Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[shaky]

The 18z NAVGEM looks very "slider-ish" at 144 hrs.

 

navgem-0-144.png

massive improvement on last night!!

[pages]

The 18z NAVGEM looks very "slider-ish" at 144 hrs.

 

navgem-0-144.png

Was just about to post that it looks good.

[karyo]

Think we might end up with a proper greenie high in far reaches of fi, the vortex is on its last legs at 264.

The vortex is certainly not in its last legs. If you check the stratosphere charts at 30hpa you will see that after a few wobbles it gets it's act together again and I think it has more than enough strength to push any block out of the way. 

The block only has a small window of opportunity to bring the cold to us before the Atlantic takes over again.

We need a major stratospheric warming to finish off the vortex but it is not forecasted in the next 384 hours.

 

Karyo

[tight isobar]

18z GFS....yes cautious....but quietly confident also.still all could be watered down somewhat. But also upgrade and solidify. Good evening overall.

[Stuie]

The vortex is certainly not in its last legs. If you check the stratosphere charts at 30hpa you will see that after a few wobbles it gets it's act together again and I think it has more than enough strength to push any block out of the way. 

The block only has a small window of opportunity to bring the cold to us before the Atlantic takes over again.

We need a major stratospheric warming to finish off the vortex but it is not forecasted in the next 384 hours.

 

Karyo

Oh...off to bed then.

[Cloud 10]

New fax charts for Sunday and Monday.

 

Much slower progress of the front compared to the 18z gfs,which then grinds to a halt

over the East of the UK.

 

 

 

[draztik]

Err! 18z trends away from a noticeable easterly with this run, meaning we don't see the cold projected by its earlier runs. Tho, we do see a noticeable period of cold, extending through its later output due to the synoptics it throws up!

Conclusion, from this run, easterly not a foregone, nor is the alternative! I do feel we have taken a side step, and will have to reserve judgment until tomorrow. But, as is often the case with these projected patterns, we see the colder conditions pushed back into FI! An all too familiar story for the UK, and why some remain cautious!

[bluearmy]

tbh, the 18z navgem and gfs are not going to offer the best guidance on what is a tricky solution. the 00z's are awaited for obvious reasons. It's a fair while since we saw an ECM op that didn't undercut convincingly. Given the variation in ens solutions, you would expect to see one pop up. If the 00z ECM is an undercutting cold corker then I think that tells you a lot about where we're probably headed. Also, the gem ops have been consistently undercutting. Up to T120, this upcoming situation should be resolved better by the ops. You could argue that ECM op is capable of making a decent stab as far as day 7. We'll find out next week on that one.

[Eskimo]

New fax charts for Sunday and Monday.

 

Much slower progress of the front compared to the 18z gfs,which then grinds to a halt

over the East of the UK.

 

fax96s.giffax120s.gif

Which could bode well if you are looking for snowfall across Eastern areas, as the cold mixes in?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The vortex is certainly not in its last legs. If you check the stratosphere charts at 30hpa you will see that after a few wobbles it gets it's act together again and I think it has more than enough strength to push any block out of the way. 

The block only has a small window of opportunity to bring the cold to us before the Atlantic takes over again.

We need a major stratospheric warming to finish off the vortex but it is not forecasted in the next 384 hours.

 

Karyo

We can still get cold even with the vortex in place. Believe January 1987 was a prime example, along with 2009/10 correct me if I'm wrong.

[karyo]

We can still get cold even with the vortex in place. Believe January 1987 was a prime example, along with 2009/10 correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes, but it is a trickier road.

Anyway, it is important to remain realistic and not imply that the problem with the vortex is behind us.

 

Karyo

[Cloud 10]

Which could bode well if you are looking for snowfall across Eastern areas, as the cold mixes in?

 

Possibly if it hangs around for long enough,but more likely it will just fizzle out in situ,although trying

to predict where that front will actually lie at 5 days out is a tad tricky!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yes, but it is a trickier road.

Anyway, it is important to remain realistic and not imply that the problem with the vortex is behind us.

 

Karyo

Who knows what could happen! 

 

All I know is, is that I only had to blink and suddenly these outputs have sprung up. 

[shaky]

When do the 18z ensembles come out?

[weirpig]

When do the 18z ensembles come out?

now up to 144

[damianslaw]

Which could bode well if you are looking for snowfall across Eastern areas, as the cold mixes in?

 

 

Indeed not far off one of those classic battleground situations - alas uppers will be too high to deliver any low level snowfall, but you can see the front is occluding fast with the denser colder air to the NE due to mix out the warmer uppers settled over the country - indeed the warmer uppers are being attacked both by cold uppers to the north east and south west. The front is thus likely to stall in situ and fizzle probably with another trough feature moving in from the west but this one will not make it to the east coast and will end up a classic slider perhaps enabling a cold flow to move into the north from the northeast by mid week. Its always good to see battle lines developing across the country far more interesting than watching the steamrolling jet we have been plagued with preety much since late October barring the quieter spell in late November into early December.

 

There is a good chance that most of the country will be under sub 528 dam air come middle of the next week for the first time this winter season.

[shaky]

now up to 144

do they look any better than the op??

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm certainly not too 'perturbed' by the Ensemble mean:

 

All academic for now though - tomorrow's runs will be fascinating once again...

[BlueHedgehog074]

DiagonalRedLine, It ain't just the GEM that deserves an Oscar.... Good post

Thanks. Suppose, to be fair, they could all win an oscar, with maybe a 'bronze snowflake award' and a 'silver snowflake award', for the fact that many of the models are showing what the cold and snowy fans want. That GFS 18Z does look a bit ropey, though.

 

(Totally regret the other day when doing that status update saying that the Model Thread should be banned, even though didn't really mean it. Hopefully that won't happen again, and besides, this thread does make for great entertainment when interesting stuff evolves in the models ;-)).

Edited January 8, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles

 

 

NW England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=235&y=37

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=235&y=37&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

SE England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=291&y=127&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=291&y=127

 

ECM ensembles London

 

 

Those ECM London ensembles don't exactly instil confidence do they? Lots of scatter quite early and not nearly as cold as the 00z set.

The morning runs will certainly be interesting one way or another.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Mucka

[UV-RAY]

The vortex is certainly not in its last legs. If you check the stratosphere charts at 30hpa you will see that after a few wobbles it gets it's act together again and I think it has more than enough strength to push any block out of the way. The block only has a small window of opportunity to bring the cold to us before the Atlantic takes over again.We need a major stratospheric warming to finish off the vortex but it is not forecasted in the next 384 hours. Karyo

Isn't that why it's called sudden though, let's get the cold in place first then worry about how long and how cold.

[Snowman.]

Holy #@$%!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=10

 

Reload reloads!!

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The control run will do me fine

Mean at days 7/8

Looks solid enough

[karyo]

Isn't that why it's called sudden though, let's get the cold in place first then worry about how long and how cold.

It is called sudden because of the sharp increase in stratospheric temperatures and the reversal of zonal winds but it can be forecasted well in advance. 

But I agree, that if we get this cold spell it will be a bonus.

 

Karyo

[weirpig]

The control run will do me fine

Mean at days 7/8

Looks solid enough

yep the control is looking a peach of a run