Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[bluearmy]

Latest faxes show how prevalent the fronts will be thurs/fri

maxes could struggle to reach the 32c mark as widespread sustained sunshine could be in short supply. The se of england on friday in the warm sector favoured as the se flow off the continent shouldnt be cloud filled.

Edited July 13, 2014 by bluearmy

[shaky]

Latest faxes show how prevalent the fronts will be thurs/frimaxes could struggle to reach the 32c mark as widespread sustained sunshine could be in short supply. The se of england on friday in the warm sector favoured as the se flow off the continent shouldnt be cloud filled.

what sort of maxes do you think we'll be looking at across england bluearmy?

[Captain Shortwave]

Latest faxes show how prevalent the fronts will be thurs/fri

maxes could struggle to reach the 32c mark as widespread sustained sunshine could be in short supply. The se of england on friday in the warm sector favoured as the se flow off the continent shouldnt be cloud filled.

Pressure chart wise it looks very similar to the raw UKMO. I get the feeling that it will look different tomorrow.

It does look like conditions are rife for disturbances to develop along the western flank of the Euro/Scandi ridge which bring the potential for thundery downpours. The GFS for example has one for Thursday night into Friday

These will prove nightmarish to forecast, and could bring a range of conditions, could be hot and sunny, very warm and thundery or the plain old bust scenario of being stuck under storm debris which will suppress temperatures and convection. GFS mid level cape suggests that anything we can bring up from France would quite possibly be of the thundery variety, even at night.

Longer term, the GFS is smelling the same signal as the ECM 

Edited July 13, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Evening thunder]

GFS (12z) ensembles show the 850hpa temp staying above averagae throughout for London:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

and the mean had higher pressure building into the UK by T+240 which is maintained through most of the run.

Some ensembles showed high pressure centred near the UK like the ECM, and others more changeable or unsettled although often still ridging into the UK at times. 

Now the GFS 18z has done something not too dissimilar to the ECM op.

There does seem a trend this evening that something warm and more settled may return after relatively brief breakdown. Whether it verifies remains to be seen but at the moment the outlook is decent for those who like warm summer weather, or thundery weather.

[SteveB]

Good morning and  WOW  GFS is a heat fest this morning, all starting from this Wednesday, with only a day or two of cooler weather before the heat builds again.

 

 

 

Plenty of storm potential too.

 

 

Plenty to look forward to over the next few days (if you like heat and thunder storms that is)

Edited July 14, 2014 by SteveB

[IDO]

Although the ECM 12z mean was not convincing in its support for the amplified op, it does look like it has reasonable support, and I wouldn't expect it to be in the majority as the hi-res runs is just latching onto this possibility:

 

 

Its the same with the GEFS mean of the 12z, there was about 33% support for the ECM solution but not enough to override the other members going with the trough. This morning both the op and Control from GFS have the continuation of higher pressure a few days after the breakdown trough:

 

T192 op:   Control: 

 

The op is still hanging on to HP/ridging by D16:  Signs of a second plume in FI (too far out at the moment).

 

Looking at the GEFS the top cluster is now supporting the hi-res at about 38% and the rest is about 30% each either a UK trough or something in between (N/S split). So a continued trend to extend the warmer weather.

 

GEM is still going with the UK trough and more changeable: D6:   D10: 

 

And I am not sure about UKMO  yet: D6  Navgem ditto: 

 

In the shorter term we still have 3-4 days of warm to hot temps (latter SE) associated with the upcoming plume, with high humidity at times. The highest risk of storms looks to remain on the western side on Thursday transferring to the Eastern side Friday & Saturday. Then a couple of days as the shallow trough fills, then followed by the Azores ridging back NE; assuming the GFS Op is correct.

Edited July 14, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

There are still quite a few routes out of this weekend as illustrated by the variation in op output this morning. The 6/10 day op mean charts will show ECM/Gfs looking starkly different.

ECM again looks exaggerated in its solution - are we really going to see 850's of +12c knocking on the door of Eastern Greenland? Gem manages to sneak the +20c isotherm into our se coastal areas for a few hours. Again - really????

[Captain Shortwave]

There are still quite a few routes out of this weekend as illustrated by the variation in op output this morning. The 6/10 day op mean charts will show ECM/Gfs looking starkly different.

ECM again looks exaggerated in its solution - are we really going to see 850's of +12c knocking on the door of Eastern Greenland? Gem manages to sneak the +20c isotherm into our se coastal areas for a few hours. Again - really????

I've lost count of how many times that evolution (ECM and GEM) has come up over this summer, it's been far too many and I am not sure why this keeps happening, the fact this evolution has verified zero times this summer speaks volumes really. GEMs 20C plume? Hmm the ECM I suspect would get 850s of around 18C into the south east on Friday afternoon, so it's possible if unlikely I guess. It's odd that the GFS which is renown for over playing the 850 temperatures is actually showing something more sober compared to the other models. Mind you 12-14C would bring temperatures of around 30C if the sunshine amounts are decent.

 

The GFS mean this morning looks decent for week 2 with the Azores high getting back in.

 

Looks similar to yesterdays ECM 12z mean so there is something there for this evolution. Unfortunately I suspect there will be quite a few wild operational runs over the coming days which will try and say the opposite to this, though I feel this is the way forward (again settled warm conditions are dependent on the position of the jet)

Edited July 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Well there have been some record temps in Greenland already blue much around the +12C. Anyway the ECM HRES ops is singing much the same song this morning for the weekend with perhaps some consolidation of the low pressure. Temps remain high

Edited July 14, 2014 by knocker

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just thinking how amazing it is to see such lovely summer charts on offer , gfs absolutely blew me away with such amazing warm summer weather been the order of the day. The ECM although not as nice still looks good with more hot weather moving north in fi , what ever happens the secondhand half of July looks warm , albeit thundery at times , but with some hot sunshine aswell , after such a depressing winter this summery is/has been the perfect antidote needed to recover .

[Summer Sun]

Well if GFS is right any breakdown could be very short lived with another spell of heat next week

 

Sunday looks the freshest day after the heat arrives on Wednesday

 

 

FI has heat galore

 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2014 by Summer Sun

[carinthian]

Just thinking how amazing it is to see such lovely summer charts on offer , gfs absolutely blew me away with such amazing warm summer weather been the order of the day. The ECM although not as nice still looks good with more hot weather moving north in fi , what ever happens the secondhand half of July looks warm , albeit thundery at times , but with some hot sunshine aswell , after such a depressing winter this summery is/has been the perfect antidote needed to recover .

Nice to see you all getting a good taste of Summer this year after that horrible winter. The longer range charts show some continuation of the increasingly hot outlook in your part of the world. Funnyily enough,we in this part of the Alps having a rather dismal summer so far !

[Man With Beard]

This morning's mean charts - at T216, lots of variation but both alike in holding the trough to our west, meaning our weather coming from south of west

Though not a guarantee of rain free weather, an emphasis on warm/dry for most, especially as you go SE. Genuine heatwave possibilities once again.

[knocker]

The ECM ens anomaly gives a similar scenario for the weekend but knocks the temps down a tad. Not much change for next week.

Edited July 14, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

The mean looks like it is highlighting the two main possibilities that the ensemble members are showing, so sits in middle ground (which of course may turn out to be right).

Looking at the D5 ECM members (here) the op and control are in cluster 2; cluster 1 has about the same members and they closer represent what the ECM op showed last night, with the weekend's trough less active, and thus giving a helping hand to the Azores ridging.

No surprise here, as the GEFS are also split on how the trough interacts with further ridging from the SW and the flow from the Atlantic.

The GEM ENS (here) have about 25% support for the returning higher pressure and NOGAPS has closer to 40% support (here), so this certainly looks like one to watch.

So looking like two possibilities from Week 2 though a mix of the two represented by the means may also occur. Bearing in mind a couple of days ago the GEFS FI was showing an extended unsettled period there is now a chance for more Summery conditions.

Edited July 14, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[stodge]

Morning all

 

Some subtle changes from the overnight output and it does look as though Friday and Saturday will be interesting days for the SE in particular:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071400/gfs-1-120.png?0

 

The T+120 850s from the 00Z Operational GFS - 12c isotherm well over the country but the 16c remains to the other side of the channel so we don't tap into the really hot continental air. Very warm yes but more like mid to high 20s than low 30s.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071400/ECM0-120.GIF

 

The same point on the 00Z ECM output and the 16c isotherm is over East Anglia and the SE albeit briefly. This would be a warmer chart with the "magic" 30c within reach for somewhere in London which won't be pleasant combined with the humidity.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071400/gem-1-120.png

 

GEM very similar to ECM - both models make more of the heat plume in general than GFS.

 

UKMO suggests another short-lived heat event before cooler and fresher air moves in on Saturday and Sunday.

 

As we;re still struggling with this event four days out, it would be unwise to be too confident abouyt any future heat events. GFS suggests a period of settled weather as you'd like to see in July but fans of heat need to see some Atlantic activity in order to advect northward the really hot air from Africa via Iberia.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z ups the maxes tomorrow by 2c or 3c for parts of England and Wales compared to the 00z run

 

 

From Wednesday the heat builds in for England and Wales with an increasing risk of thunderstorms developing from Thursday

 

 

I'm not going to post more charts as thats enough but as per the 00z the heat persists well into FI

[shaky]

GFS 06z ups the maxes tomorrow by 2c or 3c for parts of England and Wales compared to the 00z run

 

 

From Wednesday the heat builds in for England and Wales with an increasing risk of thunderstorms developing from Thursday

 

 

I'm not going to post more charts as thats enough but as per the 00z the heat persists well into FI

I was just gona say the same thing about tomorrows temperatures mate!!amazing how they have been upped from 22 to 25 and where only 24 hours away!!so the heat practically starts from tomorrow peeps!!

[cheeky_monkey]

Looking at those charts seems like the heat will peak on Thursday rather than fri/sat as shown on earlier charts?

[Gael_Force]

Looking at those charts seems like the heat will peak on Thursday rather than fri/sat as shown on earlier charts?

 

Looks a bit messy on Friday - will not be pleasant at all with moisture and heat under cloudy skies.

 

[stodge]

I really don't think comments such as "the heat persists well into FI" are an accurate reflection of the GFS 06Z Operational output.

 

The 850s show a marginal upgrade but only that from the 00Z Operational output:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071406/gfs-1-102.png?6

 

This is as good as it gets in terms of the 16c isotherm crossing the Channel so we're back to subjective wordplay - what does "the heat" mean ? If we mean temperatures of 25c in London yes I wouldn't argue there's plenty of that in the output. If we mean 30c I don't see a lot of that beyond this week before a possibility of another plume in the furthest reaches of FI. If we mean 33-35c I don't see that at all.

 

I do see plenty of settled weather

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071406/gfs-0-180.png?6

 

A good summer chart if you want fine and settled weather but not a chart if you solely want heat.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071406/gfs-0-240.png?6

 

Once again, excellent for the holidaymaker particularly in the south and west (though sea mist and fog might be an issue).

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071406/gfs-0-384.png?6

 

A nice and settled end to the output and signs of the possible second plume though we would need to see a further drop in pressure to the SW to introduce a pronounced S'ly flow.

[Yarmy]

My 6-year old has been learning a lot about WW1 at school, so I thought I'd have a look at the "model output" for that time (war broke out on the 28th). The progged synoptics for the coming week are not a million miles away, extensive ridge through Scandinavia towards Greenland, trough in Central Russia and the heights over Siberia, etc:

 

 

 

One for our older members, perhaps.

[Nouska]

My 6-year old has been learning a lot about WW1 at school, so I thought I'd have a look at the "model output" for that time (war broke out on the 28th). The progged synoptics for the coming week are not a million miles away, extensive ridge through Scandinavia towards Greenland, trough in Central Russia and the heights over Siberia, etc:

 

 

 

 One for our older members, perhaps.

 

Hi Yarmy, I was just reading the dossier that MF have compiled from their archives - it is in French but a little work with Google should do the trick, if French not spoken.

 

http://www.meteofrance.fr/la-meteo-au-temps-de-la-grande-guerre

 

Sorry, mods a little off topic - perhaps an historic chart will let it pass.

 

[knocker]

Looking at the GEFS ens mean anomaly no question where the warm air is.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO showing the potential for a hot day in the East, if cloud amounts are not too much

 

GFS looks wet and muggy for many areas on Friday. The GFS also ushers in a pretty quick breakdown to cooler conditions, again temperatures would still be respectable for the time of year.

 

Day 5

Interesting

Very interesting, low pressure centred over the south east with very high 850s. The FAX charts will be interesting tonight. Saturday would be potentially explosive in a convective sense.

 

Both the GFS and UKMO see conditions improving at day 6 (Sunday) as low pressure drifts north-westwards and away from the UK.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave