Scotland - Weather Chat

[Guest]

Can I have the 100mph gusts please? much appreciated!   

 

I know where you're coming from with this, it's the noise the wind makes from on high when it's gusting at 90mph+, quite something.

[Polar Gael]

Does Friday's incoming beastie have a name yet?

[Guest]

Does Friday's incoming beastie have a name yet?

 

Hurricane MistyQueen, it's had her name all over it for a week now

[Ceitidh]

Don't think my daughter has picked a good weekend to fly to Dublin on Friday for her first 'girly' weekend away weather wise !

[lorenzo]

What a lot of weather to keep tabs on in such a short space of time. 

 

Berlin have named this beastie - Elon. ( It's Ellon ya numpties).

 

Amber warned and good that it is all over the news and Met Office warnings in place, always wonder if something of this severity warrants a Red?

 

An explosive looking trough on afternoon fax, am sure that will serve either to keep folks awake or as a very early morning alarm call.

 

Saturday

The faxes are pretty remarkable in themselves after this first blast we get a second serving with more direct cold.

 

That second chart with a perfect westerly and eventually the Arctic air blast drives through, again another active trough inbound.

 

Exciting charts, but really violent looking - clear stingjet potential, another example of where the fascination with watching bomb systems is tempered by the reality of what they can deliver. Hope we have no horrible news reports to read later.

 

Edit - next on the list is Felix. http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by lorenzo

[tinybill]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-inshore-waters/#?tab=map

 

hi just poped  in  met  office  talking a about  hurricane   force  winds      force  12   be  safe

Edited January 7, 2015 by tinybill

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sustained winds on the ECM for tomorrow night are pretty terrifying too - storm force winds (60mph) for Stornoway in the early hours:

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Stornoway/hour_by_hour.html

Sting jet potential too according to Ian F, certainly looks pretty intense with a pressure gradient of 10mb between southern Skye and Stornoway:

A reminder of the last sting jet event from January 2012:

compared to:

 

If the low ends up further south we could end up seeing something even worse than that event in severity or at least something similar, bad enough with the positioning of the low as it is though and if it doesn't end up much further north than currently modelled we could well be in for a red warning (I believe one was almost belatedly put out for the last storm as the sting jet was picked up on pretty late in the day but the MO are thankfully more on top of things this time round).

[Daniel*]

Potentially destructive area may be small but there are communities at risk, it's not all sheep and what have you as you are lead to believe on the MOD thread, life may be at risk so I struggle to see how red will not arise unless any sudden big shifts.?? Stay safe all. Fergie highlighted there could still be upgrades.

[NUT]

I've said it before.. Janurary 2012 (Hurricane Bawbag as it became known) we've had pretty violent wind storms before but for everything we've had 2012 was the only time i've known the wind to be so strong it actually blew roof tiles off. I don't think it will be as bad as that here but still pretty blowy (half past 5 dog walk friday morning might be fun)

[jellybaby1969]

i noticed on XC weather they have snow forecast next week for ayr , didn't expect that.. however going to be a rough few days weather wise

I will eat my hat if there is snow on the coast between Irvine and Ayr !! Although head too cumnock it could be white !

[BurntFishTrousers]

BAWBAG II ©

[Hairy Celt]

Holy super duper. Been busy the last couple of days, just looked at the forecast wind speed for the first time since Monday and it looks like sustained 65mph here tomorrow night.  I'm off to bed soon to prepare with some extra sleep.  Then to figure out how to safely photograph windiness at night

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I'm starting work at 5am on Friday morning - 2 mile walk up the road to Springburn should be interesting. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

 

Don't mind me, just scanning through past charts to compare strength to this one. Post to follow...

Ok, so of those only the original 'Bawbag' (which turned out to be nothing compared to the January 3rd storm) looks comparable in terms of wind gusts. Having looked back to the thread for the night of the 2nd January 2012 there was almost no sign of a major storm, at least in the sense that we were discussing snow chances rather than wind gusts (par for the course though really with us  ). The NMM for tomorrow night gives this:

so comparable to original Bawbag for the central belt (GFS para looks a bit worse around midnight for the Forth, maybe hitting 80-90mph gusts) but far worse for the north and west, and it is there that you'd be likely to see a sting jet descend. I've found this paper on sting jets, which has a look at some of the criteria associated with them: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010MWR3290.1 so I'm planning on having a look through the mesoscale models to see if we're getting close to the required parameters, but the MO are undoubtedly monitoring it very closely this time with their own high res. models.

 

For Friday night the most intense gusts look a bit less severe and further north but a similar or slightly more severe story as far as wind gusts for the central belt, maybe hurricane force gusts in the early hours of Saturday in Glasgow (pretty gusty for central Ireland too):

 

For Saturday itself, showers turning wintry but with freezing levels not really getting down to levels conducive to low ground lying snow until after 6pm:

and by morning some accumulations (showers generally not modelled to get very far east although we'll see when this gets into mesoscale range):

Tuesday continues to look better for wintry, as opposed to windy, potential - freezing levels well down, winds due westerly and precipitation quite widely:

  

 

 

A few more bits of eye candy from that run, with a frontal rain to snow event Wednesday night:

more snow showers coming into the west behind:

and more snow into Friday:

 

Too far out to pin down the details of course but potential for quite a wintry week, with perhaps more to follow into next weekend and the week after.

Edited January 7, 2015 by LomondSnowstorm

[A Winter's Tale]

It sounded bad enough outside half an hour ago, can't imagine what Thurs night/Fri am will be like and I'm only in SE scotland. North and West take care

How does this upcoming storm compare to those last year and in 2011/2012. For a while I've been aware of a potentially nasty storm brewing to the NW sometime this week but I haven't really payed much attention to its severity and potency. Hopefully this doesn't turn out as bad as current charts suggest, the prospect of 100mph winds is very worrying and should perhaps warrant a red warning.

[Cheggers]

What a miserable day indeed, stiff wind with driving rain, and the knowledge that today was a gentle breeze against what is about to hit.

 

Remember 3 Jan 2012 well, kids woke screaming at 6am as the wind made the house shake, and tiles flying around taking cars oot etc. Stay safe people.

[Jo Farrow]

How does this upcoming storm compare to those last year and in 2011/2012. For a while I've been aware of a potentially nasty storm brewing to the NW sometime this week but I haven't really payed much attention to its severity and potency. Hopefully this doesn't turn out as bad as current charts suggest, the prospect of 100mph winds is very worrying and should perhaps warrant a red warning.

There won't be a red Met Office warning until after 11am thurs am, if one comes. It is an imminent thing, and Amber is severe in itself

M.O. Red: Take action. Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruption and risk to life is likely. You must avoid dangerous areas and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities

[Iceni]

There won't be a red Met Office warning until after 11am thurs am, if one comes. It is an imminent thing, and Amber is severe in itself

M.O. Red: Take action. Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruption and risk to life is likely. You must avoid dangerous areas and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities

Bad news for me. I'm going through a pretty tough time personally and my best friends moved to Dundee. Her texts and emails are keeping me on life support ATM so if there are power cuts in the area, they'll stop.... Oh well, I'll just have to weather the storm. East Anglia is as dull as ditch water literally. Mud everywhere.

This sounds very self centred so I hope you all stay safe and don't have too much disruption. My poor friends whole house relies on an electric heating system with just one wood-burning stove, so if there are power cuts they'll have a miserable time. Perhaps they'll have to flee south and I'll have company - every cloud :-)

PS As a vet of the 87 hurricane in West Sussex and if you live on a hill, the best advice is to fill your bath with water while you still have power. Your tap water is pumped uphill with electricity and if that's knocked out, you'll only have what's in your tank. Of course I didn't know that and like a dummy had a big hot bath after helping our neighbours clear the trees which had blocked the lane. An hour later, we turned on a tap and nothing came out of it. And didn't for another week. You live and learn.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Iceni

[mistyqueen]

Hurricane MistyQueen, it's had her name all over it for a week now

 

MWAHAHAHAAAAA! And guess what guys? It's 4.25am and there is not a breath of wind out there. I am saving it all up for something truly spectacular!      On a more serious note, this wee breeze is going to affect just about every area in Auld Scotia, so please Peeps....do take care out there.

[Guest]

Very strong hints of Jan 1993 in the charts...

 

'93 first, then ECM +168hrs. Not as bad as '93 but not that far off it. The 1993 chart brought several inches of drifting snow to Glasgow, let alone the rest of the west of the country.

 

Edited January 8, 2015 by CatchMyDrift

[lorenzo]

It's beginning to look a little sporty on satelitte

 

Nice diagrams on this link of the stages the system will go through as it intensifies

 

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm?/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/RaCy/

 

 

Winds perhaps down ever so slightly but nothing to warrant any changes in awareness needed. Saturday NMM model shows snow showers streaming in from mid-day through til midnight, another nowcast for how far they track across the country.

 

Will be whiteout conditions somewhere, that is for sure.

 

The yrno animation will again look stunning later today.

[Mesosphere]

Met Office warnings issued at 1013 - amber extended 

 

Forth-Clyde Valley looking rough 

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run rapidly east passing northern Scotland on Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds will begin to increase late on Thursday to give a period of very strong westerly winds through the Forth-Clyde valley, with gusts 60-70 mph quite widely, and isolated gusts to 80 mph. Winds should quickly ease from the west during the morning.

The public should be prepared for the potential for disruption to transport, and are advised to check latest forecasts before travelling. Power supplies may also be affected and there is the possibility of structural damage.

 

Bawbag Jr?

Edited January 8, 2015 by Mesosphere

[NUT]

More lively showers here although nothing compared to the blow that's coming quite soon I guess

[Jo Farrow]

Met Office warnings issued at 1013 - amber extended 

 

Forth-Clyde Valley looking rough 

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run rapidly east passing northern Scotland on Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds will begin to increase late on Thursday to give a period of very strong westerly winds through the Forth-Clyde valley, with gusts 60-70 mph quite widely, and isolated gusts to 80 mph. Winds should quickly ease from the west during the morning.

The public should be prepared for the potential for disruption to transport, and are advised to check latest forecasts before travelling. Power supplies may also be affected and there is the possibility of structural damage.

 

Bawbag Jr?

80mph gusts closes the Forth road bridge completely

[Ravelin]

Blue skies here this morning at the moment and stayed a few degrees above freezing overnight. Calm before the storm sort of stuff. Glad we're out of the main firing line although it's still going to be pretty windy here from late tonight until Saturday night by the looks of it.