Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[carinthian]

Good to see you back Karl

 

Yes a great Summer this is turning out to be, And in the extended outlook going by the Models with plenty of further convective activity.

Hi PM, Have been following your summer with interest. Looking good with plenty of warm sunshine and thundery days thrown in. Just how summers should be. Could turn out to be a classic. You all deserve a nice summer after that depressing, frost free winter and flooding.

[knocker]

The ECM ens is even more bullish with 500mb anomaly.

Edited July 19, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

The persistence of the Scandi blocking ridge is quite notable so far this Summer.

It's preventing the Atlantic systems pushing much cooler conditions through nw Europe and indeed we retain much of the current heat through the coming week,especially further south and east where 30C could well be on the cards again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

 

The Atlantic trough looks like having another dig at the Uk towards the end of the week and again we could well see another thundery episode as it comes up against the hot continental air.

Edited July 19, 2014 by phil nw.

[Snowyowl9]

Notice a weakening front coming in from the NE Tuesday,maybe disappear by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

[knocker]

A quick glance at the GFS 12z and a simplistic summary would be the Scandinavian and Azores HP areas remain connected resulting in little precipitation and max temps ranging from mid 70s to possibly mid 80s in places with little wind.. That's up to Friday. In other words a fine week. A breakdown on Sunday with a depression moving in from the NW. But of course this isn't written in stone.

[Costa Del Fal]

Any breakdown a good week away and it may indeed occur a week away but imo its quite likely this will be delayed somewhat. Scandi Blocks tend not to give up very easily and its quite often anyway we see the initial breakdown pushed back somewhat.

[Milhouse]

This time next week high pressure very much in control on the ECM 12z. Winds look to be coming from a generally NE direction but with light winds it should promote some high temperatures across southern and western areas. All week it looks a very summery picture with plenty of dry weather and temps in the mid to high 20s across many areas.

 

[knocker]

The ECM HRES isn't buying it anyway. The warm air to the NE is still dominate on the 500 anomaly although it has a weird little upper low mid Atlantic.

Edited July 19, 2014 by knocker

[SteveB]

It looks set to be a lovely warm week coming up with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures around.

 

The odd shower can't be ruled out, but all in all not bad.

 

 

 

 

The weather looks to stay settled into next weekend too.

Edited July 19, 2014 by SteveB

[phil nw.]

The 12z runs are looking at prolonging fine and warm conditions now into week 2.

ECM in particular showing the jet well north of the UK next week end as heights situate across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

GFS mean non to shabby either again with an anticyclonic outlook into day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif

 

UK model also showing the Atlantic troughing on the retreat to the nw as the high builds across the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

again that Scandi block still in evidence with any weak Atlantic energy being thwarted as comes towards Europe.

 

[Frosty.]

WOW there has been a big turnaround on the Ecm 12z op run, it now looks a lot more settled during it's later frames compared to the 00z which showed a trough slap bang over the uk later in FI, the 12z shows a major anticyclone gradually becoming centred to the northwest but it's influence covers the whole of the uk with very warm and fine weather dominating. In the meantime we have more severe storms to come before high pressure building down from the northeast and building up from the southwest put's a lid on the atmosphere and stops the big shower clouds from building, however, it may only be temporary respite for the south as another weakness could extend up from the near continent with the threat of storms increasing again for a time later next week but then the ecm shows a more generally settled spell taking control, interestingly on this run there would be no atlantic breakdown for the northwest of the uk as was mentioned in today's met office update. I think it's good news that there is no end in sight to the warm / very warm temperatures, no sign of cool atlantic weather for a long time yet.

 

PS..thanks to all those who welcomed me back..it's much appreciated guys.

[JoeShmoe]

Welcome back Frosty, one of the better posters who is here all year not just november to march

Edited July 19, 2014 by JoeShmoe

[Man With Beard]

GFS 18Z much more on track with the Euros from T168 onwards, HP dominant. I wonder if we may end up with a UK high like last year or the classic one of 1995. Still, in the closer outlook, just enough potential for something a little less settled (lower heights) next weekend but that's merely a hint ATM.

[knocker]

A quick look at the NOAA and ECM anomalies before proceeding quietly. (note to self, Make sure you get the rightt charts numpty)

 

On the 6-10 both NOAA and the ECM have the ridge to the east of the UK with the Greenland trough nudging down towards the UK. In the longer term NOAA continues this eastward evolution with the trough now predominate. Speculating on not substantial evidence this could indicate less chance of a permanent HP set up over the UK

 

Edited July 20, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The ECM HRES 00z anomaly for the has the warm air to the NE with a ridge extending to the Azores HP. It also has a cutoff upper low west of spain which would seem to remove the chances of another plume. So still HP dominating with above average temps around 25C in England.

Edited July 20, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM HRES 00z anomaly for the has the warm air to the NE with a ridge extending to the Azores HP. It also has a cutoff upper low west of spain which would seem to remove the chances of another plume. So still HP dominating with above average temps around 25C in England.

Actually the low west of Spain would push some very hot air northwards along the eastern flank of the low. Both the ECM and GEM shows conditions turning very hot over France into week 2. Still uncertainty over where this little low will go and the models have made very large changes compared to yesterday.

GEM as an example for the heat building

 

ECM/GEM and UKMO show the Azores high ridging in over the top of this low next weekend with it becoming cutoff west of Spain. We will see some destabilisation over the UK as this process occurs meaning showers will perhaps become more widespread for a time next weekend. If the low does indeed become cut off west of Portugal. Then we are at a crossorads with regards to week 2, this being dependent of the strength of the build of heights from the Azores and hence how far north this heat can get.

The ECM looks quite weak and it stays south of the UK

GEM on the other hand is a little stronger

The GEM has 850s of 18C pushing into the south by day 10. So there is potential there for possibly the hottest spell of weather of the year developing in week 2 if things fall into place.

 

Any unsettled weather looks more showery and seemingly at the moment to show little signs of lasting very long.

Edited July 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Actually the low west of Spain would push some very hot air northwards along the eastern flank of the low. Both the ECM and GEM shows conditions turning very hot over France into week 2. Still uncertainty over where this little low will go and the models have made very large changes compared to yesterday.

GEM as an example for the heat building

 

 

 

That's true but the ECM has the low moving east into France thus moving the northward movement of the hot air (and restricting it)  in same direction. Of course this is all speculation anyway.

Edited July 20, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Still uncertainty over where this little low will go and the models have made very large changes compared to yesterday.

 

Yes Cap't, Some big swings in the Models regarding that small Low with continued uncertainty.

 

 

Small changes will make a big difference reg surface detail. The GFS is showing a very showery outlook towards the end of the Month, Cloud cover could also be a problem. Hopefully detail will firm up on this over the next few days.

Edited July 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

Looking at op run detail post day 7 will only result in confusion! Take the overall message of op upper pattern and see how it fits with the mean/spreads. It's clearly interesting to speculate about whether a low will become cut off or even be there but sometimes I wonder if visitors to the thread appreciate that it's just speculation at that range.

[knocker]

Well I did say, "Of course this is all speculation anyway".

[Polar Maritime]

Well I did say, "Of course this is all speculation anyway".

 

We are all "Speculating with uncertainty" Knock, Just like the Models

[SteveB]

Good morning,

 

GFS is still showing a warm/hot week ahead, but from Thursday onwards the threat of thundery showers increases.

 

 

 

 

Not a bad outlook coming up if you ask me, more heat and storms. This is surely becoming a Summer to remember for all the good reasons.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing the potential for some heavy showers to develop in the south later in the week which could be heavy in the south they could also be thundery these should begin to ease once high pressure from the west begins to move in

 

[mushymanrob]

A quick look at the NOAA and ECM anomalies before proceeding quietly. (note to self, Make sure you get the rightt charts numpty)

 

On the 6-10 both NOAA and the ECM have the ridge to the east of the UK with the Greenland trough nudging down towards the UK. In the longer term NOAA continues this eastward evolution with the trough now predominate. Speculating on not substantial evidence this could indicate less chance of a permanent HP set up over the UK

 

im a big 'fan' of the anomaly charts, they are a pretty good indicator of the general synoptic pattern we could get. im not so keen on the 8-14 dayer though as its accuracy must be much lower then the 6-10 (talking noaa).however, the noaa 8-14 does indicate a possible return to westerly, trough dominated weather and the gfs for some time has tried to bring in the atlantic so far to no avail.

 

 

here again in fi it suggests atlantic trough domination which would tie in to the noaa 8-14 dayer.  the other point is that in recent years august hasnt been good. its been average at best, its been 11 years now since i lost work due to drought stressed grass in august, thats unusual as before 03 it was quite common. both 06 and last years great julys degraded into 'poor'- average and whilst temps have been ok, sunshine hasnt. (its not all about temps).

 

perhaps this time the noaa 8-14 dayer and gfs might be onto something?  cynically it could be said with certainty that sooner or later the atlantic weather will become the dominant force. hopefully not yet...

[Frosty.]

Another peachy Ecm run this morning, the 00z is dominated by high pressure and very warm temperatures nationwide, the upper air (T850 hPa) is generally at +10 to +12 and occasionally +15 or thereabouts for the south and east as the 564 dam line ebbs and flows, the cooler and more unsettled anomalies associated with the PFJ are kept well to the northwest / north of the uk and it's only by T+240 hours that the far northwest of the uk could possibly be influenced by a break away trough drifting slowly southeast from iceland, at the same time, another hot thundery plume event pushes into the south. It's generally all good news for summery conditions to continue as the overall pattern remains slow moving for at least the next 10 days and hopefully beyond that, there are subtle differences from the 12z last night but the uk weather looks set to carry on with very warm weather, occasionally very humid with a risk of Tstorms, especially for the south. The scandi & azores high's link up early in the week which puts a lid on the atmosphere for a time and from then on, anticyclonic weather dominates with long sunny periods and light winds with temperatures soaring well into the 70's and 80's F for many days to come...BANK

 

PS...thanks JoeShmoe for your comment last night

Edited July 20, 2014 by Frosty.