2 hours so lets look out for that. All certainly going to plan. Any wet ground, snow will still stick due to low Dew points creating drier snow, which accumulates easier however we still need lower temps for this and some coastal areas may struggle.

Edited January 17, 2013 by bradythemole

[soupsurfer7]

Just to confirm to those who aren't sure: it's all still going to plan!

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hi Benb just wondering how you heard it was snowing in Plymouth? Thanks

Sorry just saw it on SW thread, it was just rain 5 mins ago, so looking good!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by SNOW CRYSTAL

[Stevetynant]

Confidence restored,thanks Bradley

[David 'Minty' Hill]

I just had a look on the M5 mortorway cameras and its raining right down south to be expected but dry further north. I think watching those will be a good indication of whats in store

for those of us in the swansea area this site is really good if you click on station select.

http://www.wundergro...57&sp=INEATHPO2

bit screwed up on wind direction tho says its comming from North not SE but shows 3oC here 65m above sea level.

Edited January 17, 2013 by David 'Minty' Hill

[CLH the red dragon]

I just had a look on the M5 mortorway cameras and its raining right down south to be expected but dry further north. I think watching those will be a good indication of whats in store

Staying up and watching the road outside will be a much better indication!

[gareth moo]

Raining in Truro!

6 degree difference in dew point across Cornwall. Plymouth -1c.

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Looking at radar I am only about 30 mins away so i rekon start should be here about midnight at the current speed so sod it im staying awake.

[alijoe]

Hi Benb just wondering how you heard it was snowing in Plymouth? Thanks

Sorry just saw it on SW thread, it was just rain 5 mins ago, so looking good!!

If you go into the southern./west regionals you will get all the updates there. they are also a very lovely bunch.

[Jack Wales]

I think a lot of people will be disappointed, this is looking to be a very marginal event. It appears that the snow will be reserved for locations chiefly above 250m and away from the coast. Current temp here up from 2c to 3c in the last hour. Elsewhere, Swansea 6, Barry 5, Cardiff 5, Cwmbran 2. It's just too mild in the populated areas. However some spots are looking more favourable e.g. Brynmawr 0, Brecon 1.

Rain already into west gower and dyfed.

[goosey007]

Got work at 6 and got to be in as alot of staff are in the válleys so doubt Ill be seeing them......looks like Ill have a busy day ha sud have an easy route to work in south monmouthshire....never get much snow in newport etc getting home in the evening sud be interesting as people just cant dříve in the snow ......Hope these choose not to dříve

Edited January 17, 2013 by goosey007

[TonyH]

I am very interested as to whether Llanelli will get a couple of inches, colleagues living in that area say they have never seen more than this before. Certainly a chance. Hopeful of 4 inches minimum here and preferrably 8 inches!

[Ginkrots]

Radar is looking more intense now thank god, a nice big orange blob heading right for S.E Wales if it goes to plan.

Edited January 17, 2013 by ginkrots

[bradymk]

Your all going to be running around the room with excitement once your weather stations report the temp drop after midnight, look at the metoffice high res model here and it shows well when temps drop http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/whitland#?tab=map&fcTime=1358420400&map=Temperature&zoom=8&lon=-4.13&lat=52.11

[Gavla]

omg whats happening rain or snow im off to bed otherwise what a waste of beer, everyone is so down can someone tell me im going to have snow otherwise im going to bed lol

[Marcus_surfer]

Your all going to be running around the room with excitement once your weather stations report the temp drop after midnight, look at the metoffice high res model here and it shows well when temps drop http://www.metoffice...-4.13&lat=52.11

i'll hold you to that one

[TonyH]

I think a lot of people will be disappointed, this is looking to be a very marginal event. It appears that the snow will be reserved for locations chiefly above 250m and away from the coast. Current temp here up from 2c to 3c in the last hour. Elsewhere, Swansea 6, Barry 5, Cardiff 5, Cwmbran 2. It's just too mild in the populated areas. However some spots are looking more favourable e.g. Brynmawr 0, Brecon 1.

Rain already into west gower and dyfed.

Colder uppers and DPs push in later in the night, could be marginal around the coasts for sure as it usually is, but with heavy enough precipitation it should readily turn to snow in Swansea and some other coastal areas though the morning.

Edited January 17, 2013 by TonyH

[soupsurfer7]

Calm down people! Just because it might be 5 degrees doesn't mean it's gonna stay that way!

[MKN]

Nervousness in here is funny ul all have 15cms + of snow in the next 12 hours

[Blackjack]

Temp still holding at 2.1c Dew Point 0.2C Winds ESE

[Scarlet_Snow]

I am very interested as to whether Llanelli will get a couple of inches, colleagues living in that area say they have never seen more than this before. Certainly a chance. Hopeful of 4 inches minimum here and preferrably 8 inches!

Tony in 2004 I measured 6 inches of snow from a pembrokeshire dangler, which is the most I've ever seen. We were very lucky that night since the streamer ran through Llanelli and some surrounding areas for many hours in the night. Apart from that 2 inches would of been the most I can remember since the start of the 90's.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Scarlet_Snow

[TonyH]

2.9c DP -0.1c here, temps stable all evening, so confident it will start as snow here.

[Hywel]

we have had light snow all day here. It is still coming down, tiny flakes. Radar not picking it up. There is about 3cm now

[TonyH]

Tony in 2004 I measured 6 inches off a pembrokeshire dangler, which is the most I've ever seen. We were very lucky that night since the streamer ran through Llanelli and some surrounding areas for many hours in the night. Apart from that 2 inches would of been the most I can remember since the start of the 90's.

Thanks memories are fallible as ever.

[Ginkrots]

@DerekTheWeather the valleys has run out of bread and milk before the snow even arrives #EveryoneHasGoneCrazy!!!pic.twitter.com/9xibiGyv

LOL