Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 20/01/13 ----->

[keithlucky]

Oh well it will all go over the weekend in any case

Tony what"s wrong with the GFS is it on cocaine?

[gareth moo]

Enthralling day of model watching.

Still no great triangulation from the million dollar computers.

If the professional guys still have no idea, we've currently got 48 hours of exciting nowcasting to come.

OK the PPN totals are less exciting on the 18z NAE, but i think we know that with the LP in the mix to our South, it could spring us a great surprise or two. Thoroughly looking forward to it myself!

[chubbystuff]

Can be sign of cirrus stratus meaning usually rain on the way !

Thanks for the answer , not sure it's the answer I wanted as the moon had rings around it earlier likely to be a rain event for me then

[benb]

I have learnt so much from you guys on the forum my mates laugh and ask when I became a weather expert I tell them I get a more reliable forecast from

you guys, so I am going to ask a question might be a bit silly .... I was told if there are rings around the moon it is a sure sign of bad weather? or is it an old wives tale.

Thanks in advance to anyone who answers

I'm under the impression that if the ring is getting smaller then the weather is going to get worse, if it's getting bigger then more settled weather arriving- but not 100% on that!

I'm also led to believe that flickering stars in a clear sky are frequently a precursor to poor weather- showing strong high altitude winds...

[Panayiotis]

Can be sign of cirrus stratus meaning usually rain on the way !

It means the clouds contain ice crystals, and actually means snow is on the way! It happens because light from (actually reflected) the moon bounces off these ice crystals at 22 degrees causing the halo effect. Edited January 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

Oh well it will all go over the weekend in any case

True

Just then to throw the cat among the pigeons, tonight's NMM shows precipitation much heavier than before.

It has very heavy and small areas of precipitation moving NW through Wales tomorrow am (5-7am) , and exiting Cardigan Bay,

Not expecting that much though now, perhaps i'll be pleasantly surprised come morning. Any fresh covering even 1cm would be welcome.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

True

Just then to throw the catch among the pigeons, tonight's NMM shows precipitation much heavier than before.

Front now developing nicely now Jackone.

[bradymk]

18z NAE different again = 4/5 different runs in a row = huge uncertainty = MetO have no real clue = radar watching and a bit of ole nowcasting. Honestly anyone along the south coast of Wales may see a good bit of snow, too much inconsistency to pinpoint where and when. I for one will be praying for a bit of snow before a dry few days arrive, its too green here for my liking

[J10]

Front now developing nicely now Jackone.

We shall see,

Nos Da, too much model watching from me tonight, good luck everyone.

[Marcus_surfer]

Temp steady at 1C here need it a bit lower, had some hail earlier, hope we dont get freezing rain really dont need that

[Baldy Snowman]

Thanks for the answer , not sure it's the answer I wanted as the moon had rings around it earlier likely to be a rain event for me then

keep yer chin up. one of my abiding memories before the massive blizzard in 82 was immediately before it, yep, rings around the moon.

[chubbystuff]

thanks benb and panayiotis its really quite pretty what ever the hidden meaning

[pyrotech]

It means the clouds contain ice crystals, and actually means snow is on the way! It happens because light from (actually reflected) the moon bounces off these ice crystals at 22 degrees causing the halo effect.

Its actually very high cloud with ice crystals, at the height we are talking you can get ice crystals there at almost any time of year. Its not a sign of snow unless you get a halo from low level cloud caused by ice crystals. High level cloud often runs ahead of weather fronts often 100s of miles infront, especially warm fronts.

[Panayiotis]

Clear skie here in Cardiff, temp at -1 with dp at -2, hopefully anything that falls should be snow.

[Buzz]

Can be sign of cirrus stratus meaning usually rain on the way !

It means that precipitation is possible - that precipitation could be rain or, of course, snow ..... if the conditions are right:

http://earthsky.org/space/what-makes-a-halo-around-the-moon

[pyrotech]

Thunder snow reports in the South West forum

[Cymro]

Wrth edrych ar y radar mae na glwstwr trwm o gawodydd yn nesau tuag at Gaerfyrddin, ai eira sydd yn disgyn neu eirlaw yn y mannau hyn? Unrhyw adroddiadau?

Looking at the radar and there's a cluster of showers edging near Carmarthen, Is it snow or sleet falling in these areas? Any reports?

[Gavla]

Thunder snow reports in the South West forum

beat me too it was just about to post this, good signs.

[welshgritter]

Griited tonight. Caerphilly had 2 inch dump between 8pm-8.30pm. Come from nowhere. Not good when the site had just been snow cleared !!!!

[gareth moo]

Thunder snow reports in the South West forum

Yes, i was reading that. Also snowing in Looe down on the coast at sea level. IF we get the PPN - good signs..

[alijoe]

I would just LOVE to see thunder snow.... looks amazing when I have seen it on the internet, oh fingers crossed.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Temperature wayy too high here at the moment 2.3c...though it is dropping slowly!

[swales]

Temperature wayy too high here at the moment 2.3c...though it is dropping slowly!

Pretty high here for my liking as well

Air temp +1.3c DP +0.3c

[Ginkrots]

Precipitation intensity in the SW is crazy! I spot a 96mm/hour :o I wonder if it'll reach us with any similar intensity

Edited January 21, 2013 by ginkrots

[gareth moo]

Current radar has the occlusion much further North East than NAE18z had it at midnight.

Will it make it?

Will it intensify over the BC?

Will it stall?

Could be a 'yes' to all 3. Not a big area but somebody's going to do well here me thinks!!