Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[knocker]

Following on from the above the ECM and GFS with some slight variation is silimilar with the ridge to the E/NE and the trough in the eastern Atlantic.

 

What about he weekend. The Jet is still in prime position on Saturday and looking at the 850 and 700mb charts Saturday would appear to still be, shall we say, interesting. But I'm mindful of the METO comments yesterday so still keeping an open mind on any specific developments. Will be watching their take on this with interest.

 

Edited July 16, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

No real change this morning, still looks very stormy this coming weekend. Next again will see the Azores high link up with the Scandi ridge and build pressure once again. The question is where the Atlantic/High pressure battleground will set up, and hence how the surface conditions pan out. The two scenarios are either that conditions immediately turn hot and sunny after the weekend (ECM/UKMO).

 

Or the Atlantic encroaches further east to bright slightly fresher weather during the first half of next week before the Azores high gets another kick to re-enforce the Euro/Scandi ridge and hence perhaps another plume event. GEM shows this quite well

GFS is similar to the GEM though flatter.

 

Next week either way looks good.

Edited July 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

 Another run from UKMO which shows pressure building next week

 

 

Rain at times in the north & west but away from here a dry and warm start to next week maybe very warm towards the SE

[knocker]

The ecm ens for next week has the anomaly dominated by the Scandinavian/Azores ridge bringing HP over the UK with above average temps.

Edited July 16, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

That's some ensemble mean for London - 850s around 12C from D5 to D13 days. So warm or hot throughout. Not completely dry though:

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

To answer my observation here on the 9th July regarding the following quoted section "D8 to D10 (Mid-July) is the key timeframe now as to what unfolds thereafter, will the heat continue into the final ten days of July?"

 

See here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80760-model-output-discussion-3062014-onwards-covering-july/?p=3000106

 

A resounding YES has to be the definitive answer so far at least.

 

And then three days ago the ECM 12z mean was hinting at HP influence as picked up by CS, my response at the time was

"Precisely how I see things developing in fact, a three day hot spell then a thundery breakdown and after next weekend when it'll only get down to near normal Temps for most, a reload of the suggested pattern. Any cooler weather is looking short-lived as can be expected from traditional spells of UK heatwaves at this time of year."

 

Whether that's true of the time of year, some might argue against it but the SE of England in particular and no exclusively so, are going to witness some High Temperatures and Humidities in the coming days. Sleepless nights forthcoming for sure and it all starts tonight with a minimum of 18c being suggested in the larger conurbations down South.

 

A couple of Fax Chart outputs which are our best guide to the UK synoptics of the near future.

 

Friday evening, the stormy fun and games start to begin for some.

 

 

By Saturday afternoon, things look very messy but suffice to say, there will be a lot of downpours around (official forecasts appear very confident on this aspect IMO)

 

 

By Sunday afternoon, its eyes trained to the SW of England for a build of High Pressure and a period of drier weather which then takes us to the final ten days of July.

 

 

Cool weather a rarity in the coming weeks I'd say, this coming Saturday within the downpours being the current date to note for some respite from the heat but even then, that's debatable if you reside in the SouthEast.

Edited July 16, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

A quick chance for me to glance at the morning's output. GFS has unquestionably moved toward ECM since Monday regrettably but even so this is the extent of the incursion of the hot air:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071606/gfs-1-72.png?6

 

Saturday morning on the 06Z Operational output.  In 2m temperature terms, Friday looks as though it might sneak 30c in London:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071606/gfs-9-54.png?6

 

By this time next week, we're back to more sensible levels of 25c or so:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071606/gfs-9-174.png?6

 

ECM 00Z this morning:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071600/ECM0-72.GIF?16-12

 

ECM has consistently made more of this heat plume than GFS and brings a much stronger core north across Europe though in UK terms it's not too different to GFS.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071600/ECM1-240.GIF?16-12

 

The main chart shows the UK in the trough between the Azores HP and the Scandinavian HP which is exactly where fans of heat don't want us to be. That said, this has been modelled before without coming anywhere near fruition.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071600/gem-1-72.png?00

 

GEM for Saturday afternoon from the 00Z chart. Same as ECM but both showing the core of heat passing over the Low Countries and the SE/East Anglia catching a glancing blow.

 

Signs of another plume for the end of next week but this isn't really shown elsewhere as yet. GEM have been the most aggressive for heat over the past few days so it'll be interesting to see if this is replicated on other models by the weekend:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071600/gem-0-192.png?00

 

Next week looks reasonably warm but (GEM apart) there's no sign of a second plume on the horizon. It may be the warmest weather of the year is 24-48 hours away.

 

Here on the other hand is a REAL Scandy HP:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014071506/run/cfs-0-5436.png?06

[Summer Sun]

After a thundery weekend for some next week looks like it will settle down with showers becoming more isolated and triggered off by the afternoon heat

 

 

GFS is still rolling out but it doesn't look like the heat will be going anytime soon

 

UKMO looking good for Tuesday with pressure building in nicely

 

Edited July 16, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS finally moves to the ECM solution of the last 24 or so hours

Light easterly across the south, southerly in the north, probably sunny for near enough everyone. Just the outside chance of an isolated sharp shower.

The GFS shows temperatures around the 25-28C mark nationwide, but you could see 30C being reached from Tuesday onwards based on these charts. You don't need monster plumes to generate hot weather.

This is pretty much perfect for me.

 

UKMO gracefully follows

 

And the GEM

Edited July 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Costa Del Fal]

Next week ever looking increasingly dry and very warm or even hot now. Could see those heatwave warnings upgraded to a Level 3 for a time? Too early to go in much detail but quite possibly the best spell of weather (for most of us!) this Summer coming up.

 

In terms of this Friday/Saturday, liitle change on the GFS in regards to thundery potential. Looks decent for thundery rain for the Scilly Isles, Cornwall, Devon and later into Ireland. A risk of something more scattered for Somerset, Wales and the West Midlands region. Then Friday night and early Saturday still looks concentrated to the East but it looks like the front may back West currently and thus bring much of the Midlands and perhaps NW England into play once more.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 10 GFS mean

Yeah it's still there, it's been a long time since we had a limpet high instead of a limpet low.

This could last into my summer holiday during the final week of July

[Milhouse]

I picked up on the first signs of a pressure rise next week quite a while ago. We were looking at a period of unsettled conditions with low pressure hanging around for 4/5 days. But now we have thundery downpours for Friday and Saturday. These fizzling out on Sunday and Monday sees two areas of high pressure joining forces perfectly over the UK. Next week on the GFS12z  looks every bit as warm and summery as last July.

[bluearmy]

Although ecm has had a few issues over the past month, the last week or so has re inforced why it is ' the daddy'. i wonder what the 7/10 day stats will show in a couple of weeks, once this current period has had a chance to feed into them.

[Milhouse]

And the warmth stays with us too

 

[stodge]

Regrettably it's looking as though we may have to contend with the heat into next week though it's to be hoped that the humidity will dissipate after the weekend. Tuesday looks a potentially very warm or hot day:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071612/gfs-9-144.png?12

 

Apart from that, mid 20s which will be fine if the humidity stays low. After the weekend's perturbations a fairly calm week seems increasingly likely.

 

GEM not quite as warm/hot as GFS at the same point:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071612/gem-9-144.png?12

 

The bulk of the GEM 12Z Operational keeps the 12c isotherm close to the UK so warm or very warm at times but no further plume and indeed signs on both output of a more pronounced cool off toward the end of the month but that's a very long way off. 

[bluearmy]

yes stodge - we are looking at the two week modelling raising a mid atlantic ridge towards month end. i guess what happens to our northeast will dictate whether we cool down significantly. perhaps a west based -NAO could keep us warm ?

 

today's 12z's have backed the pattern west a tad on saturday which could bring the highest 850's of this plume into east anglia and kent. perhaps saturday could see 90f+ reached in se england. 

Edited July 16, 2014 by bluearmy

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM still trying to get the 20C isotherm into the south east on Saturday

The front/trough looks to be affecting central areas so maybe the far east could bag another hot sultry day out of this set up.

Sunday does look a little cooler, before high pressure takes command into next week.

850s for Monday would suggest another 30C day could be possible in the south (850s of 12-15C)

Edited July 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[phil nw.]

A real taste of high Summer for us with the heat building towards 30C by Friday then the storms following in to Saturday as humid Atlantic air comes against the continental heat ahead.

 

The T72hrs fax and GFS charts for Saturday morning shows the setup that will likely spark some quite intense downpours.

 

 

It looks like drying out then as pressure starts to rise quickly into the next week with the Azores high ridging right across the UK keeping any Atlantic activity out to the northwest.

We can see good agreement on this from the 12z t144hr GFS/UKMO/ECM 500hPa charts

 

so the trend to a weaker Atlantic jet and therefore a much warmer and more widespread outlook now for next week than compared to a few days ago gathers more support.

Away from some coasts where there may be some cloud and cooler breezes at times it looks pretty good now.A lot of dry weather,sunshine and high temperatures quite widely.

A look at 3 ens. graphs show this outlook after the weekend storms have passed through

 

and to finish off a very Summery looking GFS mean for the end of next week

 

no sign of a shake up to this quiet Atlantic spell at the moment with a lot of warm air around nw Europe and the UK likely to persist under the extensive ridge next week-good timing for the main holiday period now upon us.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gael_Force]

The Hirlam gets the 20c into a wedge of the SE at 06z Saturday.

 

 

...and a  MCS on the western flank.

 

Edited July 16, 2014 by Gael_Force

[stodge]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071612/ECM0-72.GIF?16-0

 

As might be expected, the ECM 12Z is more aggressive on the heat build up than GFS and as some argue, 30c is more than possible though cloud cover will play a huge role in that.

 

The 12c hangs around on Monday and the remnants of the hot air cling on to East Anglia but by this time next week, the warmth is left but the heat is gone and something much more amenable on offer,

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071612/ECM1-192.GIF?16-0

 

A short-lived E'ly seemingly on the way out and an interesting evolution. Unfortunately I fear all this will do is draw up a S'ly flow and bring a return of the heat and humidity. 

[bluearmy]

the 12z ecm op goes 'cut off upper troughtastic' which is never a recipe for model reliability, especially in fi. 

[Captain Shortwave]

the 12z ecm op goes 'cut off upper troughtastic' which is never a recipe for model reliability, especially in fi. 

The ECM is twitching and starting to sharpen the Atlantic trough from around day 5. This is worth watching, if any low cuts off and sinks towards the south west of the UK, then we are going to start to see some interesting (stunning/dreadful depending on your view of said certain synoptic) charts.

On an unrelated note, the Metoffice are using the word hot again in their 6-15 day outlook. Interesting......

Edited July 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[stodge]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071612/ECM1-240.GIF?16-0

 

The ECM finishes "confusing" - the pressure set up would offer a light NW'ly and would keep us warm rather than hot as the S'ly is kept well at bay. Interesting evolution.

[Cloud 10]

ECM looks thundery again towards the end of next as heights begin to fall but still with

plenty of warmth.

 

[Man With Beard]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071612/ECM1-240.GIF?16-0 The ECM finishes "confusing" - the pressure set up would offer a light NW'ly and would keep us warm rather than hot as the S'ly is kept well at bay. Interesting evolution.

Too far out to make a proper forecast but if ECM had a T264 or T288, I think we'd hit the bullseye with the Spanish plume. 20C 850s on the Kent coast again for Saturday midday, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 33C around Gravesend if any storm activity is held west of there.