Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013>

[Wintrywooz]

Quick one from me, expected snowfall totals over the next 48 hours

Blue: 5-25cm of snowfall- Really dependant on orographic snowfall aiding intensity, a bit of a headache to see how much it will happen.

Yellow: 3-10cm of snow- Higher totals coming from showers pushing in during the early hours of Saturday morning

Orange: 5-20cm of snow- Showers should start pushing further inland later but will loose intensity in the early hours of Saturday morning due to a milder flow (relative)

erm what about Lincolnshire?

[Cheese Rice]

Not sure I agree with that.

I would have your

orange area 0-10cm

yellow area: 0-7cm

blue area: 0-5cm.

The front was always going to fragment and loose intensity. I'm expecting orographic snowfall to occur as the front pushes over the Pennines around 2pm, it will aid intensification significantly. Over 20cm across high ground above say 300m, even lower levels should see between 5-20cm of snow. Eastern coastal areas are already seeing heavy snow showers so unless somewhere is extremely unlucky I'd be surprised if they saw 0cm.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[Zak 92]

Looks like its almost at spalding!

[Harsh Climate]

Seems strange but we want that band not to make it any further north, or to completley peter out.

It's only purpouse now would be to stop showers pushing all the way inland. Good convection going on to the east now and that's where I will be watching over the coming hours.

[cowdog]

The NAE 06z update is good for tonight

The NAE was wrong about the progression of the front even at T3 hours (9 am) so its fair to say bin it as a guide for precipitation amounts for the North.

[Adam lufc]

Well well well my forecast is holding firm and thaw soon to take place. Sun coming out north leeds and temp rocketing up!! Oh dear oh dear.

[Harsh Climate]

The front was always going to fragment and loose intensity. I'm expecting orographic snowfall to occur as the front pushes over the Pennines around 2pm, it will aid intensification significantly. Over 20cm across high ground above say 300m, even lower levels should see between 5-20cm of snow. Eastern coastal areas are already seeing heavy snow showers so unless somewhere is extremely unlucky I'd be surprised if they saw 0cm.

I hope your right mate and if you are an extremley good call, but I just can't see that happening.

Snow showers are hit and miss so some areas in your orange zone could quite easily see no accumulations.

[Aaron]

TAF for LBA still says heavy snow after 2pm, bizarre.

[Machu Picchu]

Honestly we are going to get something out of this weekend, and I think I now know why the Mets website is now saying Heavy snow for my location from Saturday evening yet its not on any of the models.

Think the convection is going to start about then. The positioning of the low will mean moderate easterly winds will start about then, and as soon as they do the North Sea train will begin. If the easterly's start by then would have some serious snow fall from the showers that get created.

I think we'll do ok today and through the night, METO has it not starting here until late afternoon, i was just hoping to see a full snow day as i don't work Fridays.

I honestly think this is going to be a good weekend, whether it pans out as forecast is anyone's guess but comparing the current conditions to the drab zonal borefest

we had until last week just shows how well we're really doing for real winter weather.

Thanks for the reply CD.

[sparky1972]

Looks like its almost at spalding!

nope, becoming brighter, lol

[Bradowl]

Light Snow falling here in Rotherham now.

[Harsh Climate]

Well well well my forecast is holding firm and thaw soon to take place. Sun coming out north leeds and temp rocketing up!! Oh dear oh dear.

If your wrong and you do get some good snow, you will be going right under my ignore button for all ya needless moaning. It's too early to say game over and as for a thaw, you can't be serioussssse?

[Zak 92]

nope, becoming brighter, lol

http://www.meteorada.../home/maps?bg=0

Just south of you

Edited January 18, 2013 by Zak 92

[Les Penniston]

very fine and small flakes here at thurlby near Bourne

[Hodgheg]

Showers now gathering off the east coast. I have a terrible feeling west yorks will be sandwiched in a gap of no precip though.

[Machu Picchu]

Too busy reading and typing i forgot to look out the window where the snow is picking up nicely and getting harder.

[Imp81]

Im liking the look of the feature monday,if it comes off it appears to affect most of our region later that day and monday too , throw in convective potential im optimistic, still think something will happen today just more modest, the band NAE aside looked to weaken a few days ago always looked to be a PM event for us, upside is it means cold is well entrenched this front struggling so much today. keep the cold the snow will come! if of use im just outside region working in Retford :s darkening up a bit odd flakes in wind and -1

[ITSY]

The potential on Monday is a combination of old frontal (occluded) snowfall (over France) combining with a cold Easterly wind, so the two interact and intensify as they merge - which SOME models, not all but SOME, suggest could happen somewhere over central northern England. That could produce some very notable snow and is totally different to today's warm front pushing up against cold air and breaking up, since the event on Monday (were it to happen of course) would arrive out of the colder air and would therefore gather pace with it, rather than break up against it.

And for what its worth, I agree with John1990, West Yorks could be sandwiched between the two 'events' today and get nothing. (BUT DON'T WORRY, we are only half way through winter).

Edited January 18, 2013 by ITSY

[Mark Lowry]

A few flakes now falling around Sheffield airport. Clouds look heavy.

[Machu Picchu]

The potential on Monday is a combination of old frontal (occluded) snowfall (over France) combining with a cold Easterly wind, so the two interact and intensify as they merge - which SOME models, not all but SOME, suggest could happen somewhere over central northern England. That could produce some very notable snow and is totally different to today's warm front pushing up against cold air and breaking up, since the event on Monday (were it to happen of course) would arrive out of the colder air and would therefore gather pace with it, rather than break up against it.

[sunny scunny]

Well well well my forecast is holding firm and thaw soon to take place. Sun coming out north leeds and temp rocketing up!! Oh dear oh dear.

According to wundermap it's blow freezing for most of our region and i would expect it to stay that way throughout the day,also will lots of cloud cover there will be little or no thaw whatsoever and most places will get a top up at some point.

[Aaron]

Hoping the front doesn't make it here now, imagine if we were under that rash of showers moving over the N Yorkshire coast - we could easily pick up a few inches from that! Useless decaying front.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Aaron

[Harsh Climate]

Hoping the front doesn't make it here now, imagine if we were under that rash of showers moving over the N Yorkshire coast - we could easily pick up a few inches from that! Useless decaying front.

We could do with the wind going more easterly too. Look at those showers off the east coast explode over the last 30 minutes.

[tugster31]

Looks like its almost at spalding!

The odd small flake so far not enough to say its snowing, wind is quite breesey so hopefully it will be here soon

[Adam lufc]

Partly cloudy skies with the sun trying to poke through. Nice covering. Temp upto -1c. Massive potential Sunday night! Will it pay off...

Parts of Portugal and Spain are getting soaked!!