Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[bobbydog]

As usual, as soon as a cold spell becomes a reasonable likelihood, people start telling us that it will only last for two days blah blah blah.Ian F's post earlier was very valid; IF we get a cold setup, it is likely to be a lot harder to shift that the models suggest; and almost certainly much tougher than the tired and predictable reset to zonality shown on the GFS 12z.The irony is that those who are trying to predict the end are the same ones saying it may not even happen to begin with! If they are correct in that we can't be sure of what is happening in 5 or 6 days, then their predictions of what is going to happen in 10 days time are not worth the screen they have been typed on to!

 

very true.

 

even if it only lasts a day, we will at least have had a chance this winter, to look out of the window and shout "yay!!! its snowing!!!"

[Cheshire Freeze]

One thing i must say ( and not be a negative nelly ) but there is a large consensus in the ENS for it to turn milder after the 5-7 day window with almost no runs having the temps below zero after this spell.

 

Obviously very far out but not what you would like to see.

 

Precisely. Room for upgrading there though....upstream shenanigans permitting!

[bluearmy]

the extended ecm ens as ever, crank up the atlantic jet and just get it across the uk by day 14/15. i guess as a mean chart, thats fairly conclusive but even late on there are some hints of energy splitting north. once the block has retreated back ne, we are left with a euro trough, an atlantic high and a renewed jet coming off eastern canada. that brings the depressions around the top of the ridge and drops them into europe. at the moment, the track has our name on it which i suspect keeps us just the wrong side of the pfj with lee norwesters as a toppling ridge breaks between the features. however, if the pattern is being modelled 300 miles too far east, it would look quite different for us.  too uncertain to make a call - we need to pin down the easterly first !

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014010812/JN192-21.GIF?08-12

 

JMA 192-  looks nice- with the next upstream slider

 

Compared with the odd 192 ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECH1-192.GIF?08-0

 

GFS 18z Rolling

 

S

[bryan629]

I've never had so many people on 'ignore' in my preferences! Don't let them get you down Frosty, you have been our hope on the mildest of days!

very well said,,, you keep your upbeat posts coming frosty...glass half full and all .

your hard work and attention to what the output is showing is brilliant and im sure its not easy to put your posts together ... please keep up the good work

Edited January 8, 2014 by bryan629

[Long haul to mild]

Well, I'd love some cold weather, although I'd rather not have it last too long, as I need to travel around a lot :-) However, this is the model discussion thread. Although posts by Ian and a few others explain the apparent end of the cold, it is still in the models. It might be negative, unreliable and down right unlikely, but it is still shown and is therefore fair to discuss. I think Ian also said it isn't a done deal either. Going by posts here, there are going to be a lot of depressed people if it is a snap and I'd like to think a few posters are just wanting to prevent that ;-) So, be it 3 days or 7 or so weeks, let's just enjoy whatever comes. As long as it isn't flooding, of course ;-)

That's a fair point and model discussion usually allows for virtually any weather type to be highlighted; after all during our recent zonal attack there was always at least one GFS peturbation showing a stonking Easterly!However, I can't help but think that the "end is nigh before it's even begun" posts are made with just a little too much glee. Either that, or they are from people so pessimistic that their glass isn't empty, it's smashed all over the floor!

[winterof79]

Lets see what the pub run does, if its as good as the 12Z then this will be great, its always a worry if the pub run starts downgrading potential cold spells.

ARGHHHH...Lets look at the 00z output from all models rather than one that runs from different parameters 4 times daily.

I am getting deja vous.Note:there will be short waves and alsorts of complications before next week some good some not so good, be prepared and accept it

Edited January 8, 2014 by winterof79

[Iceni]

anniversary of last year then, 18th Jan '13 was a snowfest for me

 

I've noticed the models consistently mentioning that date 17th January for a couple of weeks. Just maybe......

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Iceni

[Earth Wind and Snow]

One thing i must say ( and not be a negative nelly ) but there is a large consensus in the ENS for it to turn milder after the 5-7 day window with almost no runs having the temps below zero after this spell.

 

Obviously very far out but not what you would like to see.

Very true Matty - however as Ian Ferguson stated earlier, the models are poor at modeling the breakdown of these blocking spells (assuming it happens) and often are too quick in modeling the breakdown - lets get the cold easterly in place first and then see what happens

 

EWS 

[weather eater]

Sorry about this I really am but I just have to post this again, Posts having a go at other members may be popular but they do nothing to aid the discussion they are not even humorous.

So a small plea because with the models trending in the way that they are this place is likely to get very busy. Can we just discuss the models without berating others just because their interpretation of the models is different from yours, or because they choose to highlight other areas other than cold and snow. For example when the pattern will or looks likely to break down, or berating them for not being positive enough, the clue to what this thread is about is in the title, positive and negative have nothing to do with it, and while people making posts just to wind others up is dull and we know they do, so also is reading through pages of tit for tat moans or having digs at people just because their preferred weather type is not the same as yours/bulk of members, it’s not a closed shop, there is not a rule that only coldies can post. OK I’m not a mod, so I guess that some members will think that I don’t have the right to make such a plea, but I am a member who would have a lot more posts to my name had I not got so bored and jaded with bickering, bickering which has a tendency to increase the more the models point at a potential cold spell.

[fergieweather]

 

Very true Matty - however as Ian Ferguson stated earlier, the models are poor at modeling the breakdown of these blocking spells (assuming it happens) and often are too quick in modeling the breakdown - lets get the cold easterly in place first and then see what happens EWS

All up for grabs really - both in terms of onset in any pronounced fashion (cautionary note, as it might not, based on some ENS members and varied products); secondly, the longevity; thirdly, the balance of dry/settled versus areas prone to PPN, wintry or otherwise. Until Factor 1 is entrenched in NWP, don't expect UKMO overdrive.... the other issues will follow in due course. We aren't getting excited about it all... yet. Still much output and nuances to unfold.

[stewfox]

Came home from work today to 30 new pages of model output discussion to catch up on , you kind of know from the start the main issue won't be a Bartlett !

 

Misses doesn't understand I have 'work to do' ie  read all the updates she can 'make the tea' I have been making it most of the winter 

Edited January 8, 2014 by stewfox

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS looking like the early stages of the ECM already at 60 hours i.e more pronounced pressure rise to N and Atlantic LP slightly further S&W.

Edited January 8, 2014 by CreweCold

[Paul]

Very busy in here tonight, for those who may be new to model watching - you can view all the major models here:

 

GFS

ECMWF

ECMWF EPS

GEFS Ensembles

UK Met

Fax

GEM

Compare The Big 4

 

Happy model watching

[Cloud 10]

The 18z has the mini dartboard low in the Atlantic digging a bit further south

compared to the 12z,so stronger ridge ahead of it.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010818/gfs-0-60.png?18

[Mucka]

So GFS off and running and already looking nice at 72h (No, I'm not kidding )

As for possible longevity I think Steve  M was a bit stingy with 3-5 days if it actually materialises as cold at the surface is likely for 5-7 days so a cold spell rather than snap for me though cold 850's maybe last for only a few days.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Mucka

[That ECM]

GFS looking like the early stages of the ECM already at 60 hours i.e more pronounced pressure rise to N and Atlantic LP slightly further S&W.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1615/gfsnh-0-72_zsz1.pngContinues.

[SMU]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1615/gfsnh-0-72_zsz1.pngContinues.

+1

 

Also the alignment of the small scandi shortwave is as the ECM- funnelling cold SW as opposed to blocking it-

 

Upgrades........

 

The train is coming.- 90% but the 18z doesn't want it to leave the stn

 

S

Edited January 8, 2014 by Steve Murr

[R.P. McMurphy]

Good run already.

#

Stronger heights to our North. Stronger block:

 

[fergieweather]

 

+1 Also the alignment of the small scandi shortwave is as the ECM- funnelling cold SW as opposed to blocking it- Upgrades........ The train is coming.- 90% S

Indeed - I was just thinking how close the two DET runs are on that same issue, Steve. Be interesting to see how the evolution unfolds now between the two models.

[Continental Climate]

Low not taking as southerly a course as it did on the 12z http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png!!

[tight isobar]

18z ramping things and a more pronounced block evolving already.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Not sure i like this run much less energy going south at 96...

[SMU]

 Indeed - I was just thinking how close the two DET runs are on that same issue, Steve. Be interesting to see how the evolution unfolds now between the two models.

 

Thanks--

 

GFS does well then goes & spoils it struggling to split the energy at 96 & morphing it through the high= probs around 100/150 to far east with the energy....

 

00zeds awaited with interest...

Edited January 8, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Purga]

Oh no.... 18z more progressive so far