Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[Polar Maritime]

I have just had to delete a post, Can we please only discuss Model Output in here.

 

Thankyou. PM

[Captain Shortwave]

This chart pretty much describes Tuesday all the way until Friday

High pressure to the north east drawing in an east/south easterly wind. Temperatures will start the week in the low to mid-twenties (Monday), but from then on temperatures will steadily rise, as the sunny skies take their toll as well as 850s steadily rising to 12-14C. Temperatures could reach the low 30s in the south. Isoleted showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

The GFS and GEM also hint at a pattern change into week 2 - A UK based high

 

The ECM again tries to build heights over the pole, but it's evolution has no support from the GFS/GEM or UKMO this morning. Without that polar high I think the ECM would also build heights over the UK as there is a lot of warm air trying to build northwards.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

A quick look at the 700mb contour chart fro tomorrow and is much as expected. Also note the jet is spot on for the forecast position earlier in the week.

[carinthian]

Just an interesting comparison of this years summer and last years. Here in Austria, summer 2013 was one of the  hottest ever when a lot of hot dry air moved north  and with relative lower lapse rates storms were a fairly rare event.

This year sees the Upper trough stalling over the Eastern Atlantic with a southerly draw of increasing warm air mass in the lower layers of the atmosphere into Western Europe with the added moisture from more maritime quarters providing the instability. The present models would indicate the warm or even hot summer to continue in your part of Europe with the peak of heat occurring during the next 3 weeks. If this pattern were to continue, a memorable summer could be on the cards.

Conversely, we in Austria are having a fairly ordinary summer compared to the intense heat of last year. Basically, sums up all about the weather, one mans gain and one mans loss.

C

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows the heat rebuilding next week after a slightly fresher day on Sunday

 

Temperatures in the high 20's for the south low to mid 20's for England and Wales

 

 

Tuesday sees temperatures into the low 30's again for the south fresher along on the east coast but the heat builds inland

 

 

Temperatures on Wednesday close to 30c again for the south mid 20's widely for England and Wales, a fresher feel on the east coast still with the light easterly breeze

 

 

Again on Thursday its the same as above close to 30c again for the south mid 20's widely for England and Wales, slightly fresher right on the east coast though the breeze begins to move round to the SE'ly

 

 

By Friday temps are into the low 30's for the south mid 20's widely for England and Wales

 

 

Beyond this the heat lasts well into FI

 

 

[knocker]

Looking at the weather for next weekend with the ECM ens. Looking very good but must be treated with extreme cauion as there is little correlation between the NOAA 6-10 and the ECM anomalies. It can be seen that the latter has a mass of warm air to the north and the UK dominated by a strong ridge. NOAA on the other hand has the ridge further east and a trough down to the UK,

Edited July 18, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

ECM ens more bullish than ever on an extended heatwave (if 25C-30C qualifies for that term), and it could be nationwide too. Pressure still building across the whole of UK by T216. Mean 850 uppers above 10C virtually everywhere and - if I'm using the ecart charts correctly, first time I've posted them so please correct me if I'm wrong! - very little spread on the 850s over the UK indicating high confidence.

If these charts work out, we could be in for a classic heatwave which could even rival last year's. The CET will absolutely tank, that's for sure.

 

GFS ensembles for that time - mostly settled but a few members sneak in a UK trough - so a little doubt on the evolution remains: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=216

[phil nw.]

A glance at Naefs and ECM mean 500hPa pattern for day 8 suggests the return to mainly fine and settled conditions after the weekend storms have cleared should continue to the end of next week.

The exception may be the far nw where some Atlantic fronts may bring some cloud and light rain on the odd day.The parent low just to the south of Iceland still forecasted to be close enough to influence things at times up there.

 

 

the T84hrs show heights rebuilding across the UK after the current thundery low starts to fill by Monday.

 

The London Ens graphs show the jump in rainfall in the next 48hrs followed by a dry looking period along with continuing high temperatures,although not quite the heat we are seeing currently.

 

 

so a good week for outdoor and holiday activities is still being modeled-just look out for the weekend storms which could well be quite significant by the look of latest modeling.

Edited July 18, 2014 by phil nw.

[bluearmy]

Looking at the weather for next weekend with the ECM ens. Looking very good but must be treated with extreme cauion as there is little correlation between the NOAA 6-10 and the ECM anomalies. It can be seen that the latter has a mass of warm air to the north and the UK dominated by a strong ridge. NOAA on the other hand has the ridge further east and a trough down to the UK,

 

just to say knocker that the NOAA chart from yesterday is with ecm data thats 24 hours older than the ecm ones posted.

[knocker]

just to say knocker that the NOAA chart from yesterday is with ecm data thats 24 hours older than the ecm ones posted.

 

Good point there blue. Yet another senior moment.

[bluearmy]

and to those who said it wouldnt happen, euro4 shows uppers of 20c across large parts of the se of england and east anglia between midnight and 6am. i think only the gem model was as extreme re 850's with gfs being generally far too conservative on this whole plume.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run is another peach, if, like me you enjoy summery weather, conditions becoming more and more anticyclonic next week due to the growing influence of both the scandi high and then a surge from the azores high towards the end of next week and on top of that, it also looks very warm next week, indeed, the ecm shows the 564 dam line very close to the south throughout and hotting up again across the south at least. This weekend will bring scattered intense thunderstorms with flash flooding but some areas will remain fine, temperatures this weekend won't be as hot as today but warm enough and very humid with 23 celsius being a typical temperature for most areas but hot in the southeast, nearer 27-28c and once the main storm risk subsides on sunday, it will feel somewhat fresher for a short time but then next week becoming very warm again with lots of sunshine, still a risk of isolated storms breaking out but as the anticyclones join forces it looks like becoming sunny and very warm / hot nationwide, no sign of cool atlantic weather breaking through during the next few weeks, the pattern looks very blocked and continental. This is turning into a very good summer

Edited July 18, 2014 by Frosty.

[DTHFCJ]

Indeed Frosty its been a very good summer so far here in sheep land..

 

good agreement between these two as well..........

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

[Frosty.]

Indeed Frosty its been a very good summer so far here in sheep land..

 

good agreement between these two as well..........

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

Yes it's looking good next week, the weather calming down with long sunny periods and temperatures on the up again, mid to high 20's celsius. High pressure could eventually be positioned in the north sea just to the northeast of the uk allowing pressure to fall again to the southeast with the storm risk returning, and possibly the far northwest of the uk could end up having a more atlantic influence but really it's a fantastic spell of summery weather..long may it continue

[Polar Maritime]

Good to see you back Karl

 

Yes a great Summer this is turning out to be, And in the extended outlook going by the Models with plenty of further convective activity.

[Gael_Force]

and to those who said it wouldnt happen, euro4 shows uppers of 20c across large parts of the se of england and east anglia between midnight and 6am. i think only the gem model was as extreme re 850's with gfs being generally far too conservative on this whole plume.

 

I posted the Hirlam yesterday -page 24 - it had 850s of 20c into SE in the early hours of Saturday.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Gael_Force

[bluearmy]

I posted the Hirlam yesterday -page 24 - it had 850s of 20c into SE in the early hours of Saturday.

 

i noted that GF.  knocks - have you seen the NOAA charts this evening. that 6/10 dayer looking more like the ecm mean chart you posted earlier !

[knocker]

i noted that GF.  knocks - have you seen the NOAA charts this evening. that 6/10 dayer looking more like the ecm mean chart you posted earlier !

 

I hadn't but I see what you mean.

Edited July 18, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning is showing the Atlantic back in play by the end/turn of the Month. 

 

 

A long way to go yet with lot's of uncertainty a week out... But for now there's plenty of warm Summery weather to enjoy, With yet more Storm potential.

 

Edited July 19, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The ECM by next weekend. The 500mb anomaly still has the very warm air to the NE connecting to the Azores HP with a trough SE of Greenland.

 

HP over the UK with temps in mid 20sC.

Edited July 19, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

The GFS this morning is showing the Atlantic back in play by the end/turn of the Month. 

 

 

A long way to go yet with lot's of uncertainty a week out... But for now there's plenty of warm Summery weather to enjoy, With yet more Storm potential.

 

ECM also brings in a UK trough by next Sunday - but you know a pattern is blocked when the first whiff of a breakdown is 8 days out! A very summery week still on the cards and more runs needed for beyond that, but this morning's charts ups the uncertainty

[DTHFCJ]

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

looking very warm to hot and more or less  dry........London

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

loving this summer so far,although not steamy hot here its been very pleasant with a mixture of warmth sun and a touch of rain,pretty much perfect growing weather.

Edited July 19, 2014 by DTHFCJ

[Captain Shortwave]

It seems like the ECM just wanted to put low pressure over the UK in the final frames. The day 7-8 transition looks very strange and sees a low essentially do a u-turn from the north easterly track it had up to day 7.

Oddly enough the GEM which has a split flow in the Atlantic for week 2 actually looks the more reasonable solution to me. Fair to say that in retrospect last nights ECM was too biased in the north easterly solution of that low and builds the high too far west initially.

Expect a lot of chopping and changing with regards to that low. Though I have been saying that for the past day or so.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing things settling down next week staying very warm maybe hot for the south where the risk of some thunderstorms could return from mid week

 

[knocker]

To be honest CS I don't anything particularly strange about the ECM evolution of the low

Edited July 19, 2014 by knocker