Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 20/01/13 ----->

[Ginkrots]

Hmm M.O heavy snow forecast Wednesday morning now? Still nothing for tomorrow, no rain sleet or snow. Seems a bit all over the place at the moment!

[keithlucky]

Hmm M.O heavy snow forecast Wednesday morning now? Still nothing for tomorrow, no rain sleet or snow. Seems a bit all over the place at the moment!

Yes 2 to 5cm we got a easterly wind then,this weather watching is like chasing the end of the rainbow Lol

[snowy36]

These are the numbers for today.

For Wednesday00

0z-30

6z-26

12z-24

18z-10

It's one of the met's best models but it's rather erratic.

Edited January 21, 2013 by snowy36

[Gavla]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY High uncertainty tomorrow. Hopefully most of our areas stay snow-free until later tomorrow eve, when it spreads NE fairly rapidly.

-------

Of course by his area, he means SW England/West Country area.

Is this system moving quicker than expected then as i thought this system was likely to move east then west and stall or is that wishful thinking, im sure someone on here said this might happen.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Gavla

[snowy36]

Got to admit Dogs dinner GFS might have been more on the ball with this.

[keithlucky]

Is this system moving quicker than expected then as i thought this system was likely to move east then west and stall or is that wishful thinking, im sure someone on here said this might happen.

Another front pushing north on a easterly feed tomorrow night ,tonight washes snow away tomorrow replaces it with a fresh lot.. Edited January 21, 2013 by keithlucky

[Gavla]

im getting confused now so not really expecting anything tomorow day but in the night and wed, oh well this is what makes it fun i suppose

[Panayiotis]

18z much better for shorter term snow!

[marclt]

so much for this cold snap. everytime is snows is preceeded by rain!

any chance of the beast from the east actually returning (after the mild spell forecast for the weekend)?

[jenko]

trying its hardest to snow here at ystrad

[J10]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@jgyap57: Hell of a complex occlusion incoming - may even come down to "nowcasting" Oh, unquestionably so, given convective components...

Thius is much trickier to forecast compared to last Friday, was a basic front pushing from South West

This is a very small developing low pressure system, compare the forecast position of the low at 06 Tuesday from the last 4 NAE runs.

http://expert-images...012206_2112.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2100.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2018.gif

If a severe weather warning was issued on 12Hz run, and the 06Hz run came to fruition, then the snowfall may be completely in the wrong place. Very difficult forecast tonight.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

is the Pressure from tonight's version.

Looking at the pressure chart for 12HZ tomorrow, which shows the difference better.

http://expert-images...012212_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012212_2112.gif

http://www.weatheron...301211800&HH=18

The whole system is further south.

I hope it delivers, which my hopes are falling, otherwise it would have been better to have had dry colder weather and less of a thaw.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Jackone

[snowy36]

Oh well we will know our fate early tomm, the heavest precipitation is forecast between 6 and 12 tomm morning. Not much after that.

Edited January 21, 2013 by snowy36

[pyrotech]

Yes GFS 12z today was very similar to NMM and had worst snow later than NAE starting tomorrow night. seems this is a total watch it happen event. I think some places will be lucky and others not so, Could even be a case of mass disapointment tomorrow morning changing to mega excitement tomorrow evening. It really is that bad to forecast, models are in total dasarray

[Cymro]

This constant thaw is quite worrying here and Im at 250m - Snow falling off glass house/shed roofs in huge sheets and becoming patchy in many places, and if this doesnt deliver tomorrow, then it's a pretty poor end really

[keithlucky]

Yes GFS 12z today was very similar to NMM and had worst snow later than NAE starting tomorrow night. seems this is a total watch it happen event. I think some places will be lucky and others not so, Could even be a case of mass disapointment tomorrow morning changing to mega excitement tomorrow evening. It really is that bad to forecast, models are in total dasarray

Yet they all confident of a mild breakdown 4 days time cold is gone rain sweeping all models overdo LP coming in Saturday ,expect surprises!come the weekend.

[matty lfc]

Steady light rain up here but it does feel a good bit colder than earlier.

[keithlucky]

Reports coming in from S West thread of back edge snow from the front Nae good for Wales tomorrow NAE still showing the front stalls over Wales

[snowy36]

I

Reports coming in from S West thread of back edge snow from the front Nae good for Wales tomorrow NAE still showing the front stalls over Wales

If we are to get a surprise then it will come then, a shift of fifty miles north could make a big difference. The one problem is that if it comes north then the dew points will be a big problem.

Edited January 21, 2013 by snowy36

[snowy36]

Lets hope Lady luck is on our side.

[Gorky101]

dew point and air temp dropping nice now hope this bodes well for later, that precipitation looks like it will hit our area much earlier than predicted

[chubbystuff]

I have learnt so much from you guys on the forum my mates laugh and ask when I became a weather expert I tell them I get a more reliable forecast from

you guys, so I am going to ask a question might be a bit silly .... I was told if there are rings around the moon it is a sure sign of bad weather? or is it an old wives tale.

Thanks in advance to anyone who answers

[bradymk]

dew point and air temp dropping nice now hope this bodes well for later, that precipitation looks like it will hit our area much earlier than predicted

AT -0.4 DP 0c here which are conditions suitable for snow however i think the precip coming in will be freezing rain if anything and not snow apart from well inland.

[Gorky101]

AT -0.4 DP 0c here which are conditions suitable for snow however i think the precip coming in will be freezing rain if anything and not snow apart from well inland.

dew at -1 and air temp -1 at 70m above sea level the snow event on friday began with less favourable variables, still feel it could be snow to rain here nae suggests you guys out west could be favoured sooo marginal...

[keithlucky]

I have learnt so much from you guys on the forum my mates laugh and ask when I became a weather expert I tell them I get a more reliable forecast from

you guys, so I am going to ask a question might be a bit silly .... I was told if there are rings around the moon it is a sure sign of bad weather? or is it an old wives tale.

Thanks in advance to anyone who answers

Can be sign of cirrus stratus meaning usually rain on the way !

[TonyH]

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

is the Pressure from tonight's version.

Looking at the pressure chart for 12HZ tomorrow, which shows the difference better.

http://expert-images...012212_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012212_2112.gif

http://www.weatheron...301211800&HH=18

The whole system is further south.

I hope it delivers, which my hopes are falling, otherwise it would have been better to have had dry colder weather and less of a thaw.

Oh well it will all go over the weekend in any case