Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[SP1986]

Things have changed quite markedly overnight with a breakdown pushed forward by the GFS, bringing a close to the warmth and settled weather around 144 hours, as opposed to what was expected to be a continuation of warm and settled conditions out beyond 180 hours in previous runs. 

 

It is possible the length of the warm, settled spell could be shortened even further by the GFS, so it could literally be 3-4 fine days and a thunderstorm on its output in following runs.

 

It's difficult to say what exactly the models will do with the current projected warm, settled spell, there is now a lot of uncertainty, but there is new fairly strong pattern emerging from the GFS of a more unsettled outlook past day 5.

Edited July 20, 2014 by SP1986

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS continues to model the mid Atlantic low differently to the rest, again simply fizzling it meaning the Azores high doesn't build over the top. Hence the more progressive solution. Unless other models follow this this evening, then it is an unlikely solution for now. No surprise given it's the 06z GFS. 

GFS

Other consnesus

 

Interestingly, the GFS is modeling a much more amplified Azores/Atlantic ridge which would also explain the differences in diffusing the other low and allowing troughing to try and break into the UK.

[knocker]

The ECM ens has an interesting change to the 500 anomaly. A broad swathe of warm air running virtually west to east Atlantic to Scandinavia with weak ridge mid Atlantic. This gives a broad area of HP Atlantic to Scandinavia with above average temps for the UK.

Edited July 20, 2014 by knocker

[Milhouse]

Things have changed quite markedly overnight with a breakdown pushed forward by the GFS, bringing a close to the warmth and settled weather around 144 hours, as opposed to what was expected to be a continuation of warm and settled conditions out beyond 180 hours in previous runs. 

 

It is possible the length of the warm, settled spell could be shortened even further by the GFS, so it could literally be 3-4 fine days and a thunderstorm on its output in following runs.

 

It's difficult to say what exactly the models will do with the current projected warm, settled spell, there is now a lot of uncertainty, but there is new fairly strong pattern emerging from the GFS of a more unsettled outlook past day 5.

 

The GFS 6z is clearly the most unsettled of all models this morning so its rather misleading to say that 'things' have changed overnight. Its quite clear looking at whats on offer from the other models that you can not base future developments on the 6z.

 

144h shows the GFS 6z is the most unsettled.

 

 

 

 

[SP1986]

I say things have changed overnight, on the GFS model, not with all the models, I'm well aware the ECM is still settled, along with the UKMO. 

 

But as the GFS is the only major model that has a 6 hour run, it's still showing a similar situation to the 0z on it's own run.

 

I can't say what will happen overall, I don't know, and of course the difference between all the models leads to extra-uncertainty. Who knows what will happen.. all we can say is that this GFS situation, is a recently development, so it will need eyes kept on it.

[Frank Trough]

I say things have changed overnight, on the GFS model, not with all the models, I'm well aware the ECM is still settled, along with the UKMO. 

 

But as the GFS is the only major model that has a 6 hour run, it's still showing a similar situation to the 0z on it's own run.

 

I can't say what will happen overall, I don't know, and of course the difference between all the models leads to extra-uncertainty. Who knows what will happen.. all we can say is that this GFS situation, is a recently development, so it will need eyes kept on it.

for what it's worth you can also have a peep at the ensembles to help establish how much support the operational has:

 

 

 

So for the south at the timeframe you suggest the op is not an outlier but has limited support.

 

We shall see. As stated above eventually the Atlantic will break through - that's just a matter of time so if you keep looking for it eventualy you'll be right.

 

The jet was supposed to be "powering up and diving south" this weekend according to the GFS last week and it most certainly isn't.

[Gael_Force]

for what it's worth you can also have a peep at the ensembles to help establish how much support the operational has:

 

 

 

So for the south at the timeframe you suggest the op is not an outlier but has limited support.

 

We shall see. As stated above eventually the Atlantic will break through - that's just a matter of time so if you keep looking for it eventualy you'll be right.

 

The jet was supposed to be "powering up and diving south" this weekend according to the GFS last week and it most certainly isn't.

 

It most certainly is but not quite as modelled a week ago.

 

[shaky]

And as if by magic gfs moves over to the euros!!at the same time we had low pressure over us on the 06z!!

[Summer Sun]

Certainly a big change from GFS this afternoon with high pressure back in play

 

12z

 

 

06z

 

 

12z

 

 

06z

 

[Milhouse]

The GFS 12z has the heat piling out of central and northern Europe all week heading our way. Scandinavia looks like being very warm or hot all week so its a very warm source of air we are seeing feeding from the east. SSTs are really rising now so even on the east coast it should be pleasantly warm. Away from east coasts temperatures will rise towards the high 20s touching 30c again by the end of the week.

[Man With Beard]

Certainly a big change from GFS this afternoon with high pressure back in play

 

12z

 

 

06z

 

 

12z

 

 

06z

 

At T120 there's the slightest of chances of a breakdown but both GFS and UKMO build HP again by T144. Chances of a hot start to week 2 increasing. Doesn't look like any majorly cool air will get into the mix, so perhaps another 10 days ahead maxing 27-30C ish in the south, low to mid 20s elsewhere. Turning into one of those summers that will be remembered in years to come, not for the heat (yet!) but for sheer consistent settled summer weather. Like I mentioned yesterday, I still think a UK high a bit like 1995 could be on the cards by D8 ish, which at this time of year, considering the starting point, could push temps into the low 30s bit more regularly.

[Snowyowl9]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.htmlGFS looks more like ECM now a prolonged very warm spell.May still be the odd thunderstorm later next week.They are known to build up with this sort of humid setup under HP even.

Edited July 20, 2014 by Snowyowl9

[Milhouse]

The ECM 12z offers high pressure domination pretty much from start to finish. Theres the chance of some thundery downpours across southern England next weekend but another high pressure builds in from off the Atlantic and the run ends in style with all parts settled and very warm. Its the very height of summer now so we would see the maximum temperatures possible given the synoptics.

 

 

[SP1986]

wow these are very variable scenarios here. but ones, that seem to be pointing towards a prolonged spell, in the 12z outputs. All good signs I think.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

18z... Another BANK as the legend frosty would say. What a summer this is turning out to be! We've reclaimed our proper summers back it seems, and finally got the storms to head directly north!!

It's these warm sea temps that are playing a big part I feel.

[matty007]

This is all looking very positive. Can't see it breaking for some time. As others have said, eventually the atlantic will win through, but I suspect it will be quite some time. 

 

It's looking like this Summer could certainly beat last year's. A warmer June, a perhaps equal July (but in my mind superior due to good storm activity) and all looking good going into August. 

 

Reminds me of 90's type Summers really. 

[knocker]

Again a quick glance at the 500nb anomaly charts for the 6-10. No great agreement and certain;y no settled patter emerging as yet. NOAA has a trough broadly covering the UK and Scandinavia whilst the ECM has a ridge Scandinavia with trough banished Greenland/Iceland and a westerly theme across the Atlantic.The GFS has a similar scenario with the ridge a tad further east. Ergo much uncertainty remains regarding the surface evolution at this stage.

 

In the longer term NOAA is backing the trough back giving what would appear a more unsettled westerly outlook for the UK but this is Mystic Meg country so no great weight should be given to this.

 

In the meantime not a bad week with some rain in N. Ireland and possibilty of thunderstorms for the east later in the week.

Edited July 21, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Again a quick glance at the 500nb anomaly charts for the 6-10. No great agreement and certain;y no settled patter emerging as yet. NOAA has a trough broadly covering the UK and Scandinavia whilst the ECM has a ridge Scandinavia with trough banished Greenland/Iceland and a westerly theme across the Atlantic.The GFS has a similar scenario with the ridge a tad further east. Ergo much uncertainty remains regarding the surface evolution at this stage.

 

In the longer term NOAA is backing the trough back giving what would appear a more unsettled westerly outlook for the UK but this is Mystic Meg country so no great weight should be given to this.

 

In the meantime not a bad week with some rain in N. Ireland and possibilty of thunderstorms for the east later in the week.

I might be wrong here, but the NOAA charts show higher than average pressure over the UK (red = above average heights), this weakening into the later stages which ties in with the ens means from both the ECM and GFS which want to bring a more westerly pattern, albeit with high pressure still being the main player.

 

There definitely seems to be a decent amount of destabilisation of the atmosphere from Friday and into the next weekend, so many another outbreak of heavy and thundery showers is on the cards.

[Polar Maritime]

I have just had to delete a whole bunch of off topic posts about the METO and other forecasts.

 

There are other threads for these subject, Can we please only discuss Model Output in here.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited July 21, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

the 00z ecm is now going the same way as the gfs 00z.. , a change over next weekend to something fresher and cooler by next monday

 

 

 

so a very nice week for those of us who like summery warmth, possibly breaking down next sunday.

Edited July 21, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Mushy, The GFS has been hinting a cool down of sorts for the turn/Months end for a few days now, As you say the ECM starting to show this to, Still lots to be resolved. 

 

[Man With Beard]

Yes, a slight change this morning, a slightly stronger trough around T168 creates a slightly stronger westerly element, bringing slightly fresher air:

Temps dropping into the 20C-25C category for next Monday then, if this verifies. How long does the "fresher" spell last for? Err... according to GFS, about 24 hours:

ECM squeezes two not quite so hot days out, but by Wednesday:

So not really worth calling this a breakdown, just a "pause". More runs needed!

Looking further out ... could someone confirm if the latest NOAA 8-14 anomaly chart is supportive of a UK High, I would have thought "yes"?

Edited July 21, 2014 by rjbw

[Summer Sun]

UKMO looking very warm maybe even hot in the south with an increasing risk of thunderstorms again for the latter part of the weekend

 

 

Edited July 21, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes, a slight change this morning, a slightly stronger trough around T168 creates a slightly stronger westerly element, bringing slightly fresher air:

Temps dropping into the 20C-25C category for next Monday then, if this verifies. How long does the "fresher" spell last for? Err... according to GFS, about 24 hours:

ECM squeezes two not quite so hot days out, but by Wednesday:

So not really worth calling this a breakdown, just a "pause". More runs needed!

Looking further out ... could someone confirm if the latest NOAA 8-14 anomaly chart is supportive of a UK High, I would have thought "yes"?

I do get the feeling that week 2 will probably be another one of those transient Azores ridges which will drift across the south of the UK. Not too dissimilar to the week just gone. Just a question of how amplified the pattern will be.

Looks pretty flat at the moment, but there is a slight buckle in the Atlantic which might become more pronounced the closer we get. Either way I think many areas will see warmer than average temperatures for the foreseeable, though there might be a brief cool down around day 7/8. 

[SteveB]

GFS6z is looking groovy if you like warm/hot weather. Only the slight threat of some thundery showers later on in the week & into the weekend to prevent a totally dry week.

 

 

 

 

In FI it shows a slight breakdown from the West, but this could be short-lived our it may not even happen. Either way, a good 7+ days of fine Summer weather to enjoy.