Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[weirpig]

In regards to the ecm, can anyone tell me were i could find the pricipitation charts please?

[ANYWEATHER]

Joe B thinking the change is on the way.  Lets hope so...

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/420993211914391552/photo/1

Yes ,I have a huge respect for Mr Jo./B  .Very clever guy, but now one predicting weather will always be right!

[weather eater]

In terms of the UKMO output at T144hrs yes it doesn't show an easterly at that precise time but I can't believe any UK forecaster at HQ won't say but if it verified it would likely show at worst trough disruption sending energy se towards the Med and a good chance of an easterly after that; Either the UKMO have just ditched their raw output and think its rogue or the Twittergate re UKMO G saying no was incorrect.

Don't know about you Nick but the UKMO 120hr and 144hr charts never fill me with much confidence they never have.

[Panayiotis]

In regards to the ecm, can anyone tell me were i could find the pricipitation charts please?

Remember to check what run it is (top right)..this is for the 12z

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[bobbydog]

ahh... mr winter......

 

 

 

 

i've been expecting you......

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

ECM 12z ensembles show this is far from a done deal. It verges on disappointing.

 

That's fine as the mean showing heavy snow on  the northern flank of the low centre.You still have to be wary of the mean with the set up, that gets washed out by the less amplified solutions, even if you take it at face value its not a worry.

 

If the ECM stinges hadn't pulled the ECM postage stamps we could have had  a better idea of the overall trend ie how many show easterlies , how many show trough disrupting through the UK etc.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM is excellent tonight......to 192 hours. Thereafter we're going to need a few things going our way in order to extend the potential wintry spell of weather. Firstly, we need to see the wedge of heights extend as far west as possible. This will act as insurance and buy us more time to embed a cold flow, along with helping to disrupt the jet energy heading across the Atlantic as part of the converging PV energy towards the Canadian sector towards days 9-10-11 (this issue really can be overcome but we need to get lucky). Also, in this instance, the Atlantic high is shown to hinder us instead of help us as its surge N steers LP over the blocking rather than it being encourage to dig S in the Atlantic to reinforce the block and propagate the cold westwards. We look to lose the heights over Europe...we certainly don't want them back again!

 

As Nick S and Nick (Bluearmy) have been at pains to say, what happens upstream is crucial to how this all plays out. We really could do with a second wave of amplification to allow this to become a 'spell' rather than a 'snap'.

[mulzy]

ECM 12z ensembles show this is far from a done deal. It verges on disappointing.

 

 

 

Yep, slight downgrade on the ECM ensembles.  Maybe it's just a blip, but this has put a dampener on things - time will tell as ever.  MOGREPS may be leading the way here...

Edited January 8, 2014 by mulzy

[mcweather]

Again as with last nights ECM it will be interesting to see where the latter stages sit within the ensemble suite

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM 12z ensembles show this is far from a done deal. It verges on disappointing.

 

Im afraid Ireland is last stop on the track Eagle so you'll be the last to benefit and always at the mercy of the Atlantic in these bordeline setups..

[Man With Beard]

ECM mean doesn't quite bring in cold uppers for everyone - though on an easterly the uppers are not quite so critical?

[That ECM]

We could really do with Fergies input here im getting mixed messages!

. He gave it a few pages back.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yep, significant downgrade on the ECM ensembles.  Maybe it's just a blip, but this has put a dampener on things - time will tell as ever.  MOGREPS may be leading the way here...

What significant downgrade?????

What are you seeing here?

[shaky]

Yep, significant downgrade on the ECM ensembles.  Maybe it's just a blip, but this has put a dampener on things - time will tell as ever.  MOGREPS may be leading the way here...

are the ensembles out yet or do you mean the mean chart!!

[bluearmy]

ECM 12z ensembles show this is far from a done deal. It verges on disappointing.

 

 

 

jeez eagle, if that disappointing, where have you been for the past six weeks, siberia ?

 

there is clearly a spread on the ens at day 7 which keeps some of the runs further north. given that the 12z delivered sod all frontal precip to south herts, i quite fancy those troughs being a bit closer in the medium term. a continental flow and subzero uppers is fine.

[Met4Cast]

If the ECM stinges hadn't pulled the ECM postage stamps we could have had  a better idea of the overall trend ie how many show easterlies , how many show trough disrupting through the UK etc.

 

Are these not the postage stamps?

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[Panayiotis]

Can I ask where everyone has got their information about the MOGREPS not being 'on board'?

Edited January 8, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Cloud 10]

Again as with last nights ECM it will be interesting to see where the latter stages sit within the ensemble suite

 

 

Some scatter in the 12z ECM ensembles,but again the operational and control runs 

go with the cold cluster.

 

[Panayiotis]

Are these not the postage stamps?

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

Only up to 120hrs

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's actually a bit of promise at 240 hours tonight. There must be a cluster going for a second bout of LP disruption after the initial episode

 

 

May be 20-25% for now but it's possible this could increase.

[mulzy]

What significant downgrade?????

What are you seeing here?

 

Significant may be too strong a word, but this has downgraded compared to the 0z ensembles - the short De Bilt temperature ensembles clearly shows two main clusters - so it's essentially boom or bust (50/50)

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Edited January 8, 2014 by mulzy

[Jimmy0127]

We could really do with Fergies input here im getting mixed messages!

 

I'm imagining that, given the timeframe and the spread of the ensemble output (that I've seen at least), Ian's input would have to be a mixed message anyway at the moment.

 

Especially given the amount of scrutiny we put his words under on this forum!

[weather eater]

I think it's really sad that there are folk on here who would be happy to see the majority on here miss out on a taste of wintry weather at long last, it's sad that we can't all accept whatever the weather decides to do in the spirit of fairness, there is always this mean streak from a minority.

I very popular post frosty but who is it you are talking about because I've seen no posts of that nature in this thread are they are in the mood thread?

Edited January 8, 2014 by weather eater

[Biensie]

I think it's really sad that there are folk on here who would be happy to see the majority on here miss out on a taste of wintry weather at long last, it's sad that we can't all accept whatever the weather decides to do in the spirit of fairness, there is always this mean streak from a minority.

 

I've never had so many people on 'ignore' in my preferences! Don't let them get you down Frosty, you have been our hope on the mildest of days!

[Long haul to mild]

I have to say that I hold no truck with mean charts derived from ensembles. Just as a rogue high number in a list of low numbers will skew the mean, so will a mild and less amplified solution do the same to a weather chart.