Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[Yarmy]

Good gravy!!!!! 

 

Just a bit. The Bay of Biscay heat pump in full effect. East Anglia has done alright for storms so far this summer, but there haven't been 850hpa temps remotely close to those yet.

[Cloud 10]

An unusual evolution from the ECM op run this evening with its push from the east at 144 hrs.

 

 

 

More used to seeing a push from the west after a plume event.

[knocker]

Just the Friday and Saturday from the HRES as these are the days of interest. Note the strength and direction and strength of the 700mb contour charts.

Edited July 15, 2014 by knocker

[shaky]

Ecm once again showing the plume for friday and saturday!!infact we got the 20 degree isotherm scraping kent on this run scary!!very warm/hot conditions all the way through on this run and high pressure builds in straight after the plume on this run again!!

[Summer Sun]

Could get pretty hot in the SE on Saturday temperatures easily into the 30's for some spots

 

[Captain Shortwave]

You have to laugh really

An easterly all the way from Siberia 

ECM would probably see temperatures touching the 30C next week in favoured places like the West Midlands/East Wales.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Weather-history]

You have to laugh really

An easterly all the way from Siberia

ECM would probably see temperatures touching the 30C next week in favoured places like the West Midlands/East Wales.

ECM has a whiff of late July-early August 1995 about it...

Edited July 15, 2014 by Weather-history

[Daniel*]

Could get pretty hot in the SE on Saturday temperatures easily into the 30's for some spots

 

Blimey that would be hot on the surface, Saturday may be warmer then Friday? Them upper boundaries are going to cause huge variation from East to West - nudging 33C on that chart surely?

[ANYWEATHER]

Blimey that would be hot on the surface, Saturday may be warmer then Friday? Them upper boundaries are going to cause huge variation from East to West - nudging 33C on that chart surely?

All models are really struggling with this scenario.....

[Captain Shortwave]

If the ECM ens are correct

Then it's fair to say that the Scandi high will be bossing the weather for the whole of Europe. Very warm or hot throughout away from eastern coast where onshore breezes will prevail.

[knocker]

The METO blog I posted about the plume had this to say with the graphics. Check it out with ECM

 

 

The jet stream has dipped south over north eastern parts of the US, allowing cooler air to flood in over the area and bringing much lower temperatures than usual for this time of year.

 

Top image shows forecast jet stream at 1am Wednesday, with an obvious kink over the NE of the US. The bottom forecast image, for 1am on Saturday, shows a kink now over Spain, with warm air from that region flowing towards the UK.

Edited July 15, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The ens 6-10 anomalies

 

[Daniel*]

All models are really struggling with this scenario.....

I was talking on that chart alone nothing else - I'd appreciate some futher insight.

[shaky]

The ens 6-10 anomalies

whats your take on the ensembles knocker!!warm and sunny maybe?

[chapmanslade]

Could get pretty hot in the SE on Saturday temperatures easily into the 30's for some spots

 

Well only if the sun gets to work - there could be far too much cloud about by then

[William of Walworth]

With reference to chapmanslade's last sentemnce just above, I'm finding it pretty tricky to predict likely rain/downpour levels and locations, and the same for sun/cloud, for Friday and (especially) Saturday in the very latest outputs.

 

Maybe a few people would care to hazard some some suggestions here (as well as just for temperatures). Which areas are going to be winners/losers in the sunshine vs storms wars this coming weekend do people reckon?

 

Thanks all.

Edited July 15, 2014 by William of Walworth

[Djdazzle]

I think that with the current output, 32c is easily possible on Fri. Saturday is far less certain. It depends on how the fronts behave.

[knocker]

With reference to chapmanslade's last sentemnce just above, I'm finding it pretty tricky to predict likely rain/downpour levels and locations, and the same for sun/cloud, for Friday and (especially) Saturday in the very latest outputs.

 

Maybe a few people would care to hazard some some suggestions here (as well as just for temperatures). Which areas are going to be winners/losers in the sunshine vs storms wars this coming weekend do people reckon?

 

Thanks all.

 

In this synoptic setup and a possibility, and I stress possibility, of a Spanish Plume where all sorts of things have to come together it's impossible at this stage to predict any detail and it's futile to try. Even the professionals at the METO wouldn't attempt it so they have just issued a yellow warning for a low risk of heavy, thundery downpours for Saturday.for the moment. Best left to Friday.

[knocker]

whats your take on the ensembles knocker!!warm and sunny maybe?

 

Certainly looking warm but it's bit of the way down the road regarding sunshine. rather depends on the position of the HP if it develops.

[Captain Shortwave]

Heh only took 1 run, a sudden flip to the ECM/GEM solution for next week

It's also nice to see the 30C mark on the GFS temperature prediction

We could probably squeeze and degree or so more out of Friday I think.

 

Further on and by next Tuesday the temperatures are back into the high twenties widely, possibly 30C in the south

Edited July 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

With reference to chapmanslade's last sentemnce just above, I'm finding it pretty tricky to predict likely rain/downpour levels and locations, and the same for sun/cloud, for Friday and (especially) Saturday in the very latest outputs.Maybe a few people would care to hazard some some suggestions here (as well as just for temperatures). Which areas are going to be winners/losers in the sunshine vs storms wars this coming weekend do people reckon?Thanks all.

I imagine a line of storm potential might move north through the country on Saturday. Storms for the south early, the north later. Western areas might avoid them, maybe even the east coast. Temperatures a bit of a lottery, the 850s won't be the best guide if a storm hits.

[shaky]

Aaaah only took a few runs but gfs gets there in the end...........

[Man With Beard]

Aaaah only took a few runs but gfs gets there in the end...........

Fairly good agreement then that pressure will be higher rather than lower for most of next week. Potentially 10 days coming up with maximums in the 80s, maybe a slight struggle on Sunday/Monday, and maybe a few of these days topping 30C. Some hot days pretty much nationwide too, with an easterly element in the wind I would have thought some western coasts could also see some surprisingly high values.

[SteveB]

Ding dong GFS is looking lovely this morning, with plenty of dry warm/hot weather on offer all next week.

 

The hot weather really gets going from tomorrow.

 

 

With the hot weather comes the potential for thunderstorms

 

 

After the fire works, it all settles down and the warmth stays.

 

[mushymanrob]

exactly what heat seekers wanted to see this morning, the noaa now in agreement with runs suggesting high pressure dominance close to our (north) east next week... looking good!

 

Edited July 16, 2014 by mushymanrob