Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[Just Before Dawn]

 

 

 

The charts again do look fantastic for yorkshire and continue to show quite a few hours of heavy snow but time will tell if metoffice release any warnings!

 

Looking at 850's and dew points, 00z Op run looks like it would be a wintery mix at best east of say, the A1 (unless you have altitude - North York Moors look less marginal), whereas west of the A1, it looks progressively more favourable, at least with some altitude.

 

Last night down here had temps and dews more favourable for snow than those predicted for Tuesday night/Wednesday and we had sleet at best, so I'm really not expecting much other than rain in this location. 

[Harsh Climate]

GFS snow charts are so wildly different to the actual forecast (at least for Leeds). Charts show snow Tuesday night and all day Wednesday - some with really strong chance of snow. Met Office and BBC say no snow at all Wednesday.

 

*shrugs*

 

 

I expect a met office warning for tuesday/wednesday later this morning. Still looks good for north/west and south yorkshire!  Not been IMBY but above 100m western parts of west/north yorkshire looks very good.

[NW Leeds Russ]

Good stuff Jed. Heading to Otley early Wednesday morning for my work so should be tasty.

That's if I can get out of our cul de sac. Sheet ice and snow here. Sunny now though. Temp 0.8c

[alanwh]

Looks like latest charts suggesting heaviest snow to south west of our region. Midlands with elevation being the sweet spots.

Hope we get a slight correction north.

[alanwh]

It'll be interesting what the meto lunchtime update will be possibly a yellow warning for west South Yorks but I so hope it comes further North.

[inghams85]

All i can think is the higher resolution precipitation models the met are using are suggesting no snow without good elevation. I've never know them be at such odds with the models we can see at such short notice

[summer blizzard]

24 hours of snow if the GFS is to be believed.

[alanwh]

All i can think is the higher resolution precipitation models the met are using are suggesting no snow without good elevation. I've never know them be at such odds with the models we can see at such short notice

Me neither, maybe they are really nervous about making a judgement call until they really have to and are remaining uber cautious about causing undue panic ?

[michb1]

Been snowing here in Lincoln for 1/2 hour but not settling despite it being 0 degrees here. Hope we get some this week that wants to stay around!

[LeeSnowFan]

:wallbash: :wallbash: hmmmmm unsure what is gonna happen tomorrow and Wednesday

[alanwh]

:wallbash: :wallbash: hmmmmm unsure what is gonna happen tomorrow and Wednesday

Just been on Midlands thread and their local forecasts suggesting mainly rain for them so there is certainly a lot of confusion around

amazing conflict between the models to say how close we are to the event.

[NorthYorksWeather]

I just came on here for clarification of tomorrow nights event and I'm none the wiser, MetO forecasting 6 hours of heavy snow, which is reflected in the Gfs output, NMM shows the precip light and patchy and only accumilating on higher ground, the metoffice wording in there text forecast mentions snow showers when it looks more like a band to me. Unless it's showers as the band breaks up as it heads east. Eagerly waiting the warnings. Just a few cm top up would be nice

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Roll on spring

[chrisb1357]

Just been on Midlands thread and their local forecasts suggesting mainly rain for them so there is certainly a lot of confusion around

amazing conflict between the models to say how close we are to the event.

 

I need a rest from the Midlands thread as its looking very near to it being Snow or Rain event

Edited January 19, 2015 by chrisb1357

[CasMan]

Latest NMM showing precip not making it over pennines on 6Z on left compared to 0Z on right to my very untrained eye. Roll it on a few frames and it just sort of spins round not moving towards yorkshire

 

 

 

[terrier]

Not really expecting anything tommorow to be honest for us. Looks to be a very week feature. Then looking towards weekend seems we're going back into the mild atlantic. I'm pretty close now to giving up on winter. It promised so much but has delivered very little. yes we still have feb March to go but I'm not holding out much hope.

[cheese]

Not really expecting anything tommorow to be honest for us. Looks to be a very week feature. Then looking towards weekend seems we're going back into the mild atlantic. I'm pretty close now to giving up on winter. It promised so much but has delivered very little. yes we still have feb March to go but I'm not holding out much hope.

Uh.. please check the model output before posting. Looks like any return to the Atlantic will be short-lived, as things currently stand. BBC also shows heavy snow on Tuesday night.

[saint]

Tomorrow night is clearly up in the air at the moment, and with the METO not even sure, I don;t think tomorrow night is any guarantee for anyone just yet. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Latest meto precip maps out till 21.00 tomorrow, shows the band west of the Pennines in pretty good shape, how I progresses eastwards is what I wanna know!

[tayzi]

I think this time METO are in exactly the same position as us all...not a sausage how its going to pan out. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

As I have posted elsewhere, the only warnings out for snow tomorrow night are for South West Scotland at present.

We shall see if this changes after the next set of model runs...

[Cold Winter]

Appears to be a rotational pattern with these showers off the coast, is there meant to be any sort of low pressure nearby (I haven't looked at charts for a few days and can't currently!).

[Mark Griffin]

I'm interested to know what that leading wave in front of the main front is called?  It peps up the local precipitation as it goes through on the radar. 

[bella09]

What time does the next model run come out, looking forward to your updated information

[Mark Bayley]

Not really expecting anything tommorow to be honest for us. Looks to be a very week feature. Then looking towards weekend seems we're going back into the mild atlantic. I'm pretty close now to giving up on winter. It promised so much but has delivered very little. yes we still have feb March to go but I'm not holding out much hope.

 

Agreed to an extent. All models (GFS now included) have only a weak band of precipitation reaching our region. I'd have a punt at West Yorkshire 2-4cm, with South Yorkshire possibly a little higher at 4-6cm (being closer to the heavier precipitation). The Pennies doing a little at 5-10cm. East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire to get nothing to a cm or two. Western Sheffield is probably in the best location, although even here nothing of significance. Based on the GFS my estimations are probably on the higher side. 

 

Edited January 19, 2015 by Mark Bayley