Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

[Frosty.]

These charts are a joy to look at on tonight's Ecm 12z operational run, spanish plume conditions pushing northwards to all parts of the uk with hot hazy sunshine, increasing humidity and then thunderstorms. It looks like there will be spectacular storms spreading up from the sizzling continent, especially friday night and through saturday with some homegrown storms being sparked before then too. Looking further ahead, the pressure charts show a very blocked pattern with high pressure to the northeast, a large scandi anticyclone and no sign of the usual atlantic weather breaking through whatsoever so it's likely to stay very warm or hot and becoming generally fine after the very thundery end to this week, most of next week looks dry and sunny with mid to high 20's celsius nationwide as pressure rises, perfect BBQ weather. I think the ecm is performing very well at the moment.. Enjoy the HEATWAVE guys.somewhere across the east and southeast will break the 90F very soon.CHEERS

[damianslaw]

Just as we enter high summer and the start of the school holidays, bingo we see the first proper sustained warm/very warm/locally hot spell of the season, albeit a rather unsettled spell at least to start with, so not quite classic summer weather for the rest of the week, hot humid thundery weather isn't everyone's cup of tea.

 

Next week though promises plenty of dry very warm sunny conditions with high pressure anchored to the NE propped up by ridging of the azores high and the jet on a crash course for Iceland/Greenland - if what the models are showing verifies. Very pleasing to see for anyone off on holidays in the UK - charts reminiscent of last July.

 

Caution as ever.. we need to keep an eye on trough behaviour to our NW.., certainly far too early to call we are in for a lengthy very warm dry sunny spell of weather.

 

Its been a good first half to summer, by no means exceptional, but easily the best since 2006 in terms of dry sunny warm weather.

 

The lack of 'cold synoptics' relative to the time of year has been a notable feature of the last 12 months... after lengthy spells of such synoptics at times between 2007 and spring 2013.

 

One or two people are comparing this year to 1990 so far... 2014 has been very different in terms of copious amounts of rainfall especially early on, though the last 2 months in the main have been dry in many places - but not especially so.

[knocker]

The ECM ens anomaly still has the Scandinavian/Azores ridge dominating with the trough to the west of the UK. Leading to general HP conditions with above average temps.

Edited July 16, 2014 by knocker

[claret047]

These charts are a joy to look at on tonight's Ecm 12z operational run, spanish plume conditions pushing northwards to all parts of the uk with hot hazy sunshine, increasing humidity and then thunderstorms. It looks like there will be spectacular storms spreading up from the sizzling continent, especially friday night and through saturday with some homegrown storms being sparked before then too. Looking further ahead, the pressure charts show a very blocked pattern with high pressure to the northeast, a large scandi anticyclone and no sign of the usual atlantic weather breaking through whatsoever so it's likely to stay very warm or hot and becoming generally fine after the very thundery end to this week, most of next week looks dry and sunny with mid to high 20's celsius nationwide as pressure rises, perfect BBQ weather. I think the ecm is performing very well at the moment.. Enjoy the HEATWAVE guys.somewhere across the east and southeast will break the 90F very soon.CHEERS

Welcome back Frosty. It is good to read your enthusiastic posts again. Saturday looks very promising for storms.

Kind Regards

[mushymanrob]

 Apart from that, mid 20s which will be fine if the humidity stays low.off.

not sure humidity will be low next week, after all the expected thundery activity there will be alot of moisture around and in quite calm conditions humidity could be an issue.

[bluearmy]

tomorrow could be 32/33c in the se and then we have a warm front pushing across!! Crazy times indeed

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

tomorrow could be 32/33c in the se and then we have a warm front pushing across!! Crazy times indeed

Lol when you put it like that ba ! Very hot weather coming our way by our standards , a nice lovely week next week aswell , a lovely summer this is turning out to be

[SteveB]

Well, the output from the GFS this morning is a thing of beauty if you like heat and thunderstorms

 

Next week is looking warm/hot for most, so perfect for the start of the school holidays.

 

Time to get the paddling pools & BBQ out.

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Very little worth saying as the outlook for the UK is pretty similar, so what could change beyond this coming weekend. Well we do have a little tropical system running into the mid Atlantic

The UKMO and GEM also see this system, the GFS does not. Systems like this do have a habit of changing the output so it will be interesting to see how things develop. At day 7, it looks like the ECM is trying to phase the two lows. 

At the moment next week looks very warm near enough everywhere, locally hot. Still have this weekends fun to get through first and yes 32/33C is very likely tomorrow, backed up by the BBC forecast this morning.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

It doesn't look like this heat will be leaving anytime soon GFS shows it lasting all next week, Monday looks the "coolest" day of the week for the south with temperatures in the low to mid 20's back close to 30c from Tuesday

 

 

A few isolated showers next week but thats it

 

Edited July 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[BlueHedgehog074]

(I don't intend this post to be all about me or anything, but just want to apologise about my post on here last night. The post itself wasn't necessarily off-topic, but I admit the sunbathing picture I included was a little inappropriate, so I suppose it's not too surprising the post got deleted. I guess I got too carried away).

As for the models, GFS, ECMWF and UKMO seem to be continuing the idea of developing High Pressure to our North or North-East next week, with some sort of thundery/rainy breakdown still looking likely this weekend. As you'd expect, things are still likely to change somewhat next week, but it looks like a pattern where Northern areas would probably remain the most settled being closer to the High Pressure to the North or North-East. Would perhaps need to be careful that the High Pressure doesn't go too far North or North-East as it could still let Low Pressure systems in from the West or North-West (though they'd probably fill-out quite quickly anyway). However, having said that, they could help introduce further thundery breakdowns which would please those after more storms.

[IDO]

Some interesting charts showing up in FI with the cut off low: GFS 06z: 

 

FI looks like higher pressure is never to far away and the warm uppers look like staying with us for the next 10 days, so even with the introduction of a shallow area  of lower pressure from the NW around D7, it looks to remain warm for many. The models all handle this differently as does the GEFS so high confidence till D6 but uncertainty after.

 

In the shorter term the fireworks for Saturday is edging west the nearer we get. Lots of uncertainty but the latest GFS 06z has gone this way:

 

 

The updated UKMO area at risk (here) has now moved to cover western areas.

 

 

 

 

[alr1970]

Marvellous agreement on warm conditions up here out to this time next week:

[knocker]

The ECM ens 5-9 anomaly has the very warm to the NE still with connecting ridge from Azores with a trough SE of Greenland. The jet takes a rapid bender around the strong heights to the NE which is good news.

 

So surface wise the UK still under the influence of HP with above average temps.

Edited July 17, 2014 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

the way the gfs 12z is going, its looking more southeasterly next week, we could import some poor air quality and milky skies if the airflow is south of east.

[Captain Shortwave]

Both the GFS and GEM want to bring in some warmer 850s from the East from the middle of next week. 

 

Both see temperatures climbing into the low 30s in the south. The UKMO throws a bowling ball cut off low and a ridge towards Greenland, that evolution again.

 

We also still have no agreement on the low in the mid Atlantic, both on track and whether it actually exists.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[stodge]

Well, the horrible heat and humidity are with us but for how long and in what way ?

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071712/gfs-0-6.png?12?12

 

GFS 12Z Operational at T+144 and the question for midweek of next week is whether a continental flow will set up. GFS has a flabby area of HP from Eastern Scotland to Denmark and that draws a weak very farm SE'ly flow.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014071712/gfs-9-144.png?12

 

Mid to high 20s on offer but warm or very warm across the whole of the British Isles.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071712/gem-9-144.png?12

 

GEM 12Z very similar.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014071712/gem-0-144.png?12

 

A more clearly-defined HP over Scandinavia bringing an E'ly wind across much of England. It doesn't endure and by the end of the output the Atlantic is back.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014071712/UW144-21.GIF?17-18

 

UKMO has a much less pronounced continental airflow and indeed the Atlantic is showing its hand.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071712/ECM0-144.GIF?17-0

 

ECM 12Z warm but not as hot as either GFS or GEM at that time.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014071712/ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

 

However, that's a very settled-looking chart though it remains to be seen where we would go. I wonder if the HP will set up over the UK or perhaps more to the North or North-West.

 

We'll soon see...

 

Likely to turn a bit cooler later

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014071612/run/cfs-0-3864.png?12

[Man With Beard]

The lack of comments tonight reflect the stalement in the models. Although HP never really sets up shop over the UK next week, the Atlantic doesn't get anywhere near close enough to influence.

Perhaps something that is not being talked about is the amount of precipitation next week. Early part of the week is mainly dry, but by the end of the week, a combination of the heat (daily maxes between 25C and 30C) and not particularly high pressure values could lead to some localised storms, particularly inland. I'm a bit loathe to use GFS rainfall charts but it's about the only thing I can use to show the potential:

Next weekend and beyond, aside GFS op plenty of settled charts around - but one has to be careful because when only average heights are in place, a breakdown scenario can emerge even at T144.

Edited July 17, 2014 by rjbw

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op is another dream run for warmth & heat with 564 dam thicknesses encroaching into the south & east of the uk at times (+10 to 15 T850 hPa) and very warm or hot surface conditions. In the short term we have a major thundery breakdown on the way with severe storms rumbling northwards from the scorching near continent and homegrown storms also being triggered by our own heatwave and soaring humidity as a spanish plume continues to extend northwards to most of the uk. By early next week the ecm shows high pressure to the northeast (scandi anticyclone) linking up with an azores ridge building in which would bring more benign conditions with lots of sunshine and temperatures into the mid to high 20's celsius nationwide, perhaps the low 30's celsius for the southeast. It's a very blocked looking pattern with any changes likely to be slow so hopefully we won't see any cool atlantic weather for a long time.

 

This is classic mid summer weather, it doesn't get much better than this in the uk..ENJOY

[ANYWEATHER]

The thunderstorms in the next few day look unlikely to clear the very warm humid weather away into next week. Yes ,we will be relieved of the stifling conditions on Friday and Saturday, but still very warm and humid is the outlook. Pressure tries to build from both the southwest and northeast eroded by the Euro low and Atlantic low. Next week looks very good if you like high summer, there will be some pop up thunderstorms, but generally very warm and humid weather for next week, Have I ever mentioned the "Garden of Eden" Summer.

Edited July 17, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[bobbydog]

according to the GFS storm risk charts, on the 29th july we can expect a lemur

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The lack of comments tonight reflect the stalement in the models. Although HP never really sets up shop over the UK next week, the Atlantic doesn't get anywhere near close enough to influence.

Perhaps something that is not being talked about is the amount of precipitation next week. Early part of the week is mainly dry, but by the end of the week, a combination of the heat (daily maxes between 25C and 30C) and not particularly high pressure values could lead to some localised storms, particularly inland. I'm a bit loathe to use GFS rainfall charts but it's about the only thing I can use to show the potential:

Next weekend and beyond, aside GFS op plenty of settled charts around - but one has to be careful because when only average heights are in place, a breakdown scenario can emerge even at T144.

Too many subtle differences between the models to make a call at the moment. Given the GFS has temperatures reaching 32C by the end of the week with weak heights, then it's no surprise to see some thunderstorms breaking out towards the west where the air is unstable.

I feel a tad disappointed, not particularly with the conditions for the UK, but again the feeling that one or more models have gone rogue and automatically pushing higher heights towards Greenland.

Will this happen? I wouldn't be surprised to see a near vertical ridge come the morning runs, unfortunately we have seen this too often this summer.

The GEM

This looks pretty reasonable to me, with regard to this.

 

The conclusion more is that the following week will probably be dominated by higher heights to the north/north east with an easterly flow. Again little changes in the positioning of the surface and upper pattern will determine how warm/hot it will be. This also will determine the chances of sharp showers and thunderstorms breaking out.

 

The next issue is the Atlantic pattern. As I've mentioned previously, we still have a little tropical feature to deal with

ECM shows this well, The GFS is further north and weaker, the GEM further still and the UKMO shows nothing. Again this low might determine whether or not we see another push of heights from the Azores and to what extent it happens.

 

Overall there is plenty of interest there for fans of warm/hot and thundery weather, and before then we have this coming weekend which still looks like being epic.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

First signs of the thunderstorms coming in to the south very early Saturday morning on tonight's NMM highest temperatures this weekend the further east you are

 

 

Move on 5 hours and they start to become more widespread in the south

 

 

By 11am we have 2 areas for the rain and Thunderstorms one is for the NE the second is for the west

 

 

By Saturday afternoon the western side continues with these thunderstorms and some torrential rain, more heavy showers maybe thundery kicking off in parts of the south as the heat builds

 

 

By Saturday evening the band of torrential rain continues its journey up the west into western Scotland, scattered heavy possibly thundery showers for southern England and Wales

 

 

Into Sunday and the main focus for rain shifts to the SE initially

 

 

The rain slowly moves north wards by early afternoon with scattered heavy showers developing in the south

 

 

As others have said although we'll have a thundery breakdown this weekend it doesn't look like it will shift the heat away further very warm / hot weather looks likely well into next week

 

Very good ensemble from ECM showing pressure building early next week and lasting for a lengthy time

 

Edited July 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SP1986]

Looks pretty cool around western coastal areas (below average!)

[bluearmy]

stunning ecm fi mean and spreads not too shabby either (if you're after high heights)