Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

[chionomaniac]

The country has a measles rash on radar. Nothing organised or significant as of yet.

[Harry]

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Good start given its not even lunch time yet!

Agreed - beefy looking shower to the north of London. Been some fair to decent hearing from early sun too. Come 2-3pm should be some more robust downpours

Edit - first strikes showing up across far SE Scotland/NE England and South of London

Edited May 19, 2015 by Harry

[chionomaniac]

For anyone wanting a storm fix while waiting for one in this country, check out these clips from 'Brucie' on last nights NW storm chase in the US

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83157-chase-day-10-reports-and-picturesvideos/

 

I think for a moment they may have been a little concerned that they would be stuck in the flood whilst taking golf ball hail, LOL.

[BrickFielder]

   I think I am still favoring North Wales , Manchester and the North West Midlands late afternoon personally for any storms to develop. Steep lapse rates slowly spread south during the day.

   Triggering of more than a sharp shower seems to be either vorticity moving in across North Wales late on or low level convergence zones along the east coasts. Models don't seem to entirely agree on either of these options.

   So not all that convinced about low level convergence zones developing.

   I am a little more convinced by the vorticity advection at mid levels into the north wales area based on Satelite imagery.

  There is not much directional wind sheer except for perhaps northern east coasts like Cumbria and wind speeds at 925hpa and 500hpa are not much different.

   Surface temperatures (which should be taken with a pinch of salt in the sun does consistently break through) along with dewpoints are fairly poor. What I am struck by is the level of free convection on lightning wizards GFS based chart and the weak instability.

 

   So over all I am a little confused about what will happen. Due to the low temperatures I think any storms are more likely to be similar to early spring heavy showers, being less surface based and more mid level based. The zero degree isotherm is reasonably low so there is a good chance of some hail, but weak updrafts will limit hail size. Moderately high cloud tops should allow for some lightning. Its not a classic thunder storm situation and for many I think messy mid level convection might be all we see.

 

 

[<<Ryan>>]

Heard one distant rumble about 10 minutes ago and now have a heavy hail shower, winds are pretty gusty too.

[Mapantz]

I've just driven back from Bournemouth, hail and torrential rain all the way. No thunder though, not much happening on that front.

[Convective]

I'll have a go... Not a hard one to cover though so almost anywhere could get something:

 

[snowprincesspboro]

few sferics showing up now soo hoping to get a storm here sat watching peppa pig and the thunderstorm to get in the mood   (love toddlers haha)

[Harry]

YAHOO BROKEN MY DUCK! Awesome double fork just over S London :yahoo:

[Robbie Garrett]

YAHOO BROKEN MY DUCK! Awesome double fork just over S London :yahoo:

Same. Right, slow start this year. Lets hope for a big one.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Huge anvil of that storm over London I can see it from here

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very impressive hail shower experienced near Bourne (Lincs), couple of rumbles too. Another 3 hours of peak heating yet to come aswell!

Looking good.

[Panayiotis]

Radar really looking good now, convection has really got going in the last 2 hours...very interesting afternoon to come...

[snow raven]

YAHOO BROKEN MY DUCK! Awesome double fork just over S London :yahoo:

 

 

Same. Right, slow start this year. Lets hope for a big one.

 

Typical, I must have bloody blinked and missed it!! 

 

Where abouts in London are you both?  I'm on the Southbank, opposite Big Ben.  (and now the sun has come out!)

[Spikecollie]

Stunning CuNb cloudscapes on my flight out of LBA and into AMS. A couple of flashes coming into AMS. Hoping for more out to Nuremberg later this afternoon.

[Staffordshire]

This starting to kick off now,

BBC just use the word thunderstorms.

Wouldn't mind being anywhere from Northampton to essex/Suffolk for later.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very nice storm over Norwich now

[anything-but]

Some nice chunky clouds blowing through central London with some sharp bursts this afternoon.

[Harry]

Typical, I must have bloody blinked and missed it!! 

 

Where abouts in London are you both?  I'm on the Southbank, opposite Big Ben.  (and now the sun has come out!)

 

I'm based at Cannon Street. I have a pretty much unrestricted view of the northern and eastern skylines from my desk, I can see the southern skyline if I walk round to the meeting rooms

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

How I see this afternoon 

[Chloe]

Thunder

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Norwich is the place to be!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Cool 😎

[Pat Butcher]

There's a massive anvil sat over Leeds at the moment, as well as some disorganised convective mess towards LBA. I'd be surprised if we got more than a rumble or two but it's spectacular to look at. It'll be a bumpy ride for anyone flying in!

[Harry]

Stunning skyline coming into London from the WNW - gorgeous deep blue core with a nice brilliant white fluffy anvil above.