Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Mucka]

Yes we could do without the delay because as we know one delay leads to another and then no cold spell.

Cracking GEM though, cold in place by 120h.

 

 

UKMO is delayed as usual.

[Stu_London]

The GEM has been consistent. Not a guarantee of success but a positive sign nonetheless.

[Mucka]

Oh dear, GFS ensembles look like they are flipping mild. First major wobble under way but will UKMO and ECM cure the nerves?

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mucka

[SMU]

Morning -

Early worms will caught the significant shift thus far in the longivity of the cold from the GFS - out to day 15 , and the GEM to day 10 and beyond-

The GFS continues is volatile nature but is an ok run 6/10

The GEM which has been TOP of the 6 day stats above ECM in the last week is epic from day 5 and deterministically shows great continued intrarun continuity.

Heavy beefy snow showers from day 5 merging into periods of snow day 6 & 7.

Lets hope the ECM gets out the bed on the right side this morning......

S

[NorthernRab]

Oh dear, GFS ensembles look like they are flipping mild. First major wobble under way but will UKMO and ECM cure the nerves?

 

Depends who for though, ens show temperatures around freezing for the Highlands with some scatter in FI as is to be expected! 

 

 

 

 

Edit: Wrong ens, my mistake. Far too early for me!

Edited January 9, 2014 by NorthernRab

[shaky]

Morning -Early worms will caught the significant shift thus far in the longivity of the cold from the GFS - out to day 15 , and the GEM to day 10 and beyond-The GFS continues is volatile nature but is an ok run 6/10The GEM which has been TOP of the 6 day stats above ECM in the last week is epic from day 5 and deterministically shows great continued intrarun continuity.Heavy beefy snow showers from day 5 merging into periods of snow day 6 & 7.Lets hope the ECM gets out the bed on the right side this morning......S

apparently gf ensembles aint all that!!Could we see a flip steve?

[Mucka]

Depends who for though, ens show temperatures around freezing for the Highlands with some scatter in FI as is to be expected! 

 

 

 

 

Edit: Wrong ens, my mistake. Far too early for me!

 

Actually I over reacted seeing them at 120h, the majority had the Atlantic pushing through and looked quite poor but most found a new way to re-establish a block. Still not a good sign and a bit of a wobble along with last nights ECM ensembles but I will pretty much ignore for now if ECM and UKMO look good this morning. So long as the Op's are on board I will feel better about our chances.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mucka

[shaky]

Actually I over reacted seeing them at 120h, the majority had the Atlantic pushing through and looked quite poor but most found a new way to re-establish a block. Still not a good sign and a bit of a wobble along with last nights ECM ensembles but I will pretty much ignore for now if ECM and UKMO look good this morning. So long as the Op's are on board I will feel better about our chances.

why does the ukmo take so long to come out?it use to be 4.30!!

[Mucka]

why does the ukmo take so long to come out?it use to be 4.30!!

 

I don't know. 

The MetO are punishing us for past sins?

It is really frustrating though since it was fine when we were locked in zonal.

[Frosty.]

All we need now is a wintry met office update and darren bett saying it's going to be turning much, much colder with snow.

Another very exciting day of model watching ahead..we are on the cusp of something BIG here guys.

[Mucka]

GFS 00z ensembles SE

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=285&y=123

[The PIT]

Downgrade and then upgrade by GFS. Cold delayed somewhat but then comes in stronger. Still a long way from being nailed on while it all hangs around in FI land.

[KTtom]

At first glance the ensembles look awful, however something isn't right....the operational run clearly shows London in sub -5 850's but the graph says not?

 

 

[winterof79]

All we need now is a wintry met office update and darren bett saying it's going to be turning much, much colder with snow.Another very exciting day of model watching ahead..we are on the cusp of something BIG here guys.

Strange then to see the MET getting rid of the colder outlook in the longer term Frosty.

Big difference in the ECM 00Z from 12Z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010900/ECU0-168.GIF?09-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECU0-192.GIF?08-0

 

But nice all the same

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010900/ECH1-192.GIF?09-12

Edited January 9, 2014 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

Strange then to see the MET getting rid of the colder outlook in the longer term Frosty.

Big difference in the ECM 00Z from 12Z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010900/ECU0-168.GIF?09-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECU0-192.GIF?08-0

Yeah, all most of us want is a wintry met office update for the first time this winter to compliment the generally huge potential from the models. Anyway, we don't have long to wait for cold weather, the weekend will bring higher pressure & colder, drier and brighter weather than we have seen for a long time with widespread frosts and even some freezing fog.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Frosty.

[That ECM]

GFS and ECM are fine. Key thing this morning is that they are a bit slower. Gem is just great. UKMO, draw your own!! Still waiting, prob FROZEN!

[winterof79]

Boundary snow seems to be the theme this morning and plenty of it if you are in the correct position

GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010900/gfs-0-174.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010900/gfs-1-174.png?0

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010900/ECM1-192.GIF?09-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010900/ECM0-192.GIF?09-12

[AWD]

Not saying it is any more likely to verify than other operational output, but the EC 0z is rather like yesterday's Met Office medium range update.

Turning cooler for all but struggling to get much below average for the south (excluding FI ). Cold enough for some snow further north, especially but not exclusively over the hills.

Anyway, long way to go yet I feel before any finer detail can be asserted on the NWP output.

[Radiating Dendrite]

So both the GFS and ECM are now showing a delay in the cold. They must have picked up on a new signal - perhaps more jet energy? The ensembles seem to have overreacted to this and are jumping ship a little.

This is just all part of the ride, for me the GEM is rock solid and has been for days. A much underated model, if that starts to change its output then nerves will creep in. My problem with delays is it gives more time for something to crop up and ruin the set up - something Nick S is always telling us!

[MPG]

The low to the south west on the EC dosent want to undercut so the cold air held to the North.

[Ali1977]

Ian F is going to say go with the GEM on this case....I hope!!!

Downgrades are awful

[shaky]

Its battleground snow galore on the ecm starting from.maybe next Monday!!good run!!a southward shift would be good though just to be safe!!

[bluearmy]

K'thom, the wetter London ens are for a grid point in the channel (no idea why it's not been fixed after all these years)

As far as ECM is concerned - getting far too close for my liking to game over at day 4 as the Atlantic and scandi low heights almost phase together. This run would be a snow machine if we already had embedded cold and this was the Atlantic trying to get in. However, it looks like a snow on hills job and in the north of the UK away from coastal counties. Gem looks too clean in its solution for me, given the complex nature of ukmo and ECM. I'm afraid I doubt Exeter are going to jump to a wintry update this morning apart from stating the risks and the likelihood of upland snowfall. days 4, 5 and 6 are where we need to pin this down and that's where the ops just begin to lose their reliability in favour of the ens mean. The result of this being that the ens are unlikely to be in the right place at day 4 so their evolution through day 6 will not be accurate enough for us to see what's likely. The ops are clearly not going to give strong guidance at day 6. The trend is certainly away from a clean undercut but it could be that a messy one might just find us the right side of cold enough. Far too risky though!

I'm ignoring the run post day 6 as there seems little point in concentrating on detail that far out when the initial phase could go very differently. I would draw your attention to the back end of the ECM run where a pulse of low heights drops in from the nw. That has been an extended ens theme on the anomolys and as I've stated before, if it the pattern is backed west far enough, that's a sustained cold pattern, even though it might not look so great on the height/anomolys/slp mean.

Edited January 9, 2014 by bluearmy

[Tim Bland]

ECM is a major downgrade for those in the south compared to yesterday. A could still be some wet snow though. With a dry cold easterly and low dew points, the uppers don't have to be that low for snow.

[Captain Shortwave]

Out of all the output, I would only take the GEM this morning. I really hope we can correct this south west a bit. I have to be honest, screw the battleground for now as my goodness the prospects for the flooded regions in the south would be incredibly grim here. If it's the wrong side of marginal then there could be days upon days of rain here.