North West England - Weather Chat

[captaincroc]

These are for 9pm tonight....yes marginal but look ok for snow.  Dew points at or below 0 and -5 850's.

 

 

[pip22]

snowing here! never expected that

That answers my question!!

[The snowman]

Yay met office forecasting snow showers to low levels tomorrow night-nothing better than the anticipation of snow when you don't have to get up for work the next morning or have to travel in it-glass of wine PJs on, heating on full and the snowflakes falling bliss!!!-I love snow but, when your worried if you will get home or not or, dreading having to drive to work in it (self employed so can't just phone in and say I can't make it in) it's much better when you don't have to worry

[karyo]

Yay met office forecasting snow showers to low levels tomorrow night-nothing better than the anticipation of snow when you don't have to get up for work the next morning or have to travel in it-glass of wine PJs on, heating on full and the snowflakes falling bliss!!!-I love snow but, when your worried if you will get home or not or, dreading having to drive to work in it (self employed so can't just phone in and say I can't make it in) it's much better when you don't have to worry

Agreed! I stayed up till 2am so when the alarm went off at 7:30 I wanted to throw it our of the window! However, beggars can't be choosers so I'll happily receive it anytime.

[SparkleS]

Clouded over again here after a beautiful sunny day, getting quite cold again now.

That answers my question!!

What questions that?

[itsnowjoke]

Clouding over now sky looks snowy or is that just wishful thinking??

[SparkleS]

Clouding over now sky looks snowy or is that just wishful thinking??

It looks snowy to me too

[Will Padz]

â„ï¸ Can see the showers out west/nw....â„ï¸â„ï¸ Got huge clumps of snow falling off roof, wonder if we will have the roof avalanche we had week back, made huge roar and then massive pile of snow! Hit one of our neighbours haha....

[pip22]

Clouded over again here after a beautiful sunny day, getting quite cold again now.

What questions that?

I ask a question last page. I said when is the mild sector move out?

[Will Padz]

Meander around glossop and hadfield this morning.... Train was cancelled so went to mettricks butcher and got friday steak night dinner!

More snow in hadfield town centre than glossop town centre, slushfest..... Managing to keep snow up here but temp is now on the fall....

[robbo88]

Surprisingly still got a good inch atleast of snow left after the drizzle and sun today. Paths and side roads are a slushfest. Gunna be dangerous tonight when it all refreezes!

I'd love more snow, but feeling content atm after the last 24 hours!

[itsnowjoke]

It looks snowy to me too

i thought so but I can see blue sky again now lol

[Spah1]

Round 2 tomorrow night then???. I'll get the beers in.

[griff74]

It's been a lovely sunny afternoon here in Manc CC but it's VERY cold when that wind blows, ice cold, brrrrrrrrr

[Will Padz]

Longdendale trail first thing!

[Snowy L]

Looks good on Saturday night, but I'm more hopeful of the Monday night/Tuesday potential snow event.

[Dr. Astro]

Longdendale trail first thing!

Will,

 

thats really nice, where is that - is it suitable for dogs ?

 

Edit - Realise where it is now, wanted to do that a few weeks ago - is it full of snow ?

 

If so, i'll do that circular walk tomorrow.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dr. Astro

[karyo]

Ironically, the 12z GFS has a heavy band of precipitation over us tomorrow morning (when the uppers will be above -5c) and a light fragmented band for tomorrow night when the colder uppers will be moving in.

[DIS1970]

Looks good on Saturday night, but I'm more hopeful of the Monday night/Tuesday potential snow event.

Look at the latest GFS, you may be disappointed.

[Spah1]

Tuesdays trough doesn't reach us as I understand it.

[Dr. Astro]

Think some of you need to take a step waaaaay back instead of analysing each run and taking it as Gospel.

 

Read Fergie's post..

 

 

Some clarity re Mon-Tues. Some people here seem to be over-reacting to how UKMO warnings are currently laid-out, plus perhaps some misinterpretation of modelling.

The current warnings into Tuesday (in particular) show E coastal threat of snow showers, because there's higher confidence that the set-up will inevitably lead to these. Conversely, the warnings do NOT currently include anything else across the UK. This is NOT to be misconstrued as UKMO convinced there is no threat of disruptive weather elsewhere: indeed, far from it. It's merely because we are in a lull period - one of careful reflection, if you like(!) - to gather stock of what may or may not be looming into that period.

 

The threat of disruptive snow *somewhere*, currently rated as 40%, is evident from the UKMO-GM 06z output for Tuesday, with the development of a secondary feature signalled in a number of models (since yesterday) to feed south across western areas. This development evolves from a northward extension of a baroclinic zone, then being engaged and invigorated by a diffluent zone up aloft set to come out across Greenland and then over Iceland. Whilst cross-model support for the upper air pattern is good up to early Monday, the outcomes then diverge markedly - and these key upper sensitivities are crucial to what happens next. Anyone attempting to be prescriptive or offer detail on what will happen is simply bonkers, or misguided. This forecast headache isn't going to resolve speedily!

 

One thing that is quite evident, however, is how a continued veering of flow Mon-Tues will ensure the country sits under a reservoir of cold air with little scope for marginality in the sense of what we've had this week.

 

So, it's way, way too premature to either write-off snow prospects for W Country into Tuesday especially, nor 'big them up'. We are in a period of huge uncertainty.  I think the problem is folk seeing GFS runs through the day and over-reacting to each and every one, rather than taking a step back and appreciating the overall trend/patterns (as opposed to freaking-out over inter-run nuances way out at lead times of T+72+).

Edited January 30, 2015 by Dr. Astro

[gearbox100]

Been snow showers on and off here all day not ammounting to much and fast moving but snow all the same falling.

[Snowy L]

Look at the latest GFS, you may be disappointed.

 

Looking at GFS rain forecast at the best of days is ridiculously inaccurate, when there ppn is coming from a trough in an unstable airflow it's downright useless.

[itsnowjoke]

Gone cold here

[chicken soup]

A possible north easterly been mooted in model thread, i know easterlies are rubbish for us but not sure about north easterlies....anyone with more knowledge than i  know if there any use for us.......ta