South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 00z------------->

[TwisterGirl81]

Thunder & hail in Exeter and at the moment it's quite dark

[cerneman]

Breezy with cold rain, falling on snow cover making it very slippy underfoot

[Beast of Plympton]

This is strange, its heavy snow but falling as slush on top of the laying snow. Why would that be??

Edited January 22, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Blimey I have a feeling we are gonna see loads, honestly peeps , that stuff is so intense in the channel , and with the latest nae looking heavier and more organised , another night of partying I see?!!

[AWD]

AWD what is the WBFL over dartmoor out of interest?

Here is the GFS WBFL guidance for 09:00;

Although I think that might be a bit OTT. There isn't one for the high res models such as the NAE etc.

[chris55]

Still snowing Wednesday morning for some in the north west of the region.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Very good Nae for North Somerset , Increasingly Heavy Snow should move in during this afternoon and continue over night .... Let's hope it's right ...

[Catacol]

6z NAE snowfall,

+12

+18

+24

Yes - a good looking spread here and I notice outside that temperatures are on their way back down. Not holding my breath though - the NAE predictor for Friday last week was way out in this region, and in the last 48 hours it has jumped around all over the place! Fingers crossed.

[theprophecyman]

Looking at the charts, the assessment of 3-6 cm seems very low

Possibly a rain to snow event??? Although I'm only guessing :-)

[Wilxy]

Thunder & hail in Exeter and at the moment it's quite dark

Just had a look on the radar that cell and strike was clear

[Catacol]

Looking at the charts, the assessment of 3-6 cm seems very low

Possibly... but it will need to stick first. Surfaces down here are very wet and the air is not especially close to freezing. My gut feeling for Somerset/Devon is that we will end up with slush but we will see. Weather will do what its doing to do - surprises do happen.

Edited January 22, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[theprophecyman]

Still snowing Wednesday morning for some in the north west of the region.

I posted this yesterday evening after looking at the 18z models....., seems to hang around for a while.....

"I might be reading these wrong, but looking at the GFS 18z it has snow (albeit light) IMBY (Frome) from Tuesday 6pm through to Thursday 3am!!!

Surely that can't be right??"

[Nights King]

I posted this yesterday evening after looking at the 18z models....., seems to hang around for a while.....

"I might be reading these wrong, but looking at the GFS 18z it has snow (albeit light) IMBY (Frome) from Tuesday 6pm through to Thursday 3am!!!

Surely that can't be right??"

That looks like more than 3 - 6 cm for alot of the region? unless they are expecting rain at start to hinder snow settling straight away?

thanks Awd those levels are quite hight I presume they will fall back down a little this afternoon? Seems encouraging though that over 300m they have snow in an 800ish WBFL...

[Gibby]

My main concern is rising pressure. Pressure is rising steadily over the area at the moment and a backing of the winds at cloud level is very noticeable keeping the main band of precipitation over the English Channel moving in a NW and probably later West direction back out to sea. Further East and North may not see much unless other developments through the day translate into something more akin for our area.

[Beast of Plympton]

That looks like more than 3 - 6 cm for alot of the region? unless they are expecting rain at start to hinder snow settling straight away?

thanks Awd those levels are quite hight I presume they will fall back down a little this afternoon? Seems encouraging though that over 300m they have snow in an 800ish WBFL...

Don't be too fooled, its heavy but not settling very well. It is settling but not as much as you would expect it to be.

[Bumpkin]

I think someone has pressed the default button and its back to drizzly rain.

[offerman]

Had fresh covering of snow overnight, about 1/2 cm feels warmer at the moment but they often say that before it snows.

Prophecyman, looking good for our neck of the wood.s

[Beast of Plympton]

Does anyone know how quickly this would bring the freezing level down??

[AWD]

Ian has updated guys. Looking good for northern areas.

[offerman]

AWD, what did he say apart from that?

Thanks.

[Nights King]

Does anyone know how quickly this would bring the freezing level down??

Depends or intensity and your dew point I think, lower the better.

[latitude]

Its amazing, all this talk of more snow, ice and freezing overnight temperatures!

All week the forecast has been for temps to drop at night from -2 to -6 (ish). The temp in my location hasent gone below -0.9!

That was the coldest night since 12th Jan when this all kicked off. Most nights have been just above freezing!

Still waiting for the cold spell to start.

Could Ian F explain why the forecasted temps are so way off the mark? This is quite imby I know.

[Bumpkin]

My main concern is rising pressure. Pressure is rising steadily over the area at the moment and a backing of the winds at cloud level is very noticeable keeping the main band of precipitation over the English Channel moving in a NW and probably later West direction back out to sea. Further East and North may not see much unless other developments through the day translate into something more akin for our area.

I've just ran the animation on the radar and the band seems to go north and then turn nw.

[AWD]

AWD, what did he say apart from that?

Thanks.

W COUNTRY Areas more likely for snow as potentially troublesome tonight are: E Som; Wilts (e.g. M4 corridor); B&NES; Bristol; S Glos; Glos

W COUNTRY UPDATE: Further area of snow expected to spread N across many parts of @bbcpointswest area later this afternoon, eve & tonight....

W COUNTRY CONT'D Anticipate further 2-5cm, locally 10cm, to accumulate from this eve to Weds AM, w associated ice threat / poss disruption..

W COUNTRY Given continued forecast confidence issues, best advice is to work on precautionary approach & assume tonight could be 'messy'...!

Edited January 22, 2013 by AWD

[Coast]

06z GFS still holding out for something away from the South coast:

Turning to rain quite readily away from the North later: