South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 8th February 2013>

[Lampostwatcher]

I think something's brewing !!

Susan Powell wouldn't go past Saturday again

And she gave us the eyes

[alexisj9]

I think something's brewing !!

Susan Powell wouldn't go past Saturday again

And she gave us the eyes

Question is, is she a mildy or a coldy?

[Spur33]

Question is, is she a mildy or a coldy?

Always seemed a mildy to me

[snowking]

ECMWF det continues to paint a similar picture WRT snowfall - only difference is that it also incorporates E Kent (presumably picking up the flow from the continent)

Very mixed outlook remains, but certainly for East Anglia there is currently support from the UKMO GM, ECMWF and GEM for snowfall....arguably to my eye the NAE 12z would have shown a similar story too. 18z rolling out soon.

For those further south, the hope is that we see further SW corrections. At some stage, the GFS is going to have to step in to line (we would certainly hope so anyway!) with the rest of the global output. If it doesn't then it does a little to redeem itself, however if it does, then we should be able to start drawing a clearer picture of the potential (owing to the fact we can then see more data, including WBFL's etc.)

SK

[john pike]

we have e.c.m

g.f.s

now we have the p.i.g

http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-weather-pig-spleen

cannot do any worse

[Nikkib74]

MKSA I'm fully prepared to hit the naughty step but this really made me chuckle. Thought it might lighten the mood... So you see, it's a positive post?

Oh, and it's kinda rubbish, dampish, too warmish bleurgh here, but on a positive note, I plan to drink enough vodka to convince myself it's snowing!

[atrow]

so how's it looking for me I'm slight North west of London

[lawrenk]

what's your build got to do with it?

[crazy_diamond]

, but on a positive note, I plan to drink enough vodka to convince myself it's snowing!

Sounds like a plan! Might lace my Lemsip with some!

CD

Edited February 8, 2013 by crazy_diamond

[DAVID SNOW]

I think something's brewing !!

Susan Powell wouldn't go past Saturday again

And she gave us the eyes

Stoned?

[Guest bjaykent]

The GFS (Great Findus Supplier) is under starters orders and there off!

[Snowman31]

gfs looks slightly better to me i think

[abruzzi spur]

ah well, fire is roaring away, glass of sloe gin is reflecting the flames, cold outside. Macro level: taking account of computer generated charts, could be better. Fire/sloe gin/general wintry feel level: not bad!

AS

Edited February 8, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[snowking]

Yep correction SW-wards on the GFS 18z:

This should be the start of it coming in to line with the UKMO/ECM prognosis

SK

[Mac_SE]

Phlegmatic about Sunday's rain/sleet/wet snow event. It's not even really that noteworthy a cold spell and we're really grabbing at straws if we're all clutching at seeing some flakes of miserable wet snow. Wake me up when a proper easterly's on the cards.

[Nick F]

Low fractionally further south on the 18z on Sunday, but still would turn out a damp squib for much of the SE.

[Snowman31]

Low fractionally further south on the 18z on Sunday, but still would turn out a damp squib for much of the SE.

Can we expect any more changes? is there still realistically time for things still change in your opinion nick?

Edited February 8, 2013 by Snowman31

[ChartViewer]

Low fractionally further south on the 18z on Sunday, but still would turn out a damp squib for much of the SE.

Yes Nick rain all the way except very higher ground...shame...was looking to a sledge Sunday/Monday and a day off!

[Average Joe]

that reminds me,must pick up some Butlins brochures next time i'm in town!

Ahh, the ever lovely Helen Young!! I had the pleasure of socialising with her via a mutual friend on several occasions. A very lovely lady!!

[10 Days Away]

I think something's brewing !!

Susan Powell wouldn't go past Saturday again

And she gave us the eyes

Oi you, four eyes !

[Eskimo]

Didn't I say earlier that we'd see an upgrade for the 18z?

[manutdmatt1986]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8710/gfs-2-48_opz7.png - Shame the GFS precipitation charts are rubbish :-(

[Nick F]

Can we expect any more changes? is there still realistically time for things still change in your opinion nick?

Maybe, would take very little adjustment further south and more of the SE could be at risk of snow late Sunday into early Monday. A closer look at the 18z GFS suggests that you would not have to be too far north of London to see snow 129dam line, which IMO best marks rain/snow boundary (850-1000mb thickness) Thames Estuary NW to E Midlands Sunday night. Wouldn't take much correction SW.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Nick F

[manutdmatt1986]

Didn't I say earlier that we'd see an upgrade for the 18z?

Yeah, our rain might be colder now

[snowking]

GFS 18z more in line with the ECMWF projections now for later Sunday:

Notice it gives some snowfall to E Kent too - very similar snowfall distribution to the 12z ECMWF projection

SK