Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[mushymanrob]

funny thing is, the 12z ecm thats just come out is closer to the gfs anomaly chart i posted earlier and the gfs 12z is closer to the ecm anomaly chart i posted earlier.im looking towards the overnight noaa anomaly charts for an indication as to which solution is closest.i guess in reality the gfs 12z is underplaying hight evolution whilst the ecm 12z is overplaying it.

 

... and the good news (for those looking for sun/heat) is that the noaa charts now suggest that we are more likely to be high influenced then trough, keeping the atlantic trough 'safely' to our west, highest pressure to our east... so really supporting yesterdays ecm 12z, . ok not high pressure dominated, but positioned to our east/northeast which will allow for more southerly heat incursions.

 

 

 

of course we still need more runs to support this suggested upper pattern.

Edited July 15, 2014 by mushymanrob

[Scorcher]

Well we get a thundery low eventually on the ECM

 

But no breakdown as the low slips into Europe and high pressure builds back in

The ECM still has the +16C isotherm clinging onto the East even by Monday.

 

Yes that's another great run for heat lovers, it looks like this could well cling on for most of the weekend now- it's the GFS that seems to be constantly chopping and changing between runs whereas the ECM op has been quite consistent throughout. UKMO also shows no real breakdown this morning.

 

Interesting to see that GFS is predicting 33C just across the channel in Belgium on Friday but only 28C for SE England- to me in that setup you'd expect 30C to be reached quite easily, so I'm not taking those predictions as gospel by any means.

[knocker]

Well the ECM HRES appears to have gone into orbit for Friday and Saturday with temperatures at Tunbridge Wells approaching 33-4C on Saturday. Await the ens to approach earth.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

... and the good news (for those looking for sun/heat) is that the noaa charts now suggest that we are more likely to be high influenced then trough, keeping the atlantic trough 'safely' to our west, highest pressure to our east... so really supporting yesterdays ecm 12z, . ok not high pressure dominated, but positioned to our east/northeast which will allow for more southerly heat incursions.

good1.gif

good2.gif

of course we still need more runs to support this suggested upper pattern.

Mushy is right to say more runs needed but the latter chart screams heatwave to me. Our weather would often be sourced from the south with the trough in that position. Edited July 15, 2014 by rjbw

[shaky]

Amazingly hot charts this morning with pressure building rapidly after the plume this weekend!!only problem is gfs is not agreeing and is the only one forecasting a trough over the uk!!out on its own maybe?...we shall see!

[Frank Trough]

Looking towards the end of the weekend/start of next week the GFS looks pretty underwhelming compared to the Euros. All models look better than they did 3 or 4 days ago but to me (and I stand to be corrected) the UKMO looks to me like it wouldn't take much to end up with a much flatter scenario a la GFS:

 

 

The Euros look almost a bit too clean to me - I hope i'm wrong as i'm off next week but i'm reserving judgement until tomorrow when things get into the more reliable. Is it possible we could end with something of a middle solution as happens sometimes? i.e. flatter than the Euros but not as flat as the GFS?

 

The METO update yesterday suggests to me something more akin to a flatter pattern.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a hot weekend for parts of the country if ECM is correct

 

 

After this temperatures remain very warm for many in the mid to high 20's

 

 

ECM ens showing another rise in pressure next week

 

Edited July 15, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Well the ECM ens has scaled down the HRES temps as expected but still very warm. Looking ahead at the 6-10 anomaly there is an interesting realignment of the ridge slightly to the west and lying SW/NE This could lead to more persistent HP for the UK. This is turning into quite a good summer.

Edited July 15, 2014 by knocker

[shaky]

Pretty big differences on the 06z gfs compared to the 00z!!this run looks much more like the ecm with high pressure building in behind that plume this weekend and temps remaining between 25 and 27 degrees across england into next week!!brilliant stuff!

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z ups the temperatures for the weekend with Sunday having the biggest change not a completely dry weekend as the heat it likely to kick off some thunderstorms

 

 

00z to show the changes

 

 

No surprise to see the heat going into early next week given the changes

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I know these charts are Fl x 100000 but wow, storms and heat galore!!

 

[bluearmy]

To move on. The 500mb anomalies from last night are all moving in the same direction with the ECM and NOAA being the closest. The ridge lying east of the UK into Scandinavia and a trough dipping into mid Atlantic from Greenland.

 

 

Looking at the NOAA 8-14 it appears to be much the same except there is a weakening of the pattern.

 

at the risk of being chastised, i would suggest that the subtle improvement in the 500mb noaa charts between sun and mon is due to the ecm mean being partly used to construct the monday chart as opposed to sundays which was purely gefs/gem. infact the noaa discussion states that the ecm 00z mean from yesterday was heavily weighted in the output.

[knocker]

at the risk of being chastised, i would suggest that the subtle improvement in the 500mb noaa charts between sun and mon is due to the ecm mean being partly used to construct the monday chart as opposed to sundays which was purely gefs/gem. infact the noaa discussion states that the ecm 00z mean from yesterday was heavily weighted in the output.

 

Interesting bluearmy. Yes I believe I can hear JH getting the cane ready for the back of the legs. Is there a particular reason why NOAA adopts this practice that you are aware of?

[mushymanrob]

Mushy is right to say more runs needed but the latter chart screams heatwave to me. Our weather would often be sourced from the south with the trough in that position.

 

... and on cue....

 

 

pity the gfs side didnt post up. but you cant get a much better anomaly chart then this IF you like sunshine and heat...plus a decent thunderstorm risk too! in all, the anomaly charts are now heading in the right direction (from a heat lovers bias). theres plenty of reason now to be optimistic, anomaly supporting the ops...

 

and to think some idiot reckoned we were heading for another 2012

[IDO]

Looking like the main thundery output will be Saturday, morning for the south, later for the Midlands. The UKMO have just put up their first warning:   Here.

The possible thundery low on Friday probably more uncertain, though it does appear to be more concentrated to the western fringes:

This morning's ECM OP looks unlikely, an outlier for temps compared to the mean from D7:

Ditto the GFS op (for uppers): 

The mean pressure suggests to me a N/S split:

ENS: D11 mean:

Lots of uncertainty from Monday, though a pressure build again, initially for the south, looking reasonable.

 

 

[johnholmes]

at the risk of being chastised, i would suggest that the subtle improvement in the 500mb noaa charts between sun and mon is due to the ecm mean being partly used to construct the monday chart as opposed to sundays which was purely gefs/gem. infact the noaa discussion states that the ecm 00z mean from yesterday was heavily weighted in the output.

Never ladand knocker go to the back of the clawBeing seriou it matters not one jot, anomly charts like any other model output should only be used if consistent with one another over several days.Bloody hard work typing on an iPad!, Edited July 15, 2014 by johnholmes

[IDO]

Just to add with reference to ECM performance, last week I mentioned GFS and GEM had spotted a tropical storm (typhoon):

Now named as Rammasun it took nearly a week for ECM to finally catch up with the other models, and that was on this morning's run: it has just now hit the Phillipines!!!:

Even more impressive that as a whole GFS nailed the track. I think ECM struggles with major pattern changes and events. Of course it is not always wrong but its recent performances have been poor compared to its lofty reputation. Its D10 correlation continues to fall , now nearly 40% below the past Winter's figures:

And worse of the main models. Interestingly it is 0.42 compared to 0.25 for the Southern Hemisphere at D10. I don't know what has gone wrong as it is still the one to follow up to D8?

So when I see these mean charts supporting the op I make a cautionary note, as the mean since its upgrade has a bias towards its op more often than not. Saying that, I believe both the ECM and GFS ensembles have spotted a possible return of higher pressure, though as is ECM's want, it does over amplify these changes.

Edited July 15, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 12z showing another rise in pressure early next week after a thundery weekend

 

 

By Monday pressure is on the rise

 

[mushymanrob]

hmm..... so its the ecm and ukmo vs the gfs again.whilst the ukmo and ecm go for a decent pressure build early next week, the gfs refuses to build the pressure quite so much and brings in the atlantic trough deeper and closer to the uk.the gfs (12z) might not be displaying what some of us hope it to (agreeing with the other two) but it cannot be discounted. i think the ecm anomaly chart i posted although a superb chart (for heat biased ) its likely to be too progressive and has over amplified the rise is pressure next week.to my eyes, the gfs 12z is a very plausible evolution. it wouldnt surprise me if both the ecm and ukmo modify their future outputs and drops the expected pressure rise early next wee to be more inline with the 12z gfs.i believe that both possible evolutions could be found within the range of the noaa anomaly charts, im sure if this is not the case ill be corrected

[Captain Shortwave]

hmm..... so its the ecm and ukmo vs the gfs again.

whilst the ukmo and ecm go for a decent pressure build early next week, the gfs refuses to build the pressure quite so much and brings in the atlantic trough deeper and closer to the uk.

the gfs (12z) might not be displaying what some of us hope it to (agreeing with the other two) but it cannot be discounted. i think the ecm anomaly chart i posted although a superb chart (for heat biased ) its likely to be too progressive and has over amplified the rise is pressure next week.

to my eyes, the gfs 12z is a very plausible evolution. it wouldnt surprise me if both the ecm and ukmo modify their future outputs and drops the expected pressure rise early next wee to be more inline with the 12z gfs.

i believe that both possible evolutions could be found within the range of the noaa anomaly charts, im sure if this is not the case ill be corrected

Well the GFS was too flat for this week at the timeframe we are talking about. I suspect in time the GFS will dig that Atlantic trough a little further south. Either way it looks like the cool down will be to warm/very warm conditions rather than anything average, let alone cool.

GEM this afternoon is pretty similar to what the ECM was showing this morning

The temperature predictions from GEM show high twenties or even up to 30C any day in it's output next week. So all up for grabs. We still need to get the weekend nailed first.

 

It seems to not matter how good or bad a summer is, we always get that one day where temperatures will get close to 32C/90F. That day looks likely to be Friday. The GFS is predicting 29C widely, the GEM looks like the low 30s based off the chart.

[IDO]

^^^ Yes no change from the 12z GEFS for around D9. They are still showing three different clusters, none convincing. The control supports the op:

 

 

Some are N/S split favouring the south:

 

 

Some are closer to ECM:

 

 

So I would not rule anything out and I am fence sitting for the moment.

[Cloud 10]

 Also worth noting is that the GEFS mean has been out performing the ECM mean on all parameters (D1, 3, 5, 6, 8 & 10), significantly on some:

 

 

 

Do you have a link to those stats?

[IDO]

Do you have a link to those stats?

 

 

The link for the Ensemble mean verification for the 0z runs is here.

 

Link for all the verification stats are here.

Edited July 15, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Cloud 10]

The link for the Ensemble mean verification for the 0z runs is here.

 

Link for all the verification stats are here.

 

Thanks for that,those are the same links i have but the ECM seems to be missing from the graphs?

[Captain Shortwave]

Good gravy!!!!! 

850s of +18 - 20C across the South east, there are going to be some big storms along the dividing line between this very hot airmass and the cooler Atlantic air.

 

The ECM is again going for a very warm/hot easterly next week

 

The ECM again has to carry some significant weight given the timeframes involved.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave